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U.S. Gov. Space/Air Force Possible Plans For Future
We had a reader send us a link to the United States Air Force Report on plans for possible futures. They've looked at the next 30 years, envisioning different scenarios and created the areas that the USAF needs to work -- the role of space obviously becomes more important, and they've got some interesting conclusions about what to expect. There's /reams/ of data here, and I've only started to read through it, but it's pretty cool stuff.
The fun thing to notice was that in one of the scenarios, "Digital Cacophony", when individuals gain power and authorities have no longer much to say, the world is marked with "fear and anxiety".
I disagree. I'd say it might well be a happier place without the stupid who command and the more stupid who follow.
"In short, there will be no escaping the oncoming SHMAC."
I'm glad to see that the people working on this had some sense of humor. I'd like to see anyone talk about SHAAFT dropping a SHMAC on the enemy and keep a straight face.
-NOC Monkey (OOK!) Experience is what allows you to recognize a mistake the second time you make it.
another blurb: . .. . by providing the "God's eye view" commanders have always longed for, it would bring about a revolution in the manner in which forces are managed.
All they want is god like powers?! Is *that* all?!?!
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So yes, indeed, this report is 4 years old. Gen Fogelman is no longer the Chief of Staff, hasn't been since 1997 or so. Gen Mike Ryan is the current Chief of Staff of the AF. Sheila Widnall left in 1998, F. Whitten "Whit" Peters is the current SECAF.
The Air University is responsible for a) professional military education of the Air Force non-commissioned and commissioned officer corps and b) academic development of aerospace doctrine. They're the "think tank" of the AF.
Neutron
I get my kicks above the
I didn't read the whole thing (yet), cause it is simply gargantuan, but it seems like they know what they're talking about. Lots of good ideas in there.
The one problem there has always been with this sort of thing is that you can't predict stuff that there are no trends to suggest. For instance, they don't expect any truly revolutionary devices to be invented, although as everyone knows one of the things war does is show just how important a given device or technique could be: no one was afraid of U-boats before 1914, and no one really thought about guerilla warfare that much until the USA lost in Vietnam. There were probably people who suggested that these things could be important, but it took a war to really prove it. We get guerilla warfare in every conflict, but it never really swung the tide except in Vietnam (because that was all North Vietnam really had).
In one of the papers, a Lt. General says that he does not expect that there will be a Space Corps. or an Information Corps. I'm not sure about this assertation.
Perhaps there will be no Information Corps in the sense that it won't be on the same level as the Air Force or Navy, but it'll certainly exist. The only thing which may prevent it is if countermeasures (like crypto) become strong enough that it can't provide a big advantage. But information warfare already exists, has always existed, and will continue to exist. It's just another way of talking about espionage and certain sabotage.
Not to mention propaganda: against a country like the USA, I would make sure that the American public got plenty of footage of blood soaked villages and starving children. One of the reasons Vietnam was so unpopular was that there was so much press coverage, and that translated into less enthusiasm. Less enthusiasm for a war means fewer volunteers (and draftees) and fewer resources committed to the war. People didn't really think about what was going on over there until the press started to draw attention to it.
And the Space Corps...that's up for grabs. It all depends on how much technology progresses in that time. If we're still stuck in Earth-orbit, than it will just be a part of the USAF. Research colonies will probably be unaffected, so even if there are researchers on the moon or Mars, it will probably stay with the Air Force. If there are actual colonies then it may be Army/National Guard. And if, and this is a big if, we have large successful colonies on other planets which are essentially small countries, and spacecraft routinely make trips between them and Earth, it may become Navy (the spacecraft are traditionally Navy in most science fiction). Instead of Navy, however, there may be the United States Space Force (or Corps). I don't think we'll get that far in 25 years though.
So basically, they've got good ideas and good predictions, provided that no new, unexpected technology shows up. If something big should happen, it's a toss up.
Then again, I could be wrong.
But then, the reason for science fiction is to serve pretty much the same purpose as the ones that the Air Force intend - to extrapolate from the current state of affairs of the world and pick out possibilities, maybe merging and switching a few of those possibilities, and come up with something that seems plausible. The true outcome, we've learned historically, is never quite exactly as depicted in these fictitious glimpses in the future, but may actually fulfill some of the predicted destinies.