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I believe one of them was offering a trip around the Moon by Soyuz for a couple of hundred million dollars a while back. But that's about as far as current cheap Russian rockets can get.

Yup:

http://www.constellationservices.com/lunarexpresssmsystem.html

I believe SpaceX is designing their Dragon capsule to be eventually upgradeable to returns from lunar velocities and long-duration missions, as well.

What if Kennedy had set a lesser goal, such as orbiting the moon?

The Russians quite probably could have achieved with with Soyuz-based technology. We "know" this, sorta, because recently someone proposed putting a Soyuz capsule around the moon for a rich billionaire with $100m to spare.

The Soviets did have the Luna programme - including Luna 10, the first artificial satellite of the moon. Interestingly, they focussed on robot exploration of the moon and remote collection of samples - probably closer in principle to the methods that will be used for future exploration of other planets in our solar system than manned flights.

What if Kennedy had set a lesser goal, such as orbiting the moon?

The Russians quite probably could have achieved with with Soyuz-based technology. We "know" this, sorta, because recently someone proposed putting a Soyuz capsule around the moon for a rich billionaire with $100m to spare.

Now you're in the situation where both superpowers are orbiting the moon, which makes it a military race. You can drop stuff easily from lunar orbit down to the earth, so both powers have to remain there.

Assuming we hadn't ended up dead (this is a high risk alternate history) I suspect we'd be a lot further along in space travel and technology now.

Rich.

I think you're missing the point. Equipment and resources that were available in the 60s and 70s is no longer around.

The boosters and basic spacecraft exist, as does the docking system. A number of upper stages are also available, including the block DM, which was originally intended as a lunar upper stage, and is currently used for GEO launches on Proton and Zenit Sea Launch (OTOH, it has a less than stellar reliability record). So the development effort would essentially be hacking together existing parts, rather than breaking new ground.

I have no doubt if someone actually put the money on the table, the schedule would slip and the cost would rise (aerospace is just like software in that respect), but as a ballpack figure, it doesn't seem completely insane.

FWIW, a very similar mission profile was proposed a while back by Constellation Services International, see here: http://www.constellationservices.com/lunarexpresss msystem.html I don't know whether RSA just lifted the concept, or it is actually the same proposal being re-floated (or perhaps CSI lifted it from the Russians...)

There's an article over on MSNBC with more info about the moon trip proposal. It turns out that the mission design is basically the same one that Constellation Services International, a small California space firm, proposed to the Russians last year. It seems that the Russians have just taken the proposal and blown off CSI. You can see the older article about CSI's design (with a diagram showing how it'll work) here:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6558855/

From the newer article:

NBC News space analyst James Oberg wrote about the Lunar Express concept eight months ago: As laid out by Constellation Services International's Charles Miller, the passenger would first be brought up to the international space station aboard a modified Russian Soyuz craft. Then the Soyuz would make a rendezvous with a booster-equipped logistics module that has been sent into orbit separately. The beefed-up craft would make an elongated figure-8 course around the moon - not landing there, but slingshotting around to return to Earth.

Oberg was amazingly prescient when he wrote, "The obvious question is what would prevent the Russians, or some other international space business, from simply stealing the idea and blowing off Miller and his associates."

In an e-mail exchange with Oberg, Miller was "sorry to say" that CSI was not involved in the Russian round-the-moon project, reported by Moscow-based Channel 1 (in Russian) as well as the RIA Novosti news service.

Instead, the news reports say that Russia's Federal Space Agency and Energia, the prime contractor for much of the country's space hardware, are working on the project. Channel 1 says proceeds from the two-week, $100 million tour package would go toward building Russia's next-generation spaceship, the Kliper.

Yeah, we'll be helping them fund their program - again. Um, somewhat "unofficially". Not a bad thing, mind you.

Not to disparage the Sovs, they have their own problems. But the irony, both ways, is getting pretty thick at this point, and I'm not just talking about the cold war, either.

SB