Domain: wxug.com
Stories and comments across the archive that link to wxug.com.
Comments · 12
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Re:Why believe the models?
Models being too extreme? Hardly.
Forecast: 1990 IPCC sea level rise predictions vs. actuality
Forecast: 1988 Hansen temperature predictions vs. actuality (Scenario B was described as most likely)
Forecast: IPCC temperature predictions vs. actuality vs. contrarian models
Backtest: IPCC AR1 sea ice loss models vs. actualTemperatures are tracking, on long running average, right on what has been forecast. Sea level rise is well on the high end. As it stands, our arctic sea ice models predict significantly less loss than we actually see (we're not very good with sea ice right now, and this is well acknowledged by the IPCC).
I know there's been this contrarian myth circulating claiming that climate models predicted warming that never occurred. There's a nice, well-referenced debunking of it here.
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Re:Does anyone have a list of the hottest years?
Trying to find a "top ten" list of the hottest and coldest years.
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Re:Does anyone have a list of the hottest years?
You could have shown an ounce of intelligence and tried clicking the link in the summary ( http://icons.wxug.com/hurrican... ).
Of course that assumes you know how to read a chart.So let me help you:
See the tallest red lines?
Those are the biggest years.
Find the 10 tallest, and there's your list.
Now repeat for the blue ones. -
pics or it didn't happen
Departure of global temperature from average for 2014 (NOAA)
global departure of temperature from average from 1965 - 2014 (scepticalscience.com)
Article: 2014: Hottest Year in Recorded Human History, Dr. Jeff Masters' blog entry at wunderground.com.
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pics or it didn't happen
Departure of global temperature from average for 2014 (NOAA)
global departure of temperature from average from 1965 - 2014 (scepticalscience.com)
Article: 2014: Hottest Year in Recorded Human History, Dr. Jeff Masters' blog entry at wunderground.com.
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pics or it didn't happen
Departure of global temperature from average for 2014 (NOAA)
global departure of temperature from average from 1965 - 2014 (scepticalscience.com)
Article: 2014: Hottest Year in Recorded Human History, Dr. Jeff Masters' blog entry at wunderground.com.
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Re:Whoah, wait a minute...
Here is a graph of arctic melting relative to models. You will note that the Arctic has melted much faster than the models predicted. We've already seen melting that we didn't anticipate until 2050. So perhaps some introspection is in order, but not quite the way you are suggesting: http://icons.wxug.com/metgraph...
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Re:Getting kinda tired....
I'm getting kinda tired of the Global Warming doomsday cult
Good marketing there, mate. The PR professionals of the denialist movement like to throw around words like "cult" or "religion" for the scientific movement that they are trying to attack.
Casting the scientific position as religious attacks it's greatest strength, that it is scientific, and therefore our best guess of truth.While I don't ignore the fact that man can alter the weather to some degree.
Okay.
I'm getting tired of hearing about how all life on Earth will end in a few years unless we vote for just one political party and their pet doomsday cult.
The article is about ice loss on the Antarctic. It doesn't discuss who you should vote for. It doesn't even assume the reader is in any country or democratic precinct.
Apparently, the sun has nothing to do with climate.
The current warming is not due to the sun. This can be shown because the current warming is occurring more in winter and night, as you would expect from greenhouse warming which slows the rate of heat loss. The sun would warm more when it is shining.
It can also be shown by the cooling of the stratosphere, showing that less heat is reaching the stratosphere from below. The sun would increase the temperature of the whole atmosphere.
But also Solar activity does not correlate with the current warming.Also, all global warming and ice age events for that last 100 million years were caused by present day American pollution but non-American pollution doesn't do anything....especially is it comes from China and India.
I think that this would be wrong.
Do you have a source?So just remember, Al Gore has a carbon footprint 10000 times larger than you and is swimming in millions of oil dollars from the Middle East.
I believe that Al Gore is carbon neutral.
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Re: The Heartland Institute
So, you like them because they're untainted by facts? Good point. No, great point, wouldn't want to be led astray by facts.
Actually the summary is fairly untainted by facts. For instance:
Arctic sea ice is trending near record lows for this time of year, abnormally warm ocean water helped spawn the earliest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall in North Carolina, and a rash of heat waves have plagued cities from India to California to the Middle East.
Yikes, that all sounds alarming right?
Except...
1) Arctic sea ice is actually currently above last year's level, which was already a rebound of over 25 million square km more than the previous year at the minimum extents.
2) The ocean waters in the North Atlantic hurricane region are right around average for this time of year, by no means "abnormally warm".
3) "Rashes of heat waves plague" various places every summer, and always have. NOAA recently reinstated 1934 as the hottest year in the US on record.
The article attacking the Heartland data does have a minor point, but it is absolutely true that temperatures have been essentially flat for around 17 years, while CO2 has been at the highest levels in history. There have been quite a few peer reviewed papers trying to explain this pause, so it's clearly a real phenomena. We'll see if it continues, the El Nino this year is now expected to be a fairly minor event.
At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 1.4oC).
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Re:Ice Tea...
If you look at the IPCC report (wg1 chapter 2 page 136 although it's already starting to get a bit old), there is still a (minimal) chance that none of it is caused by CO2, because human release of aerosols cause a cooling effect. Of course there are other considerations like methane, etc. Most scientific organizations say things like, "most of the warming we've seen is caused by humans....." Although 'most' is a wiggle word that accurately represents our uncertainty on the matter.
It's also helps to take this into perspective, look at this graph, you'll see that we keep talking about the summer extent; the winter extent hasn't changed much. The past year was right up there with 1990s average. And the annual change is dramatically larger than the change in either the summer extent or the winter extent. Also, it is arguably more important to measure the thickness of the ice, rather than the extent, but a falling summer extent might suggest the thickness is shrinking as well. We are measuring that now, but only for a few years.
In any case you should check out this amazing picture from the article. Can you guess which direction the earth is spinning? -
Re:Just not going to happen until
And that's if you assume that both cities get water in the streets at high tide now (hint: they don't).
then basically you don't know what the fuck you are talking about.
yes they most certainly do flood with seawater on very high tides and even category 1 low pressure storm systems.
2 minutes with google images:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vI4A1cFjRWU/TlraMAG9teI/AAAAAAAAAnY/e1SejDjKJ5Q/s1600/FDR+underwater.jpg
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7kqY21iqXlI/TlaC80z7F7I/AAAAAAAAEHQ/XNP27DbCJi4/s1600/Hurricane%2BIrene%2Bstory%2BLaguardia%2BAirport%2Bflooding%2Bin%2Bthe%2B1930s.jpg
http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2011/nyc_subway_flood_1992_640.jpg
http://daughterofthegreatdepression.blogspot.com/2011/08/wednesday-august-23-1933.html -
Re:Bullshit
Well, he does seem to have discovered Weather Underground's logo.