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Let me say it again. Look at these graphs. The data, taken from ice core studies, shows four ice-ages in the past 400k years. For each dip of the CO2 graph there is a similar dip in the temperature graph showing a high degree of correlation. The extended CO2 graph shows an enormous increase in CO2, over the past century, well outside the range of the past 400k years. This recent rise is almost a vertical jump, indicating we may be changing the climate drastically.

It is possible that the sun has some effect in triggering these cycles but these graphs show such a large correlation between CO2 and temperature that it is impossible not to believe the scientists of the IPCC. Yes, human activity is causing global warming. (In the UK we experience this now as global wetting - with increased heavy rainshowers).

To me your reaction sounds just like those "smoking doesn't cause cancer" line from the 1960s. Don't kid yourself.

some of this is from an earlier post

How then do you explain these graphs. They show four ice-ages in the past 400k years. Taken from ice core studies, for each dip of the CO2 graph there is a similar dip in the temperature graph [ornl.gov]. The extended CO2 graph shows CO2 is well outside the range of the past 400k years. The rise is almost a vertical jump.

This really shows we are doing something serious. Last week Michal Meecher, the Envirionment Minister, had an article in The Independent mentioning the Methane Hydrate danger. This is where some of the billion tons of methane stored in "methane ice" comes out and really changes the atmosphere.

I don't know what the odds of this are but some of the experts think it's possibly mass extinction stuff. To me it's much more likely than an asteroid extinction - nothing we are doing now attracts asteroids. On the other hand our bit in global warming could let this time bomb off.

But in the meantime we are willing to let our activities drown and starve the poor of the world.

Universities do lots of research. But can they be trusted to look into the value of their own products? I am beginning to hear the term "Evidence Based Education" more often but believe that there are few academics that are willing to bite the hands that feed them.

Ronald Dore was one but who heard of his brilliant book "The Diploma Disease". References to his work can be found on www.faxfn.org here.

The reforms slid into something reminiscent of the 'Cargo Cults' of Polynesia. Just as worshipping replicas of planes was thought, by cult adherents, to bring the showering of gifts from the sky, so it became an article of faith that awarding enough vocational certificates would somehow transform the nature of the UK economy.

But other criticisms of the (UK) education industry on Faxfn includes : Are Graduates up to the Job?

• Educated to manage the dole office
• Graduates with the social skills of a caterpillar
• The English Disease - Senior Engineer
• Too posh to do a proper job?
• Golden rule for IT managers: Never hire the graduate

• IQ did not contribute to GCSE [exam] performance
• You can teach a turkey to climb a tree, but it's easier to hire a squirrel
• They learn then forget
• My Degree: 3 weeks work, 87 weeks drunk

• Handwriting style affects exam results
• Three fast writers, with first class degrees

If we paper the UK with degree certificates, will jobs from heaven decend on us. Or will they decend instead on the call centres and software houses of Hyderabad.

Universities do lots of research. But can they be trusted to look into the value of their own products? I am beginning to hear the term "Evidence Based Education" more often but believe that there are few academics that are willing to bite the hands that feed them.

Ronald Dore was one but who heard of his brilliant book "The Diploma Disease". References to his work can be found on www.faxfn.org here.

The reforms slid into something reminiscent of the 'Cargo Cults' of Polynesia. Just as worshipping replicas of planes was thought, by cult adherents, to bring the showering of gifts from the sky, so it became an article of faith that awarding enough vocational certificates would somehow transform the nature of the UK economy.

But other criticisms of the (UK) education industry on Faxfn includes : Are Graduates up to the Job?

• Educated to manage the dole office
• Graduates with the social skills of a caterpillar
• The English Disease - Senior Engineer
• Too posh to do a proper job?
• Golden rule for IT managers: Never hire the graduate

• IQ did not contribute to GCSE [exam] performance
• You can teach a turkey to climb a tree, but it's easier to hire a squirrel
• They learn then forget
• My Degree: 3 weeks work, 87 weeks drunk

• Handwriting style affects exam results
• Three fast writers, with first class degrees

If we paper the UK with degree certificates, will jobs from heaven decend on us. Or will they decend instead on the call centres and software houses of Hyderabad.

Universities do lots of research. But can they be trusted to look into the value of their own products? I am beginning to hear the term "Evidence Based Education" more often but believe that there are few academics that are willing to bite the hands that feed them.

Ronald Dore was one but who heard of his brilliant book "The Diploma Disease". References to his work can be found on www.faxfn.org here.

The reforms slid into something reminiscent of the 'Cargo Cults' of Polynesia. Just as worshipping replicas of planes was thought, by cult adherents, to bring the showering of gifts from the sky, so it became an article of faith that awarding enough vocational certificates would somehow transform the nature of the UK economy.

But other criticisms of the (UK) education industry on Faxfn includes : Are Graduates up to the Job?

• Educated to manage the dole office
• Graduates with the social skills of a caterpillar
• The English Disease - Senior Engineer
• Too posh to do a proper job?
• Golden rule for IT managers: Never hire the graduate

• IQ did not contribute to GCSE [exam] performance
• You can teach a turkey to climb a tree, but it's easier to hire a squirrel
• They learn then forget
• My Degree: 3 weeks work, 87 weeks drunk

• Handwriting style affects exam results
• Three fast writers, with first class degrees

If we paper the UK with degree certificates, will jobs from heaven decend on us. Or will they decend instead on the call centres and software houses of Hyderabad.

Universities do lots of research. But can they be trusted to look into the value of their own products? I am beginning to hear the term "Evidence Based Education" more often but believe that there are few academics that are willing to bite the hands that feed them.

Ronald Dore was one but who heard of his brilliant book "The Diploma Disease". References to his work can be found on www.faxfn.org here.

The reforms slid into something reminiscent of the 'Cargo Cults' of Polynesia. Just as worshipping replicas of planes was thought, by cult adherents, to bring the showering of gifts from the sky, so it became an article of faith that awarding enough vocational certificates would somehow transform the nature of the UK economy.

But other criticisms of the (UK) education industry on Faxfn includes : Are Graduates up to the Job?

• Educated to manage the dole office
• Graduates with the social skills of a caterpillar
• The English Disease - Senior Engineer
• Too posh to do a proper job?
• Golden rule for IT managers: Never hire the graduate

• IQ did not contribute to GCSE [exam] performance
• You can teach a turkey to climb a tree, but it's easier to hire a squirrel
• They learn then forget
• My Degree: 3 weeks work, 87 weeks drunk

• Handwriting style affects exam results
• Three fast writers, with first class degrees

If we paper the UK with degree certificates, will jobs from heaven decend on us. Or will they decend instead on the call centres and software houses of Hyderabad.

Do climate records exist that date back far enough so that an accurate comparison of carbon levels and the resulting effects may be made?

Very probably. See here for a graph of past CO2 concentrations, ice ages etc.

It also has links to the US Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, which show CO2 and surface temperature data.

The Club of Rome may have been premature saying our cars would run out of gas. But we might to pay a high price. Last week, the UK minister, Peter Hain, thanked the US taxpayer for protecting the West's oil supplies at a cost of $15 per barrel.)

Today's Club of Rome worry about global warming and they may be right this time see this CO2 rise.

If the whole world lived like the affluent then to achieve sutainability in CO2 (with enough plant growth to reabsorb our pollution and stabilise the climate) we would need the area of several earth's to live on. Calculations of this "ecological footprint" have been done for York and London. The citizen's of York and London are living as though there were three Earths.

Or at least not to the point. See my earlier posting and ice core temperatures.

The important variations are every 100,000 years.

And we have certainly broken out of the ice-age/interglacial CO2 cycle.

How then do you explain the graphs. They show four ice-ages in the past 400k years. Taken from ice core studies, for each dip of the CO2 graph there is a similar dip in the temperature graph. The extended CO2 graph shows CO2 is well outside the range of the past 400k years. The rise is almost a vertical jump.

I have seen some speculation that the Sun has helped flip the Earth from ice-age to interglacial, driven to the extremes by CO2 feedback. But now we have changed CO2 seriously we are well out of that cycle.

Personally I am hoping that the weakening Gulf Stream (a consequence of Global Warming) will not cease in my lifetime. Then we will see some nasty localised cooling in Europe.

Probably a more noticeable effect than Global Warming is Global Wetting, due to increase evaporation. We are certainly noticing that.

Ice Ages, CO2 and Temperature are very strongly connected. See the graphs here. These suggest that the sun is not the main cause and human activity has prevented futher ice-ages. We wait to see what the other consequences are.

I hope repitition isn't too boring or disallowed. But do look at this graph.

It does suggest that further ice ages are unlikely.

I hope repetition isn't too boring or disallowed. But do look at this graph.

It does suggest that further ice ages are unlikely.

First of all. The CO2 levels created by recent industrialisation have taken the world into a different pattern of weather already. CO2 levels are already much higher than any of the four warm periods between the ice ages of the last 400,000 years see this graph .

There are also other graphs which show a strong relationship between temperature and CO2 from the from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Temperature data and graphs are here
CO2 data and graphs are here

There is possible disagreement as to the direction of causality - does temperature drive CO2 or does CO2 drive temperature? But if CO2 drives temperature we are in unknown territory and moving fast.

Dr. Gagosian says the possible change in Ocean Circulation is like heading towards a cliff of unknown size. But there are other ways the world's climate might change dramatically now it is rolling.

For example, there are enormous amounts of methane as methane hydrate under the oceans (probably much larger than all the reserves of oil and gas). As one leading researcher put it to me.

Methane hydrates have not had much effect over the past 400, 000 years but now we are into a whole new ball game. Over longer time spans catastrophic methane burps from under the sea have been shown to be part of the Earth's climate. These have caused mass extinctions.

This, of course, is just one of several possibilities. The truth is we've started changes we cannot control - we are travelling too fast and we are in the dark. I don't know if we are going to fall of a cliff or hit a tree but I am more than happy to pay for some headlights.