Hidden Consequences: Rambus And DDR SDRAM Prices

Jimmie writes: "Looks like Rambus, Inc intends to use licensing fees arising from its recent patent settlements to force the price of DDR SDRAM to be high enough that Direct RDRAM (which we know is ridiculously expensive right now) can compete. When asked that very question, the VP of worldwide marketing at Rambus replied 'I wouldn't argue with that conclusion.' Story at ebnews.com." Sometimes the computer industry's oldest saying seems to be "If at first you don't succeed ... squeeze out some competition."

Comments

Re:doesn't make sense

[smack_attack]

Isn't this a monolopoly of the SDRAM market?

No, it's not a monopoly, they haven't built any hotels yet. :)

Can Rambus possibly be that cocky?

[Anonymous Coward]

For more info on Rambus' past business practices, check Tom Pabst's article on "Why We Don't Trust Rambus"

However, I am puzzled by this strategy. For one thing, despite TI's success at defending their patents on fundamental aspects of DRAM (one of many legitimate IC patents they obtained in the early days of IC manufacturing), RAMBUS must know that there is prior art that weakens their claim. While exisiting licensees would arguably tend to support (or stand idly by) as they pressed others to license their technology, cockily taking on an entire industry in this manner is just begging for a barrage of assualts on the patent itself.

I can't believe they would be so blind, even in the heady glee of being gran such ridiculously broad patents like #6,067,592 System having a synchronous memory device [May 23, 3000] and #6,049,846 Integrated circuit having memory which synchronously samples information with respect to external clock signals

In fact, I think we have a duty to use the accumulated experience of our older (and much underappreciated) readers to start picking off the more outrageous patent claims one by one.

The easier we make it for the remaining memory companies to see their options, the better for *us*

To save you some work, here's a partial list of active Rambus patents (and linked to each of the patents themselves). It's not a complete list (IANAPA), but it should save everyone some work getting started. See anything that looks familiar from "way back when"?


1. 6,075,743. Method and apparatus for sharing sense amplifiers between memory banks

2. 6,075,730. High performance cost optimized memory with delayed memory writes

3. 6,070,222. Synchronous memory device having identification register

4. 6,067,592. System having a synchronous memory device

5. 6,049,846. Integrated circuit having memory which synchronously samples information with respect to external clock signals

6. 6,044,426. Memory system having memory devices each including a programmable internal register

7. 6,038,195. Synchronous memory device having a delay time register and method of operating same

8. 6,035,369. Method and apparatus for providing a memory with write enable information

9. 6,035,365. Dual clocked synchronous memory device having a delay time register and method of operating same

10. 6,034,918. Method of operating a memory having a variable data output length and a programmable register

11. 6,032,215. Synchronous memory device utilizing two external clocks

12. 6,032,214. Method of operating a synchronous memory device having a variable data output length

13. 6,021,076. Apparatus and method for thermal regulation in memory subsystems

14. 5,995,443. Synchronous memory device

15. 5,966,731. Protocol for communication with dynamic memory

16. 5,956,284. Method and apparatus for writing to memory components

17. 5,954,804. Synchronous memory device having an internal register

18. 5,953,263. Synchronous memory device having a programmable register and method of controlling same

19. 5,940,340. Method and apparatus for writing to memory components

20. 5,928,343. Memory module having memory devices containing internal device ID registers and method of initializing same

21. 5,913,046. Protocol for communication with dynamic memory

22. 5,896,545. Transmitting memory requests for multiple block format memory operations the requests comprising count information, a mask, and a second mask

23. 5,872,996. Method and apparatus for transmitting memory requests by transmitting portions of count data in adjacent words of a packet

24. 5,844,855. Method and apparatus for writing to memory components

25. 5,748,914. Protocol for communication with dynamic memory

26. 5,748,554. Memory and method for sensing sub-groups of memory elements

27. 5,680,361. Method and apparatus for writing to memory components

28. 5,657,481. Memory device with a phase locked loop circuitry

29. 5,606,717. Memory circuitry having bus interface for receiving information in packets and access time registers

30. 5,511,024. Dynamic random access memory system

31. 5,499,385. Method for accessing and transmitting data to/from a memory in packets

32. 5,499,355. Prefetching into a cache to minimize main memory access time and cache size in a computer system

33. 5,434,817. Dynamic random access memory system

34. 5,430,676. Dynamic random access memory system

35. 5,390,308. Method and apparatus for address mapping of dynamic random access memory

Maybe this cloud has a shinny lining

[maraist]

Though this situation really eeks me, and I am appauled that Rambus can get away with this sort of patent ( though not knowing all the details, perhaps the patent has legal merit ), there might be a bright side.

Case 1: Rambus doesn't do an Apple and raise the price of licenses to shut out competition. SDRAM will remain the memory of choice for a while. Intel will deminish support for it ( more mishaps with i820, etc ) SDRAM begins to go the way of EDO. DDR-SDRAM is expensive because it doesn't have a wide support base. The rift in memory market-share allows RAMBUS to market RDRAM as server memory: low-volume, high price. Thus the consumer is faced with either cheap, yet antiquated memory or expensive memory. New memory technologies ( which have been trying to emerge ) do not get a chance because the rift in memory markets and chipset support will be hurting.

Case 2: Intel does as is currently projected. DDR-SDRAM becomes comparible to RDRAM in total value. RDRAM is going to win out, as far as I can tell. Intel is most likely only going to support RDRAM, so the market for DDR will be too small to really hit critical mass. I speculate that RDRAM is actually faster then DDR ( especially under heavy concurrent access, such as truely utilized AGP and SMP ). To my knowledge, DDR only ups the speed of the interface, the underlying technology is not significantely different than that of SDRAM ( much like ATA66 or SCSI 100). With this RDRAM will become mainstream, espeically as CPU's break the 1GHZ barrier ( more speculation on my part, based on the starvation of CPU on both memory latency and bandwidth. Of which RDRAM addresses BW. DDR mildly addresses latency ( wrt RDRAM ) and provides BW ( though only superficially ) ). In the medium run, cheaper RDRAM is going to help a lot of power-hungry people ( though probably not as much as it will hurt intro and intermediate-level system purchasers )

Case 3: RAMBUS blatently prohibitively prices DDR-SDRAM. Now SDRAM and RDRAM are the only real players for PCs. What happens here is that RDRAM production can really begin ramping up to critical mass quickly because there is less uncertainty about the future. Prices will drop quickly over time ( though no where near SDRAM prices ). This is exactly what Intel would want. Their low-cost Celeron systems are perfectly suited for 66MHZ SDRAM. If you're an intro system, why would you bother with high-perf memory. Previously the blur between 66 and 100 allowed people to over-clock the external celeron bus. Now there is a world of difference between celeron and their "workstation-class" systems which come at a significant premium. SDRAM will either become cheap or expensive in the medium run ( lower volume production might mean higher prices if demand is sufficiently high. A typical sinario would be over-stocking of ?SDRAM causes prices to plummet, which prompts massive volume reduction, which later causes prices to go through the roof ( where it will stay ) ). Thankfully I don't think SDRAM demand will tank, so it should stay relatively normal for a while. Now here is the good part. There will now be a massive rift between the expensive ( though significant less than today ) RDRAM and the SDRAM. Hard core gamers, most servers and many desk-tops are going to opt for RDRAM. Most value-PCs are going to opt for SDRAM, but those value-conscious hard-core people ( like myself ) are still going to have demand for something inbetween. And perhaps there is a better compromise between latency and BW in a newer technology ( I read memory technologies a while ago about multi-row caching via SRAM which seems an intelligent approach which is compatible with most interfaces )

Basically I'm saying that those who demand performance are going to benifit from the demise of DDR because it'll ultimately be cheaper for them. Those that are on a budget are going to see minimal increases in their low-end memory ( assuming things don't gyrate too wildly ). And those of us looking for an overall better solution might find solace in a new technology that fills this important niche.

In the long run, I think this has good consequences ( if you ignore the whole moral imperative of stifling competition, which we can't really effect here ). In the short run it doesn't really even affect me ( being an AMD person ). It is only the medium run that has issues ( I wonder if I can hold off purchasing another computer for 2 or 3 years ).

-Michael

Re:Maybe this cloud has a shinny lining

[Upsilon]

You're whole argument is based on the simply untrue assumption that RAMBUS is ultimately a better solution than DDR. Well, I've got news for you: it ain't. The goal behind RAMBUS was to increase bandwidth and lower the pin count. They did both of these things, creating a 800 mhz memory module (actually 400 DDR) that uses a 16 bit bus. This delivers the same bandwidth as 200 mhz SDRAM would, since SDRAM uses a 64 bit bus. However, RAMBUS ran into a LOT of unexpected problems. Let's go over them all:

First of all, there's the whole latency issue. Basically, RAMBUS will always have higher latencies then SDRAM. This is a big part of the reason that RAMBUS can't seem to significantly outperform regular PC133 even though it should have 50% more bandwidth.

Then there's the memory limit issue. As one adds more and more RAMBUS memory, because of signalling issues (which I'll be the first to admit I don't completely understand) it becomes extremely difficult to keep it all working. The end result is that there is currently no way to have more than 512 megs of RAMBUS memory. This simply isn't enough for servers, and because of this even Intel, the big RAMBUS supporter, plans on using DDR memory for the server version of Willamette. It won't be long until 512 isn't enough for the desktop either. Do you really want to be stuck with this limit?

There's also the price issue. RAMBUS was supposed to be cheaper than SDRAM because it uses fewer pins, but things don't always work out the way they're supposed to. RAMBUS yeilds are horrible, and it is unlikely they will ever be as good as SDRAM yeilds. RAMBUS also requires a more expensive packaging and needs its own heatsink to deal with heat issues. The idea of ever putting RAMBUS in a laptop horrifies me. Also, because RAMBUS is yeilding so terribly 800 mhz modules are actually quite rare. Most RAMBUS being made is either 600 or 700 mhz, which compares quite pourly with PC133 considering that the 800 mhz modules can barely outperform it. There are also concerns that RAMBUS might not have much room to grow. Some video cards already use 200 mhz (non-DDR) SDRAM, and although these speeds are not mass-produced yet, the biggest limiting factor is motherboards which support it. SDRAM still has a lot of room to increase its frequency. RAMBUS doesn't.

Of course, during all this I was comparing RAMBUS to regular SDRAM, and RAMBUS doesn't compare very well at all. It wins a few points, but not many. Now, let's compare it to DDR SDRAM. DDR SDRAM is estimated to cost about 3% more to manufacture than regular SDRAM. 3%! RAMBUS costs at least 4-5 times as much! Now, PC2100 (133 mhz DDR, they rate it by the bandwidth and not the frequency for marketing reasons. Probably because they don't want the average consumer to be choosing between PC266 and PC800 not realizing what it means.) will offer more bandwidth than RAMBUS, still have the lower latencies of SDRAM, cost significantly less, and not be limited to 512 megs. Do you really want RAMBUS to win?

A larger problem

[Veteran]

Rambus is symptomatic of a much larger problem which is coming in industry; the problem of intellectual parasites. In the past patents have not played that large a part in shaping how industries produce goods; most patent disputes were handled by cross licensing. If producer 'A' had a patent it tried to enforce against producer 'B', usually 'B' had patents it could enforce against 'A'. The results were cross licensing agreements which allowed both companies to continue in production.

Of course sometimes companies had no Patent portfolio to cross license, and were forced to pay royalties. However, being producers themselves, the patent holders couldn't charge too much; corporate 'karma' prevented it - after all if they charged predatory royalties - somebody could do the same things to them.

Rambus on the other hand produces NOTHING; they exist only as a shell firm with a PR department, a legal department, a portfolio of patents, and little else. Because they produce nothing, companies like Rambus are not subject to cross licensing, and corporate 'karma' has no effect on them. The result is that a Rambus style firm is free to gouge on their royalty demands. The only thing which limits them is the threat of a counter suits by deep pocketed memory producers with the object of invalidating the Patents.

In effect companies like Rambus have the moral stature of email spam; both are a parasitic drain on a system which tends to hamper the productive.

I think that we are only seeing the tip of the Rambus future. Because Rambus makes nothing, their 'cost of goods sold' is zero; at least Microsoft has to pay for the blank CD's that they press. Thus, minus their expenses, everything that Rambus takes in is gravy. One of the things that I expect them to do in the future is use their money to acquire additional patents to suck even more blood out of the economy.

It is no accident that both spam and productionless, patent holding companies were dreamed up by lawyers. Neither is an approach that productive people would think of.

Is there a solution to parasitic patent behavior? I think that there is. In the United States patents can only be granted to individuals, NO COMPANY HAS EVER BEEN GRANTED A PATENT ON ANYTHING. Companies obtain patents by having them assigned to them. This is typically done by means of employment contracts which force inventors to assign their patent rights to the corporation. This puts into effect the first layer of parasitic behavior. Most abuse of the patent system occurs because of the assignment process; if the law were changed so that only an INDIVIDUAL could own a patent - as well as be granted one - most of the parasitic and bad consequences of the patent system would disappear.

Big deal

[Reality Master 101]

Even if this manages to survive, all it means is that manufacturers will rush the next generation of memory without patent problems into computers. It's happened before, and it'll happen again. I seem to recall IBM tried to squeeze the industry with Microchannel and Apple tried to squeeze with Firewire. The industry will survive.

--

Where's the DOJ now?

[len(*jameson);]

If this isn't the clearest example of anti-comptetitive practices I've seen in recent years, then maybe I'm missing the point.

No doubt the DOJ will step in 5 years from now after Rambus barely exists and we're on to some new, non sucky, memory type and say "Hey - remember when you were screwing people, well now we're going to get you."

Thanks DOJ. For nuthin'.

Re:Capitalism and its bastard offspring

[malkavian]

Strictly speaking, this is all no longer capitalism. Capitalism is where the market forces prevail. Good, well marketed products succeed, where shoddy products don't grab the consumer heart, and so fail. Capitalism isn't such a bad thing really. It forces innovation (real innovation) and evolution. This, however is a corruption of capitalism. Law has been applied to stifle the growth aspect of the capitalist system. No longer do companies have to fight their competition for the best product, or the best angle on the product. They simply pay lawyers to 'nobble' the competition, and prevent them from competing. This nullifies the effect of market forces, as customers are no longer allowed to buy the best product from the person who finds the way to produce it at the most efficient cost. It all comes down to who has the most expensive lawyers that allows the public to buy what they think they want the public to buy. Other options become illegal (read 'unlicenced applications of patents'). Personally, I think capitalism is ok.. I think this bastardised hybrid is far from ok. A small dash of common sense and looking beyond the end of their noses and past sacrificing all for immediate gain would serve these companies in good stead. I can but keep my fingers crossed that they start to look this direction. Malk