Could Cell Phones Replace Regular Phones?

JoseMonkey asks: "The reliability and quality of wireless telephones continues to improve, and the total cost of ownership and cost of use is steadily decreasing.In light of that, I'm starting to wonder if I could forget about conventional phones altogether and simply use my cell phone. Calling plans like AT&T Wireless Services' "OneRate" program make roaming charges a non-issue, and the cost of service is fairly reasonable. In fact, I'm having trouble thinking of reasons to keep my home phone. Can anyone think of a reason not to tell my local phone company to take a hike?" (Read on...)

Although something like this could happen, I think there are several reasons why we aren't-quite-ready-for-it-yet. Cellular coverage is spotty at best across the U.S. and I'm not quite sure how widespread coverage is in Europe (but the information would be appreciated). I mean, I have a new cell phone (a Nokia 6185) and there were times I couldn't make a call from the center of downtown Manhattan which mystified the hell out of me at the time (turns out my phone was somehow kicked out of the system).

Of course, when it comes to signal quality, I think that there are some cellular phones that sound better than your average land-line, but the place where your land-line will win hands down over any of the new wireless upstarts is reliability. On a landline phone, you pick the receiver up off the cradle and you get a dialtone (assuming you've paid the bill, of course). I'm sure many of you will agree that cellular isn't quite at that level yet, although it's getting there. I figure everything will change within a year or two that will make even today's best predictions meaningless.

So how long do you think it will take (if ever) before everyone has a cell phone and land lines become a thing of the past?

Comments

Elswhere on the globe...

[ruppel]

This is something that is already happening a lot and not so much in the western industrialized countries but more so in the third world countries where there is no telephone network to begin with. Governments in Asia and Africa find it cheaper to build a mobile network instead of upgrading, or in some cases actually starting from scratch, a conventional cable based network. Although the cost of an individual cell phone is astronomical in relative economic terms it is cheaper for an village in Africa to buy one cell phone than to to get a puplic phone booth for example.

On the other hand in industrialized countries the reasons for switching entirely to mobile phones are different but mostly also cost related. Countries where the mobile coverage reaches an acceptable range, and I personally can only talk about Finland where ist is darn close to 100%, there is really no drawback to having a cell phone regardless of where you live (plus the obvious advantages of the cell phones mobility).

Here in Finland the amount of housholds with only a cell phone and no hard line is rising steadily as well as in other European countries. The main reason being cheap phone calls. Whith the infrastructure of the mobile network in place, operators can start lowering the call prices as the investments that were needed to build the network are being paid back and the interest on them get less and less. The price difference in the monthly fee of a hard line and a mobile is enough to let you talk for about one hour on your mobile, admittedly not much, but with additional plans for eg. interoperator calls that can go up to three hours and then your only at the amount you'd have to pay for having the hard line to your home. I reacon the States still have some way to go before a significant price drop in the call charges happens since your operators are still building the network and that takes a lot of money.

One other big question which comes up in deciding whether to get rid of the hard line is the computer. Connecting to the net over a cell phone is... well it sucks. Here again students have the advantage since universities offer unlimited net access in some cases even in the campus living quarters. Other non-phoneline related solutions like cable modems are slowly making progress and in turn accelerate the rate at which people give up their hard lines (with a cable modem and a mobile phone you really don't need a hard line anymore).

mobiles in Europe

[ala]

I moved to the Netherlands from the US 6 months ago and the amount of people with mobile phones just amazed me.

The prices are alright ( go here for details Dutch GSM pricing summary. It's a summary of all mobile plans offered in the Netherlands. It's in Dutch but you'll figure it out. 1f is about $.40 )

I think the reason is HOW they price. With all phones, land and cell, owners only pay for out-going calls. So, if you have a cell phone you can leave it on all the time and not worry about someone calling you and talking your ear off.

Mobiles here have their own area codes that way people calling you know that it's going to be more expensive

Currently, the only minus I see with only having a cell phone is that calling international is pretty expensive where-as it's pretty cheap with land-phones. Oh, and cell modem speeds are pretty slow.

As far as coverage, it's great and it doesn't seem to be affected going into Germany and Belgium.

(On a side note, I have yet to see ONE pager here.)

Price comparison thread...

[ruppel]

Lets start a price comparison thread. I for one would be interested in how expensive mobile calls are elswhere. I'll start be entering the prices for Finland:

Monthly: $2.92 - $4.62 (no data conection) $4.62 - $18 (data connection) Calls: $0.09 - $0.15 (to same operator) $0.09 - $0.37 (to hard line) $0.15 - $0.37 (to other operator)

These are the prices for the oprator that I use, Radiolinja, the prices of other operators are pretty much the same since there is fierce competition over customers here in Finland where the law prohibits long term binding contracts to operators and thus switching between them is easy.

The price ranges indicated give the prices depending on time of day and type of contract. not listed are special contracts like "family line" where the call costs between three individual phones and a hard line can be as low as $0.04 per minute.

For reference, a hard line costs about $10 a month with calls at $0.07 per ten minutes. So lets hear what ather countries have to offer.

already happening

[bogomipe]

I noticed last summer, that with a GSM to handle my calls and a cable modem for network access, my regular phone was mostly unused. Come to think of it, most of my friends don't have regular telephones anymore.

Atleast over here in Finland, the mobile markets are very competitive which brings down the prices. Regular telephone calls are cheaper, but the fixed monthly fee is considerably higher.

What about inet acces?

[Duxup]

The only down side I can see is perhaps is data communications. I'm not sure about most places but all the cable companies that I know ask that you pay for cable TV for cablemodem services.

If you use DSL or some other Telco inet access, they might toss in the same idea that you need some basic phone service.

Re:What about inet acces?

[Duxup]

I figured it would be something like that.

The only downside I can see is availability. Sometimes my cell service goes down (well back in the day more often than now) and my traditional phone service almost never does. But I think your on the right track, Cell only will one day be a great way to go.

Pagers gone the way of the dodo

[DreamerFi]

With Short Messaging Service (SMS) standard in GSM phones, you can send up to about 180 characters to a mobile phone.

The practical upshot is that nobody cares about pages anymore.

-John

Bills

[RobertAG]

For cell phones to be accepted in the USA, the billing system will have to revamped much like it is in Finland and other countries.

In underdeveloped countries, it may be much easier to run signal repeaters rather than traditional phone lines (probably easier maintenance, too).

I once mentioned to my wife that we really don't need a phone anymore since our internet service is through a cable modem and we can use our cell phone just as easily (we have voicemail). She looked at me as if I had grown a third eye. Apparently, the idea was very unconventional to her, leading me to believe that social culture will have to get used to the idea that stationary phones will become dinosaurs.

I can't count the number of times (lately) I've wanted someone to call me, but I've had to be home for the call.

Most people (in the USA) have the idea that a cell phone is an infrequently used, emergency call device. It can be so much more.

GSM coverage is better in Europe

[anticypher]

Speaking for the areas that I know best, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, England, Ireland and parts of eastern Europe, coverage is close to 100%. Other GSM areas cover all the major population centres and main roads, but with less coverage of rural areas. Many areas with no land line coverage often have a GSM signal, since a cell site will cover up to 5000 square Kms over a big flat rural area.

The only parts of Belgium where coverage is spotty is the hilly south east corner, where the signals don't get down into the tiny valleys, and downtown Brusssels when the cell sites get overwhelmed by the huge number of users. France has close to 90% coverage, with only some mountainous regions missing. Even travelling around Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and a few other former east bloc countries has an amazing level of coverage.

I've got an american dual-band digital and analog phone for when I have to work in America. I'm constantly surprised how little coverage there is, especially when taking a road trip on the main highways. Even around DC, where I would expect a heavy investment by the local companies to provide 100% coverage, there was no signal in many places.

But getting back on topic, YES, cell phones will eventually replace much of the land line installations, but not all. Businesses will never go wireless, it doesn't make sense except for maybe the sales force. Many citizens will stick to their landlines for now, they just don't lead the kind of lives where a portable makes sense. But younger people crave the independance of a cell phone, and if you read the euro-centric newsgroups you will find a lot of support for those who want to go completely wireless in their lives.

I lived for years without a land line, but it was very tricky to get GSM service without a land line to tie it to. In France, it is close to impossible to get a cell phone without proving 'domicile fixe' with a current phone bill in your name. But friends have done it, first getting the cell phone, then cancelling their land line. Normally FT and Belgacom will not let you cancel your service until you provide them with a new address, so the best plan is to tell them you are moving to another country for a while for work or school. You might even get your deposit back :-)

With any luck, when demand for hard lines starts to decrease, the phone companies will cut the prices way back, making POTS available for more poor people who can't afford it right now.

the AC

Roaming isn't an issue in this debate

[#FF6600]

Think about it - while roaming on your cellphone may be expensive, it's downright impossible on your landline. If you want to make the argument for "one phone," you need only consider what it costs you to make and recieve cellphone calls *at home*. I have had only a cell phone for about 5 years now. Initially it was because of the work I was doing, but now it's because I am rarely home, and when I am, I generally don't want to talk on the phone!

No landline phone, PROS:

You're not in the phone book. No telemarketers. This is a huge benefit.

You have only one voicemail number to check.

There are months when it's actually cheaper, depending on your lifestyle.

No landline phone, CONS:

Cellphones, quite honestly, suck. I often drop connections. This is improving fast, though, even in michigan.

You're not in the phone book. No friends.

You're gonna have to figure out another method for internet.

Filling out forms for the doctor/employer/IRS is a little bit complicated when you only have one phone number.

It freaks Grandma out.

Guests have trouble figuring out how to make a call on your cellphone. (okay, that could be good)

Re:Roaming isn't an issue in this debate

[anticypher]

Cellphone, PROS:
When I'm on my American phone, I get telemarketer calls all the time, since the area code is the same as my home region, and the prefix has a mix of cell and land lines. Most of the people I know over there get them as well, and just hang up as soon as its obvious the call is not one they want. The telemarketers change their script to try to keep you on the line longer without you abrubtly hanging up. I talked to one last month, and she was perfectly aware she was calling a cell phone number and costing me money. She wanted me to buy cell phone accessories and insurance.

no landline, CONS:
Internet access? You still use a POTS modem? xDSL, Cable, Wireless, ISDN and other new technologies should make the analog modem seem archaic. I use my land line for SDSL only, it doesn't have a phone number associated with it. Freaks out the installation technician, even though he knows me through work.

Your friends require you to be in the phone book? I hand my cell number out like candy to anyone who wants it. Phone books over here only have 50% of land lines listed, so most people just shrug if they don't find you in the book.

the AC

Re:Roaming isn't an issue in this debate

[anticypher]

When I moved into this house, it had two phone lines already installed. But since we live entirely on our GSM phones, we didn't get analog access turned on. Tried to get ISDN access, but at the time it wasn't available. Now, thanks to a DSLAM I helped install in the local CO, I've got SDSL and a range of static IP addresses. We've also got cable access, but it doesn't get used as much. Sometime I have access to a major POP with a wireless connection.

The whole order entry process was very wierd, they have ruled it impossible to have a phone line without service. And I was standing in the room with the senior project managers, not trying to do this to an anonymous entry clerk on the end of a phone call. But they couldn't understand how I could live without an analog phone line. Its a very strange world, the old telco mindset.

The lines had battery but no dial tone, so the technician removed them physically from the plant MDF, and wired them straight to the DSLAM. That gave me 1 Mbps in each direction since I didn't need filters at either end. I have one machine powered up all the time in my place dedicated to doing quality checks for the DSL provider. We're on good terms, so I get to do what I want, and in return I help them out with some of the strange technical problems they run into. Of course, if I were to charge them for all that work, they would owe me lots of money, but its a great learning experience for me as well.

My current project for selfish reasons is to get the cable operator and the phone company to talk IP/BGP4 to each other. Traceroute from cable to DSL goes through 14 hops and the UK, even though the routers are only a few meters apart. I've even told them I would help out with the BGP4 routing so only traffic between the 2 systems would pass, and not be a major conduit. But they are both convinced that Belgian law forbids them from talking or connecting to each other. Given the lack of any enforcement of any laws in this country, I doubt it would ever be noticed.

the AC

Re:Roaming isn't an issue in this debate

[bluGill]

I belive it is illegal to make unsolisited calls to a cell phone. (In the Us, I don't know about the rest of the world) That is you cannot call me up trying to sell me something. You can make an unsolisited call for something that I would reasonabbly want to know.

I wish xDSL, or cable modem or similear was avaiable in my area. I'm not far from the central office of either, but they won't do it. Best bet currently seems to be a uncurrent in the city to open up the fiber link they ahve around town for goverment use to everyone. (This is mostly court house to fire department and schools. I don't expect to ever see it though as security must be a concern)

I don't have a land line.

[bluGill]

The person I rent a room from has a land line phone, but I don't use it. I don't know where I'll be living in two months. I see no reason to assume I'll live at the same address for 6 consecutive months again in my life. (Though odds are I will live in one place for a long time) My phone number hasn't changed in years, and I don't expect it to change often.

Land lines are for data. If you want to contact me, I have one phone, and one number - my cell phone.

I've only encountered two areas where I don't have service, and since I was on vacation both times I didn't feel bad. Besides it was just a matter of getting out of the tent and walking up the cliff (a couple hundred feet of steep hillside really) to get service. Not a big deal.

mobile phones vs. stationary phones

[radja]

I'm sticking to my stationary phone, I hate mobiles. I don't want to be reachable everywhere, and when people visit me, the mobile phone should be turned off. I already have a phone, and 2 phones in the house is overdoing it. But, here in the netherlands, with coverage of about 95% (give or take 5%) mobile phones are a reasonable alternative to stationary ones. if you don't mind the terrible soundquality of most phones. Now if only people would turn off their phones.. I really hate people (who always start talking VERY VERY LOUDLY) getting phonecalls in cinemas, bars, coffee-shops etc.

//rdj

Anonymous pre-paid mobile phones ?

[RGRistroph]

I would like to be able to walk in a store and pay cash for a phone, and pre-pay for a certain number of minutes in cash, and then walk out having never revealed my name or other personal information. Of course, I should also be able to return with the phone and more cash and add more minutes.

Does anyone know of where I can get such a deal ?

In what countries is this common ?

Re:Anonymous pre-paid mobile phones ?

[DreamerFi]

Most european countries have that, nowadays. However, remember that's its probably possible to find out who you are by your call patterns, should anybody really want to.

-John

Batteries?

[ebh]

The one thing that will keep me a landline customer for a long time to come is the fact that a simple conventional telephone is powered by the telco, not the electric company. For all we hate about The Phone Company, they're *extremely* reliable. They've done high availability longer than anyone.

We generally get at least one >24-hour power outage a year, but the phones never go down. After the batteries run out, if I can't power my cellphone some other way, it's useless.

[Still looking forward to the next huge advance in battery technology, and the day we kiss the power grid goodbye!]

Project Angel

[m0nkeyb0y]

A few years ago AT&T started a program called "project angel" which was intended to replace POTS lines with a cellular system in the home. Check out this story at Cnet.com.

I Did This Years Ago

[waldoj]

I dropped my landline in '98, and have been straight PCS ever since. The biggest problems:

* Not dependable. Mobile phone companies believe it far more acceptable to have a tower down than landline companies do to have your line dead. Neither really give a shit, but my company cares a bit less.

* No phone book listing. I'd like to be in the phone book, but it just won't happen. I tried to pay them, but they still wouldn't do it. Small problem, but it does suck.

* Extensions. I'd like to have multiple phones on the same line. One in the kitchen, one in my bedroom. When the phone rings, then I wouldn't have to race across the apartment to wherever I left my phone.

* Modem. I've got a DSL, so I don't really care, but it would be nice to have the option of having a modem when my DSL dies. (Again, courtesy of Intelos.)

* Long distance. I pay $0.15 / minute, and I can't switch. I've never heard of a mobile phone provider that would let people switch their long distance. I can't call overseas. Intelos tries to tell me that it's technically impossible, which is a load, clearly. Once that line hits the CO, it doesn't matter what kind of a phone that I'm on. Again, I'm yet to find a mobile phone provider that would let me make overseas calls.

I won't go back to a landline. But I've been tempted, a few times, to suppliment my mobile with a landline.

-Waldo

Re:Why cellular coverage is lower in US

[bluGill]

Agreed. Remember too that parts of the country are much lower yet. There are places in the US where if there was a tower, less then 100 people in a day would have the potential to use it!

Add in valleys (Which are hard to cover) and you can expect poor coverage. In any metropolition area or anyplace with big roads (The US has a great road system) the coverage is great.

Wireless Local Loop

[Nyarly]

One thing that might make mobiles more widespread would be WLL, or a releated technolgy. Basically the idea is that you have mini-repeater in your home, that treats calls made through it as a local call. In terms of setting up mobile in a wired region, this makes a whole lot of sense, and in the US where local calls are billed at a flat rate it might make the transition happen a whole lot faster.

I personally believe that wireless is not only feasible, it's being delayed. I'm not sure why, or by whom, but the technology is there. Financially, everyone with the capitol is doing too well to be really pressured to alter things, but it seems to me that wires should be for power, period.

As far as cell modems being slow, there is a truth to that, but wireless ethernet isn't, and I don't really see any reason why it should be building by building; Lucent manufactures mile radius plus antennae for the stuff; I think there's a market for an ISP that sets up wireless ether and rents/sells WiFi cards to those without. I think there's a market for a WLL base that could be a one time purchase and would talk to your cell phone and put it on your local line. Combine that with a single-number service and you're in business.

I really do think that there's a whole realm of possibilities that a little real innovation and invention in the wireless device field might open up.

For instance, what about a device that set cell phones within it's range to vibrate or 'take a message' mode if available. Great for meeting rooms, and better for movie theatres. Granted, we aren't there yet, and the current billing schemes are insane (for instance, at the moment, I'll bet the service providers would charge you to have your phone silenced in the movies as well as charging the theatre), and there's room for abuse (some sort of authorization or some such to prevent people from buying a kill-box and shutting peoples phones down.) but consider the benifits of a technical society freed of wires and matured beyond the expectation that that means instant access to everyone.

Rambling summary: I certainly hope wireless can beat out wired. And I think it can.

Ushers will eat latecomers.

And then...

[cr0sh]

You get yelled at, or questioned, as to why you didn't answer your mobile phone. At least if you don't have one, you don't have to explain.

Personally, I think of cell phones and beepers as leashes - plain and simple. However, I don't think of myself as a slave...

If only my GF would see it that way...

[cr0sh]

If I have the phone, and don't answer, and don't return the call - I will get grilled as to why I didn't when I return home from at 2am.

Maybe I was out trashing, looking for that discarded Pentium box companies seem to leave out now and then? Gotta turn the phone off, to keep security off my back. It won't matter to the GF - she thinks you were cheating!

Or how about the boss that calls you on the weekend to come in - right now - or be fired! - while you are at the beach? Your boss can't reach you if you don't have one - "Sorry boss, I was at the beach with my family Saturday - I did get your answering machine message when I returned at 8pm, though!".

In other words, I know I am not the slave of the phone, and the people calling know that as well - they think you are their slave...