To respond to some of your points, local distribution might indeed be a solution to local water shortages. But by "drought" I am looking at the disturbing trend of "supply exceeding demand" in for basic natural resources like water and oil. In the 1970 Mr. Malthus, might have sent people running for the hills with warnings of doom and gloom, but I keep on falling back on the disturbing idea that supply is exceeding demand for key natural resources that are the basis of the modern global economy.
Classical economic arguements, are as prices go up of item oil or water for example, then the market responds by building infrastructure to drill for more oil or build more infrastructure to capture and transport more water. Back in the 70's the only major consumers in the world were in the united states, westeren europe and japan. The total population of the consumer culture was on the order of 500 million people.
I'm not an economist, but one thing I don't see basic economic models is the idea of a limit from basic calculus. In the 1970's the usa, europe and japan were able to grow their economies and improve their lifestyles by borrowing resources from abroad. Economies grow by using natural resources like oil and water. For example using the concept of embodied water did you know it takes about 10 gals of water to make one computer chip.
The reason I have an uneasy gut feeling bad things rae in store, is because china and india are now beginning to consume just like the usa, europe and japan. So the total number of consumers in a consumer economy is now over 2.5 billion people. To give you an idea of the scale of the problem, the average person in the USA uses about 100 gals of water per day, and the total oil used per capita is something over 20 barrels of oil (1 barrel = 42 gal), in china and india the average useage is a magnitude less for both water and oil (but demand in those emerging markets is going up).
I've actually been in more than my fair share of 3rd world countries, and can understand why they envy and want the american life style of cars, cheap food, big homes, etc. But when I did basic calculations of the the embodied energy required to sustain the average american life style and balanced them out with existing know resources, the numbers indicate that something will eventually have to give. My basic analysis is too much money in the USA is spent on consumer goods (which consume large amounts of natural resources), but not enought is being "invested" in basic infrastructure, R&D and directed technology to sustain the current consumer life style in USA. In effect this present generation is borrowing resources from future generations, its akin to the bad management decisions made in the subprime mess. When fundamentals and conservative management is ignored then is going to be hell to pay.
As far as appealing to religious groups, I'm not quite sure if candy coating the problems of natural resource management is the best strategy in the long run. During the cold war and even after the 9/11 attack, people were motivated by fear which I think is a much more powerful force in terms of humans trying to do something.
FOr example, let's say a balanced diet and exercist is a good thing. Ever notice that 2/3 of the american public is overweight and unfit, btw that figure in what I've read in more than a few news articles. I've also read that heart diesease is the number one cause of premature death in the USA on the order 400,000. Most people if polled would say diet and exercise is a good thing but they really don't follo
climate change is such a nebulous that has no real meaning to most people, besides it is a topic that is pretty damn complex, and who has the time to care about "climate change" when a consumer based society has so many other sexy diversions that offer instant gratification....
I was just thinkng about another tax idea I'd have to encourage investing long term in the stock market, as it stands there is 15% tax on stocks held for 1 year (that is the long terms cap gains rate)
too many people look at stock markets as a way to make money quickly, its called momentum trading (in and out of a stock in a short time frame). I'd try and restore some order in the markets and have people try and consider the long term "stable" approach. So I'd have a long term cap gains tax at the current historic low of 15%, but for only for investments held for a period of 6 years, a medium cap gains rate of 28% for stocks and investments held for 1 year and a top rate of 38% (which is the top tax rate I think right now) for all other stock or investment sales held less than 1 year.
I think a three tier tax on investments like this, would help remove some of the volatility in the equity markets, and I think a similar tax structure like this could work for real estate, so people would not try and flip homes, which is one reason we had/have a little problem with subprime loans and the financial markets.
yeah I know the president can't make laws, but this would be part of marshal law I'd mandate to try and help the system invest for the long term....
If I were president, the first thing I would do is declare a sort of marshal law because there are major problems with the environment, and with current system of political BS in washington with lobbyist and the old boy network of politics nothing really get done...
By executive order, I'd term limit all elected officials that way there would be no entrenced political BS, for example
the president (1) six year term - that way he does not have to worry about re-election and can concentrate on the job at hand
a state senator would have (1) six year term - that way he does not have to worry about re-election and can concentrate on the job at hand
a state representative in the house would have (1) three year term - ditto
this would get rid of political lifers, and I'd try and lead by example.
To make sure the transition of power goes somewhat smooth, I would mandate all elected officials to serve a 1 year internship with the official they were going to replace, that way they have some kind of institutional insight what the job will require and learn what works and what does not work. Since there are two state senitors, I'd have there terms overlap (so a senator would be a jr the first three years, then a sr senator the last three)
During an elected officials internship, since I think there has not been enough scientific knowledge and too much legal BS in government, so I would require all elected officials to take basic math, physics, chemistry, biology and world history exams (say basic freshman college level exams), and post the score for the public to see that officials have some basic knowledge and understand (a side benefit would be since people are competive who knows they might even be driven to learn, and show how smart they are).
For my own personal term in office, I would be dedicaed to one topic, investing in the environment!
Water is not a sexy subject and most people don't realize that 97 percent of all water is in the oceans. ONLY three percent of all Earth's water that is freshwater. The majority of the freshwater, about 69 percent, is locked up in glaciers and icecaps, mainly in Greenland and Antarctica. You might be surprised that of the remaining freshwater, almost all of it is below your feet, as ground water. No matter where on Earth you are standing, chances are that, at some depth, the ground below you is saturated with water. Of all the freshwater on Earth, only about 0.3 percent is contained in rivers and lakes.
To put this into perspective, if 100 liters represented all the water in the world, then only about a shot glass full would be all the fresh water available for our use!
Slashdot Mirror
I realize that history is filled with doom and gloom types, and I really hope my basic analysis is wrong. But for some nagging reason the more I look at the problem, the more I find several trends trends that do not bode well for the general population of the US as well as large segements of the global population, perhaps I am a nut case that has kinda obsessed looking at the current data.
To respond to some of your points, local distribution might indeed be a solution to local water shortages. But by "drought" I am looking at the disturbing trend of "supply exceeding demand" in for basic natural resources like water and oil. In the 1970 Mr. Malthus, might have sent people running for the hills with warnings of doom and gloom, but I keep on falling back on the disturbing idea that supply is exceeding demand for key natural resources that are the basis of the modern global economy.
Classical economic arguements, are as prices go up of item oil or water for example, then the market responds by building infrastructure to drill for more oil or build more infrastructure to capture and transport more water. Back in the 70's the only major consumers in the world were in the united states, westeren europe and japan. The total population of the consumer culture was on the order of 500 million people.
I'm not an economist, but one thing I don't see basic economic models is the idea of a limit from basic calculus. In the 1970's the usa, europe and japan were able to grow their economies and improve their lifestyles by borrowing resources from abroad. Economies grow by using natural resources like oil and water. For example using the concept of embodied water did you know it takes about 10 gals of water to make one computer chip.
The reason I have an uneasy gut feeling bad things rae in store, is because china and india are now beginning to consume just like the usa, europe and japan. So the total number of consumers in a consumer economy is now over 2.5 billion people. To give you an idea of the scale of the problem, the average person in the USA uses about 100 gals of water per day, and the total oil used per capita is something over 20 barrels of oil (1 barrel = 42 gal), in china and india the average useage is a magnitude less for both water and oil (but demand in those emerging markets is going up).
I've actually been in more than my fair share of 3rd world countries, and can understand why they envy and want the american life style of cars, cheap food, big homes, etc. But when I did basic calculations of the the embodied energy required to sustain the average american life style and balanced them out with existing know resources, the numbers indicate that something will eventually have to give. My basic analysis is too much money in the USA is spent on consumer goods (which consume large amounts of natural resources), but not enought is being "invested" in basic infrastructure, R&D and directed technology to sustain the current consumer life style in USA. In effect this present generation is borrowing resources from future generations, its akin to the bad management decisions made in the subprime mess. When fundamentals and conservative management is ignored then is going to be hell to pay.
As far as appealing to religious groups, I'm not quite sure if candy coating the problems of natural resource management is the best strategy in the long run. During the cold war and even after the 9/11 attack, people were motivated by fear which I think is a much more powerful force in terms of humans trying to do something.
FOr example, let's say a balanced diet and exercist is a good thing. Ever notice that 2/3 of the american public is overweight and unfit, btw that figure in what I've read in more than a few news articles. I've also read that heart diesease is the number one cause of premature death in the USA on the order 400,000. Most people if polled would say diet and exercise is a good thing but they really don't follo
climate change is such a nebulous that has no real meaning to most people, besides it is a topic that is pretty damn complex, and who has the time to care about "climate change" when a consumer based society has so many other sexy diversions that offer instant gratification....
BTW if ya look
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=417574&cid=22046410
environmental issues are kinda my concern too cause I'm 100% sure that unsustainable conspicuous consumption of natural basic resources (like water and oil) will eventually lead to a proverbial hell on earth for those people who get stuck with the mismanagement mess of mankind not being stewards of the environment.
I was just thinkng about another tax idea I'd have to encourage investing long term in the stock market, as it stands there is 15% tax on stocks held for 1 year (that is the long terms cap gains rate)
too many people look at stock markets as a way to make money quickly, its called momentum trading (in and out of a stock in a short time frame). I'd try and restore some order in the markets and have people try and consider the long term "stable" approach. So I'd have a long term cap gains tax at the current historic low of 15%, but for only for investments held for a period of 6 years, a medium cap gains rate of 28% for stocks and investments held for 1 year and a top rate of 38% (which is the top tax rate I think right now) for all other stock or investment sales held less than 1 year.
I think a three tier tax on investments like this, would help remove some of the volatility in the equity markets, and I think a similar tax structure like this could work for real estate, so people would not try and flip homes, which is one reason we had/have a little problem with subprime loans and the financial markets.
yeah I know the president can't make laws, but this would be part of marshal law I'd mandate to try and help the system invest for the long term....
If I were president, the first thing I would do is declare a sort of marshal law because there are major problems with the environment, and with current system of political BS in washington with lobbyist and the old boy network of politics nothing really get done...
By executive order, I'd term limit all elected officials that way there would be no entrenced political BS, for example
the president (1) six year term - that way he does not have to worry about re-election and can concentrate on the job at hand
a state senator would have (1) six year term - that way he does not have to worry about re-election and can concentrate on the job at hand
a state representative in the house would have (1) three year term - ditto
this would get rid of political lifers, and I'd try and lead by example.
To make sure the transition of power goes somewhat smooth, I would mandate all elected officials to serve a 1 year internship with the official they were going to replace, that way they have some kind of institutional insight what the job will require and learn what works and what does not work. Since there are two state senitors, I'd have there terms overlap (so a senator would be a jr the first three years, then a sr senator the last three)
During an elected officials internship, since I think there has not been enough scientific knowledge and too much legal BS in government, so I would require all elected officials to take basic math, physics, chemistry, biology and world history exams (say basic freshman college level exams), and post the score for the public to see that officials have some basic knowledge and understand (a side benefit would be since people are competive who knows they might even be driven to learn, and show how smart they are).
For my own personal term in office, I would be dedicaed to one topic, investing in the environment!
As it stands the global demand for basic resources like oil and water is far out pacing limited global suppies. For example in the southeast united states, the is just a little bit of a demend imbalance with water supplies, as it stands I give the atlanta region just about a year before the shit hits the fan, because water demand is pretty quickly depleating water supplies.
so far elected officials don't have the balls to take a stand or make a plan to deal with a worst case scenario, even FOX news has a report "No Backup Water Plan in Place for Drought-Stricken Atlanta"
Water is not a sexy subject and most people don't realize that 97 percent of all water is in the oceans. ONLY three percent of all Earth's water that is freshwater. The majority of the freshwater, about 69 percent, is locked up in glaciers and icecaps, mainly in Greenland and Antarctica. You might be surprised that of the remaining freshwater, almost all of it is below your feet, as ground water. No matter where on Earth you are standing, chances are that, at some depth, the ground below you is saturated with water. Of all the freshwater on Earth, only about 0.3 percent is contained in rivers and lakes.
To put this into perspective, if 100 liters represented all the water in the world, then only about a shot glass full would be all the fresh water available for our use!
There is a similar problem with oil, BTW did you know it takes about 98 tons of biological matter in 1 gal of oil. As it stands the IEA is reporting that at current depleation rates oil production, peak oil might have occured or will occur within a short time frame, best case estimate is 40 years from now, but I'm not buying that...
now that ya have an idea about the concerns I have as president, I will try and direct the economy and society toward solutions...
as everyone knows, there are lots of bible thu