Slashdot Mirror
What Will The Internet Of The Future Be Like?
kayser_soze asks: "I am curious as to what you guys at Slashdot think of the way the Internet as a whole will develop in the near, and not-so-near future. Personally, I always imagine something akin to the ideas William Gibson has written about in his books: a global matrix of information to which all have access. How do other people envision the Internet to come? What technologies do you guys see becoming prevalent, what things will become obsolete, and what are the most far-fetched things you can imagine will happen?"
You can already do that in many places. I can order a pizza on the web from Pappa John's and the order is automagically relayed to a printer at the local franchise.
Mea navis aericumbens anguillis abundat
Now once VR is a reality, I would expect that the cost for access would rise just a bit. I expect that there will be two types of stratification that emerge at the beginning: coders vs. non-coders and rich vs. poor. The coders would be the people who could actively modify their simulations on the fly, possibly even while in a public area where things are supposed to be set. These would be like the hackers and crackers of today. Non-coders are stuck in the ride that they were given. In gaming, the rich/poor stratification is already happening. A player with a 1.2 Ghz Athlon, the best video card, and a T3 connection has a bit of an advantage over a person using a Celeron 400 over a 56.6 modem. In VR this gulf would get wider as a person with a lot of money could afford to stay on the net more, have the best equipment, buy special code, and have specialized devices to give advantages in various situations. Such people also will be likely to find less and less reason to leave home and may eventually build there real-life homes as glorified bedrooms with kitchens, because everything else they need and want is on the net.
As to the net itself, I forsee it developing a UN-style administrative counsel from the countries with heavy net usage. I see business and government comandeering about 75-90% of the web resources with the rest distributed to various individuals and organizations. There will be various disassociated networks that are difficult or impossible to get to via the net for when people want security or to get away from the rest of the netizens. Most literature, vacations, shopping, etc. will all be accessable via the net. Teaching about almost anything would be done via VR. Many people with good net access will suffer a decline in physical health due to simple lack of activity. In short, I see it being much like the first half of Tad Williams's book: Otherland: City of Golden Shadow.
B. Elgin
B. Elgin
"Read at your own risk; feel free to ignore."
As a counterpoint to all the CorpNet posts, here is a vision of what the Internet could be if we are vigilant about maintaining freedom, access, and openness:
In general, an internet that continues to be (or goes back to being) open and free becomes a place where everyone has an equal voice to communicate to as wide an audience as they want, everyone has access to the entire variety of information available, and the tools of the internet excel at ensuring that your message can be heard clearly, while you can also find out all that you want to know.
Commerce
The free internet of the future creates a frictionless, level marketplace where disintermediation has been taken to the extreme. Whatever business you're in, you have the means to compete on a sale-by-sale basis with anyone else in the same field. What will set your business apart is quality, service, convenience, and specialization.
As a consumer, you can use this situation to great advantage, always commanding the lowest price and greatest value available.
Some side effects: commodity products will be produced as close to where they're consumed as possible, with the most-available materials, by cottage-industry producers that can respond cheaply to the needs of local customers. Meanwhile, exotic products and materials will be made available to wider communities, increasing the value of local resources and skills. The economies of leverage and cartel will nearly disappear, allowing "banana republics" to develop independent, self-sustaining economies, while reducing inequities of wealth and power in all countries.
Culture
Broadcasters, advertisers, and media conglomerates will also succumb to disintermediation, making culture both more global and more heterogeneous. While the prurient will always survive, the hyped, ad-financed, over-promoted, cross-marketed garbage that we and our children currently have shoved down our throats will be rightfully outcompeted by those whose voices currently can't be heard because they don't market well or might make the media conglomerates uncomfortable.
Education, Science, and Technology
If discoveries can be kept from becoming property, and the advantages of open information and peer review are recognized, the internet can continue to benefit science and education as the evolving encyclopedia of our shared knowledge.
This all sounds pretty lofty and idealistic, but that's what freedom can do for you. And if it doesn't turn out the way I've described, we'll have to ask how our future got taken from us, and by whom.
"You can't get something for nothing." - my grandfather, on the stock market and Reaganomics.
I predict that within 10 years we will have as much corporate control of the internet as the russians had government control of their lives during the soviet years.
I also predict that the real violations of rights will come from corporations, not the government as the government is often too clueless to be able to effectively handle technology. It will ultimately come down to libertarians (restrain the gov AND corps) vs the pseudo-libertarians (just restrain the gov).
My final prediction is that libertarians around the nation will begin seeing the publically traded megacorporation for what it is: a barrier to free market enterprise and an institution whose power must be limited just as the government's power must be limited. If we don't limit it then other companies cannot rise up and challenge it. God knows if teddy roosevelt hadn't done his famous trust busting we might have an industrial-aristocracy equivelent to the old European aristocracies.
It is difficult to get people to make changes together, but that is only required because people keep insisting on having the same protocol end-to-end.
I believe this needs to change. There is zero reason for the transport layer to be bound to the data it is transporting, protocol-wise. The application should be able to request a certain type and quality of connection from the transport layer, without caring if the data is going over IPv4, IPv6, ATM, IPX, SNA, or what-have-you. There is *NO* reason for the application to care what it runs over as long as the desired quality of connection is satisfied. The transport should be an opaque layer.
Undoubtedly there are people who feel some reflexive horror at the idea of not being able to look at the transport layer. (In the scenario I am envisioning, there would be no traceroute, perhaps not even a ping as we know it on the Internet today. No 'addressing' that is bound to the protocol (i.e. IP addresses and port numbers), no way to probe/scan a network.) Oddly, I would suspect a fair number of these people also chastise Microsoft for leaving the default setting of MS software products for the least security, and thus requiring user effort to secure the machines. Yet we insist on using a network protocol that allows for casual network probing, port scanning, untraceable DOS attacks, spoofing, snooping, and so forth that requires effort to secure from the defaults. (i.e. firewalls, anti-spoofing filters, add-on encryption, etc.) Where are the people working on creating new transport layer solutions that by default are secure? Where are the equivalent of the folks who urge people to change from MS products due to security reasons to urge people to change from IP for security reasons? But I digress.
If you do not get politically involved in protecting your basic rights on-line, such as privacy and anonymity, and freedom of speach, the internet will not look like anything Gibson envisioned.
Rather it will look much more like what Orwell envisioned: a boot stomping on the face of humanity.
FreeNet is one possible way of combating this, if everyone who can runs a freenet node and thus helps provide protection in numbers. However, even this possibility goes away of the "Progressive" Institutes recommendations are taken by congress and such anonymous, distributed protocols are banned outright.
But of course, it isn't cool to care too much about politicals and thus be labelled a "radical," is it?
To judge by comments here and in the old style media alike, it is far more hip to just be labelled "yet another mindless sheep," complete with social security number, Mediocre credit report, and Discount Card from your local Grocery.
The Future of Human Evolution: Autonomy
I envision a future where there are more banner ads than content, more stupid flash movies than written paragraphs, the moment you turn on your computer you're being tracked by companies like doubleclick, and a day when if you actually want to learn something, you'll pick up a book or a newspaper instead of logging on.
scary? I think we're just about there...
It may sound jaded, but my opinion as to what becomes of the internet is whether or not the geeks continue to maintain some basic control over the medium. We know what the suits do when they get enough control over it (see the RIAA, various federal governments, and my bet is eventually things like the DMCA). The fact is, we geeks tend to be free-information junkies and as far as the suits are concerned, at the risk of sounding silly, dangerous rebels at times. My fear is that eventually as the discovery period closes, the jobs once belonging to geek-types and technology adventurers will become the jobs of journeyman types who are doing their job as a job and not as something they enjoy and beleive in. Many of our managers even now are still geeks and understand and love what we do, but that won't last forever as the money men put their own into management positions and our chosen professions become just another semi-technical line of work. I fear we may not get the say on how it turns out. This may not answer the question as to What technologies do you guys see becoming prevalent, what things will become obsolete... but I fear our type may move on to the Next Big Thing and the internet will become just another commodity. And I also fear that the money men already know this, and the best of them are already planning for it.
My personal curiousity about this matter is wondering about the network that will replace the Internet. I do not believe that in the relatively short time computers have been around that people have already managed to develop 'The' network -- the Internet is just one of the first.
Any opinions on how long it will be until the Internet is either replaced by something new or it evolves/grows into something sufficiently different to be incompatible with what it is today? Given that the Internet only took a bare decade to go from backroom to mainstream, and that the rate of change has only been accelerating, it would be easy to believe that the Internet could find itself being replaced by something new in five to ten years. Just what that is, of course, is hard to say. I would prefer to see a new network evolve that was truly decentralized and dynamic (no central DNS servers to monopolize, no central authority required for addressing, real quality of service, etc.) If I had time, I would probably try to flesh out the ideas for how to build such a network someday.
My personal dark horse choices for setting up new standards/protocols (though not necessarily ones I would favor) in the near future are Nokia and Sony. My private guess is that in a few years those will be the two companies fighting it out for control of standards/access to data. (i.e. people will be accessing the network through cellphones/PDAs or through their home entertainment equipment/PSX[23...n].)
Then, using a beowulf cluster of opal photonic servers in his secret headquarters, he will connect to the implants of the mark of the beast (under ipv6.66) in everyones skin.
The situation will only be saved when Linus the Red, asssited by a crazed gun-totin survivalist ESR, manages to rise from the desert and save the monks of Qumran\Mirabilis, who were held captive by the beast; and they lead the armies of the 31,337 chosen to paradise.
Hopefully I didn't put any [] around my words.
It will be the transport layer for various other networks such as Freenet. As time goes on and the network gets bigger, the need for having more specialized networks will grow.
...you wake up one morning 10 years form now and you hit the power button on your computer and the cute microsft logo pops up. After that you see a dialog box that says connecting to internet-2 "The very best of the Microsft internet experience". Then Microsoft Outlook opens and connects to the Microsoft Internet using the Microsoft tcp/ip-2 stack with the microsft wire protocol from office 2000 built in it and you see all the ole objects being loaded up before a transfer can even occur.
After your connected, Microsft explorer then transfers to the Microsoft hotmail website. You recieve your usual email from work and work and one of the emails catches you eye. You select the message and a video pops up from your manager saying you have done a great job makeing the serers in the computer room more stable. He syas "Great work! I only had to get once last night from a server crash. Great work!
You then grin and feel good abotu your accomplishments and then you wonder about the good old days. Once a night is good hey? I remeber in the old days with unix that this was unaccep[table. Boy have times changed. You then hear a beep. You walk into the kitchen and the coffee is done and there is the paper clip from WOrd smiling at you on the coffee makers lcd screen. You have gulp slowly and dash as fast as you can towards the kitchen and hope the paper clip doesn't see you. The paper clip "says good morning ". Uh can I just have my coffee.
paper clip: "Would you like some help getting your coffee. "
you: NO!
paper clip: "How much cofee do you have left?"
you: I have plenty of cofee. GO AWAY!
paper clip: "I sense fustration, I will connect you to Microsoft Grocery store."
You then unplug the coffee maker and take the coffee out and our yourself a cup.
After this you get dressed and you enter your car for work. As soon as you start the care you here a the usual connecting shreiks of a modem connecting to the internet. You gulp and grip the sterring wheel hard for you know the paper clip will know to talk you on your way to work.
paper clip: I sensed you were difficulty with your microsoft coffee maker so I billed a repair man to your credit card and he shall be over at your house at noon today.
you: Cancel!
paper clip: sorry I can't do that for you.
A few hours later at work you were having lunch with your manager and you were telling him about the old days with linux and tcp/ip-1 stack which today is the iso tcp/ip stack and you mentioned that even though linux was banned by the dmca act of 1999 and also by Bill Gates the "King of the internet", you might still have a few old disks and you could run it at there servers.
The manager blinks at you for a few seconds and then laughs. He says, ", linux can't connect to the network. Remeber Microsoft changed the tcp/ip stack years ago by cripling virtually every client sold with there own tcp/ip stack that was protected by the DMCA act to prevetn linux form ever being compatitible. I am sorry but if the clients can't connect to the server, then teh OS is useless.
You then remeber that George W Bush cancelled the DOJ case the first month he was president and re-assured microsft that they could do whatever they wished because of there $300 million campaign contribution that rivaled Bob Doles whole entire campaign budget for 1996.
This is what I believe will be the scenario in 2010.
Have a look at The Guy I Almost Was by PSP... A comic book story, extremely well done, on this topic.
© Copyright 2000 Kristian Köhntopp
The internet was a cool place back then. It was this incredibly cool system that would let you send mail anywhere in the world in a matter of minutes or to talk (talkd) to people in real-time. There were public message forums (usenet) that allowed people to converse, discuss, and exchange ideas. And yes, even then, you could download pr0n.
It was so cool because there was just nothing like it. It was cool because everyone using the system had a brain. And yes, it was cool because it was underground. Kinda like watching R.E.M. play to a club of 200 people.
And then, I guess maybe arround 1989, came the Portal System, the first real ISP, although they were called "Public Access Unix" systems at the time. And with it came the first flood of the clueless with their stupidity, bigotry, and spam. The Portal System died a few years later, but not before many other similar such systems spring up. The downhill slide had begun.
But it wasn't until 1993-4, with the introduction of Mosaic that things really started to change. Although http has been arround for a year or so, the text-based browsers really didn't seem all that different than Gopher. Mosaic's X/windows display and their addition of the img tag was what really kicked things off.
For a while, the web was cool, because it was very much a two-way system of interaction. Much like usenet news, but much more structured, and more permanent. But this didn't last long. In just a few years, big media and the advertisors discovered the internet.
And what have they done with it? Have they tried to push it in new directions? Have they tried to expand on the principles that made the internet so great to begin with? No, they have not. They have turned it into Television. As if 500 channels of crap were not enough, you now have five million.
So, what really has happened in the last 15 years? Sure, the network is faster and easier to use, but what has really been added since then? The only major new item I have seen in the past 15 years is that you can now buy stuff over the net in a fairly safe and reliable fashion. But that's hardly remarkable or revolutionary, and from a strictly practical matter, not very profitable for the seller either.
What do I see becoming obsolete? Not much. I expect things to become recycled more than anything. Slashdot, for example, is nothing more than a repackaged version of usenet news. Not that this is bad. On the contrary, the same things that made usenet news so great are the same things that make slashdot so great. Oh, and by the way, people were experimenting with moderation on usenet before the web ever existed.
But the major change? I expect TV to die and be replaced by the internet. By the time HDTV ever gets to the mainstreem market, every TV will come with a computer as powerful as today's desktops built right into it. And that will be the biggest step backward that has ever happened to the internet...
-p.
Unfortunately, right now, we are headed that way, with various bills in the US and abroad which gives commercial copyright holders much stronger protection for their works in cyberspace than any other medium. And while most of the internet backbone and basics were developed by non-commercial interests, it's now nearly all in the hands of commercial developers, so they will have a say in what is done on *their* net assuming that nothing changes the way it's going. The Lars interview yesterday also suggested that while we're free to go out and create content that is our own, it's very hard to get people to see that content in the first place. Even nowadays, as the number of commercial 'content' sites on the web flourish, it is very hard to get a non-commercial content site up and running from scratch without a good starting base for the users.
Thus, if things keep going the way they are, we head towards the information kiosk; information and content controlled by a select few, pay-per-view or -use type pricing. The only people this benefits is the commercial business.
However, there are some major lawsuits and cases that are going to help decide if this is the direction that we will go. RIAA vs MP3 (in genenal), arguements against the DCMA, providing ISPs with no content liability, the legalities of linking, etc. There's a lot of cases that slashdot covers in YRO that if you don't follow and watch what happens, the free and open internet becomes the bleak future that Gibson descibed.
"Pinky, you've left the lens cap of your mind on again." - P&TB
"I can see my house from here!" - ST: