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IBM One-Chip Dual Processor Due Next Year
PureFiction writes, "Looks like IBM is going to be scaling processors at the chip-die level. ZDnet has this story about plans for a dual-processor, single-die chip that will operate at upward of 2 gigahertz. It will be called the Power4, will use a .18 micron fab process, and feature on-chip L2 cache (supposedly quite large, though no numbers mentioned), and bus speeds of 500Mhz. I wanna overclock one of these bad boys ..." Better get out your pocketbook, then -- they're slated to power RS/6000 servers rather than consumer PCs, at least for a while. 64 bits, copper interconnects, and plans to move down to a .13 micron fab show that IBM's is thinking long-term. Similar technology may reach your desktop first, though, in products like AMD's Sledgehammer.
> SMP on a single chip is an obvious advance.
Unfortunately if you multiply the amount of circuitry you are trying to deliver in one fully working device, you cut your yield exponentially. This is a SERIOUS problem if your yields aren't high enough to make the exponential nature a small effect.
Say on one wafer you have 30 defects bad enough to wreck whatever chip they are on. Now normally you make 100 chips on that wafer. So (first approximations here, I won't actually do the statistics) 70 chips make it, your yield is 70 percent.
But now you double the size of your chips, so that same wafer now only produces 50. But you still have those same 30 bad defects. Whoops, your yield is now 40 percent. Quadruple the size of your die... Whoops, now you will be lucky to get a handfull of that entire wafer (you're trying to get 25 chips when there are 30 randomly distributed defects... I leave the answer as an excercise for the reader :)
On the other hand if you do the same rough approximation with only 10 super bad defects per wafer, then you go from a 90 percent yield to an 80 percent yield when doubling the die size. No where near as bad an effect on the economics.
So, the only reason they are now considering it is that they expect to have defect rates reduced enough to make it reasonably ecomonical.
-NH
My apologies for avoiding the statistics and actual mathematics, and my examples above use randomly chosen yields. I have an optoelectronics background that is a few years old, back when production yields at some places for III-V QWH Lasers with simple integration with a few other devices had utterly pathetic yields... Like 10 percent!!