Domain: csom.org
Stories and comments across the archive that link to csom.org.
Comments · 16
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Re:No, that's a job for the police!
We have a story of an AC about a single instance modded informative. We have an incident involving a pair of serial killers (raped and killed 12 people remember) being shot with a hunting rifle, yet the closest stories google can find are a snopes false granny story and a real robbery incident with a handgun (described by the NRA, who should know, as "among the more dramatic"), so somehow the story of shooting two serial killers doesn't fit in. Now, there are lots of people reading Slashdot, and it's possible that this is a true story, but there is no way it should be modded up without at least an account name to back it up. The advice given is extremely dangerous. If people stop helping each other then the "bad people will win".
Now, to the original AC, and assuming that this was a true story; Please think again about how you say what you say. Your sister may have made a misjudgement, but you have to come to terms with that and realise that what she did was the right thing and most of what happened to her was bad luck. There are ways she could have been more careful; but in the end everybody has to get involved, we have to take some risk and 99.9% of the time it works out fine. If we don't do that then horrible things happen:
- There have been experiments done where thousands of people will not help lost children and even those that do are terrified of the consequences.
- There are many stories like this one where a two year old girl died because a bricklayer was afraid to help.
- Random strangers get ignored on the street
- simple stories about jump starting cars will cease to exist (and I thank all those people who have helped me with mine)
It's not enough to just say "call the cops". There aren't enough cops to investigate every possible strange situation, they won't be able to come reliably if they to. Call the cops means that most of the time people will do nothing. Worse, we end up with a passive society of afraid people who can't act on their own and expect "the authorities" to do everything for them. And even worse, with media hysteria stories like this, we get a culture where those that intervene are considered abnormal or even begin to believe they will get into trouble. You say:
The world has changed. If you are nice, you will be taken advantage of by those who aren't.
Yes; according to the US Department of Justice, the world has changed; it's much safer than it used to be.
The rate of reported rape among women decreased by 10% from 1990 to 1995 (80 per 100,000 compared to 72 per 100,000) (Greenfeld, 1997). In 1995, 97,460 forcible rapes were reported to the police nationwide, representing the lowest number of reported rapes since 1989.
Instead, we have to teach people a bit of a different lesson. Be extremely careful about interactions which are initiated by the other side. Make a visible call to a friend; give the license plate and description of the car that you are going to help. Single women don't help groups of men on their own without first making a call. Single men (who are actually most subject to violence) are careful too. Use judgement. But in the end, most of the time you just have to take some risk in life.
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Re:Free speech
I think your assumption is wrong on this one. Robbery has recidivism rates after 3 years of about 70% while sex offenders are at about 12%
I have noticed a lot of people saying things similar about how sex offenders are the most likely to recommit, but when compared to the criminal population at large, I haven't seen anyone back that statement up with a reference. -
Re:Yes this makes perfect sense
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Re:Duh.
Your reasoning is sound, but I don't think that's good enough (if we don't look at actual statistics when dealing with law, if we instead go with our guts, we'll eventually do something really, really bad.)
http://www.csom.org/pubs/recidsexof.html
This indicates that you're right. Compared to other sex offenders, the recidivism rates for child molestoes are higher. However that doesn't negate the fact that sex offenders as a whole (including child molesters) have an overall lower recidivism rate than other criminals. The issue I take is with the fact that the recidivism rate is lower, yet we as a society do so much more to them after they're released from prison. Why isn't there a registry of murderers? Robbers? They're more likely[1] to re-offend.
As I mentioned earlier, it's probably due to the heinous nature of the crime. Some people believe rape to be more heinous than murder. Is that enough of a reason?
It is certainly possible, as I believe you suggested, that the reason sex offenders are targeted is specifically to protect the children. However, most sex offender registries do note the nature of the crime that the individual committed. In the article Slashdot linked to, they worded it poorly in a way that made it seem more likely that he was a pedophile, but that's not always the case. The fact that the registries state the specific offense makes me wonder if there's just a grave misunderstanding in Congress about the psychology of child molesters.
Regardless, I'm not convinced that a registry of even pedophiles is acceptable. I'd rather see something more constructive, like mandatory counciling. But regardless, more research should be done to find a good solution. Unfortunately, given the punative nature of American society, the general dislike of gaining knowledge, and the inability to understand when something is a psychological or genetic condition[2] (pedophilia) rather than a choice that the person makes, I don't think we'll see improvement in this area any time soon.
[1] Here, I'm assuming, since I can't find specific recidivism rates for other crimes.
[2] Indicating that it's beyond the person's control. Pedophilia (which, strictly, is just the attraction to prepubescent children) is seemingly not much different from other sexual preferences. The key is not acting on them, in this case. -
Re:HmmmNo it isn't, you just gave bad information. Worse, not only are you repeating bad information, but you are leaving things essential important things.
Here is MY source: "Hanson and Bussière (1998) report that only a minority (13.4%) of their total sample of 23,393 subjects from their meta-analysis committed a new offense within the average 4- to 5-year follow-up period. Even with studies with thorough record searches and follow-up periods of 15 to 20 years, the recidivism rate never exceeded 40%." instead of retyping
Your still using short term numbers. all long term studies place it very high. Also comparing career criminals and patty crime to serious offense sis also silly. The recidivisms rate for murder is estimated to be 1.2% after release in the short term 3-5 years. For violent crime, unfortunately most statistics include sex crimes so I can't provide a number. But petty crimes have extremely high recidivisms while murder does not. this suggest violent re-offences may be as low as 10% without including sex offenders. Thus your contrasting a low impact crime (petty theft) to a high impact crime(sex crime) and drawing conclusions.
For on incest male pedophilia the recidivisms for 15-30 year studies is 77%. (meta study) -
Re:Duh.Take a look at the DOJ statistics for recidivism and sex offenders (easy way to get a good analysis is via the Skeptics magazine from earlier this year, it'll be on their webpage). Contrary to popular belief, sex offenders re-offend at a much lower rate than most other felonies.
But popular society right now has a lot invested in the idea that there's a pedophile behind every rock, so no one pays attention to the real numbers (since we're out of commies now, and terrorism is all wrapped up by Jack Bauer, this must be the "new thing" to worry about when we're not making PSAs about the "autism epidemic"). Short term studies put a fairly low ~14-18% number. Long term studies pin it at ~50%.
meta study ~39% for rapists ~53% for child molesters after 25 years
3 year study ~5% after 3 years (mixeD)
Canadian study ~27% after 15-20 years. (mixed)
Another Canadian one ~42% after 15-30 years.
Variations are due to different criteria for re offenses. Some count only second convictions, others count second arrests. All note that this classification of crime is often under reported. Most of the long term studies point to a coin flip whether a person will do it again. -
Re:Duh.I somewhat agree. This law is designed to make the offender miserable for the rest of their lives... and while it does do exactly that very well, the law also punishes everyone else as well... by making a convicted felon's life miserable, you give them no other choice but to continue breaking the law. Recidivism
It seems, in the long run even given anonymity the rapist/child molester are 50/50 to do it one more time and get arrested for it. The meta study was done from various studies following people from 10-25 years. It also notes sex crimes are under reported so it may in fact be higher. This previous to any registry so it seems they are predisposed to it. Treatment seems very helpful. reducing recidivism from ~43% to ~18%.
Having dated a rape victim, I know it's not a light crime. It drastically changes a person. She spent some time in the hospital for the roofies the guy used. I don't think she reported it, instead other things happened to even the score. I'm uncertain if I agree with that but in a very primal way I'm glad he was directly punished. -
Re:Bleeding hearts vs peasants with pitchforks
First off, that's a report about the UK and this is an article about the US.
Secondly, the recidivism rate for sex offenders varies by type. Intra-family sex offenders have the lowest recidivism rate, while those that prey on those outside the family have a greater recidivism rate. Child molesters have a higher recidivism rate than those who prey on adults.
Anyway, placing a strict number on it is hard. You can read this report for a lot of statistics about recidivism based on crime type.
In this case, child molesters have the highest recidivism rate at almost 50%, while rapists are a lower 40%. -
Re:That's not hot.
but the actual statistics say the opposite
I could have picked a better cititation for this point. Yes, a sex offender is more likely to be convicted of a second sex crime than a non-sex-offender criminal, as is shown by the link I gave. However, the same holds true for anybody convicted of a certain type of crime .. if you're convicted of auto burglarly, you're far more likely to be convicted of auto burglarly again than somebody who was originally convicted of marijuanana possession.
A better citation would be this, though it doesn't give a nice breakdown of recidivism rates either, because such statistics vary greatly depending on what exactly you're looking at. And it's not really a citation, but wikipedia page gives some recividism figures that are a good deal lower than the similar figures for most non sex-related crimes. -
Re:They have done the time, but not for future cri
Sorry but the percentages speak loud and clear - unlike other criminal activity a sex offender is FAR more likley to repeat the offense. That's exactly why there is a registry
Can you backup your statements with valid studies? The majority of the studies I've seen point the other way, especially if the offenders in question received any type of treatment. Here is a link from the US Justice Department with data showing about a 16% average reoffense rate for sex crimes (13% recidivism rate for molestors and 19% for rapists for new sex offenses) (Look in FAQ). Considering the average rate for non-sex offender recidivism is above 30%, welll....
The real reason for the registry is to make people feel good and think that congress is doing something, nothing more.
BWP -
Re:Three things
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Re:Why stop there?
http://www.csom.org/pubs/mythsfacts.html
Scroll down to the 3rd myth.
You should really get your facts straight before you start screaming. -
Recidivism
Because the rate of recidivism for violent sex offenders is nearly 100%, which means that they will almost certainly rape or murder someone it the future.
You know I thought it was really high, too, but according to these myths and facts about sex offenders, the majority of sex offenders do NOT reoffend. Also, I was very surprised to read that sex offenders are less likely to reoffend than non-sex offenders.
On the flip side, there's this analysis of multiple studies which reports some pretty high recidivism rates for various types of sex offenders.. and really demonstrates how complicated it is when factoring in the type of crime, and especially the extreme underreporting of sex crimes. I suspect that the overall lower rate is probably because of the underreporting and the grouping of all sex crimes together.
But in any case, I don't think your "nearly 100%" number can be substantiated. The biggest numbers in the studies analyzed, showed 52% of child molesters facing rearrested (not necessarily convicted) within a 25 year period. Oh, and Exhibitionists had a very high recidivism rate (41%-71%).
As a side note, people who are released from prison early and wear tracking systems have been deemed safe enough to be released, and unlikely to reoffend -- otherwise they wouldn't have been released early. What they're talking about here, is using it for people who have already served out their entire sentences. -
Re:Why stop there?
From the Center for Sex Offender Management http://www.csom.org/pubs/mythsfacts.html/ of the US DOJ:
Myth:
"Most sex offenders reoffend."
Fact:
Reconviction data suggest that this is not the case. Further, reoffense rates vary among different types of sex offenders and are related to specific characteristics of the offender and the offense.
Persons who commit sex offenses are not a homogeneous group, but instead fall into several different categories. As a result, research has identified significant differences in reoffense patterns from one category to another. Looking at reconviction rates alone, one large-scale analysis (Hanson and Bussiere, 1998) reported the following differences:
child molesters had a 13% reconviction rate for sexual offenses and a 37% reconviction rate for new, non-sex offenses over a five year period; and
rapists had a 19% reconviction rate for sexual offenses and a 46% reconviction rate for new, non-sexual offenses over a five year period.
Another study found reconviction rates for child molesters to be 20% and for rapists to be approximately 23% (Quinsey, Rice, and Harris, 1995).
Individual characteristics of the crimes further distinguish recidivism rates. For instance, victim gender and relation to the offender have been found to impact recidivism rates. In a 1995 study, researchers found that offenders who had extrafamilial female victims had a recidivism rate of 18% and those who had extrafamilial male victims recidivated at a rate of 35%. This same study found a recidivism rate for incest offenders to be approximately 9% (Quinsey, Rice, and Harris, 1995).
It is noteworthy that recidivism rates for sex offenders are lower than for the general criminal population. For example, one study of 108,580 non-sex criminals released from prisons in 11 states in 1983 found that nearly 63% were rearrested for a non-sexual felony or serious misdemeanor within three years of their release from incarceration; 47% were reconvicted; and 41% were ultimately returned to prison or jail (Bureau of Justice Statistics).
It is important to note that not all sex crimes are solved or result in arrest and only a fraction of sex offenses are reported to police. The reliance on measures of recidivism as reflected through official criminal justice system data (i.e., rearrest or reconviction rates) obviously omits offenses that are not cleared through an arrest (and thereby cannot be attributed to any individual offender) or those that are never reported to the police. For a variety of reasons, many victims of sexual assault are reluctant to invoke the criminal justice process and do not report their victimization to the police. For these reasons, relying on rearrest and reconviction data underestimates actual reoffense numbers.
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Re:Why stop there?
Because the rate of recidivism for violent sex offenders is nearly 100%
I'm not sure about violent sex offenders, but imperical evidence shows that recidivism rate for all sex offenders is lower for non-sex offenders. I was surprised to see it, but this document shows it. -
Recidivism
Recidivism is the word you are looking for. For some interesting info. on recidivism amongst sex offenders you can read many things. I found this to be interesting.