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Ask Robert X. Cringely
Mr. Cringely is one of the computer industry pundits quoted most frequently here
on Slashdot. His weekly column
appears Fridays on the PBS Web site, and
almost every week's edition is submitted to Slashdot multiple times. Cringely
has been involved with personal computers almost as long as they've been around
-- he was one of Apple's first employees -- so in this field he's certainly a
"pundit's pundit" who comes by his opinions through knowledge. Please take a
look at this bio page on his site, then post your questions below. We'll
forward about 10 of the highest-moderated ones to him by e-mail over the weekend and
post the answers as soon as we receive them.
From looking at your bio (and realizing who you were) it would seem that you play upon popular culture's impression of us computer geeks. For instance, use the oft-stated myth that nerds "can't get a date", but in a recent article about system administrators it was revealed that quite a few (from anectdotal evidence) are married. Do you feel that it's really accurate/justified to portray the innovators of the computer world as social misfits, or is it just a stereotype that's sometimes true and sometimes not?
Being in and around Silicon Valley, and also having seen so much change over the face of the computing industry in the last 20 years, what mistakes do you see that are causing so many dotcoms to fail? What steps could they take/could have taken to prevent this from happening? Conversely, what do you think seperates the ones that have made it from the ones that are floating belly up?
Check out Magic Firesheep!
Do you feel that the computer industry is less innovative today than when you started out? More specifically, do you feel anticompetitive practices by certain companies actively restricts new technologies, or are these current titans just one great idea away from becoming also-rans?
Apparently, you were one of the initial employees at Apple. What were your thoughts at the time on what you were doing, where it was going, and did you have any inkling whatsoever that the PC revolution would become what it has today?
You say you want a revolution....
What do you think that the increasing commercialisation of the net is going to lead to? In particular do you think that the work the various standards bodies do is becoming increasingly ignored when it comes to what actually gets used on the net?
What is the most serious, and common, mistake that today's computer companies tend to make? The action can either be detrimental to the company or the industry at-large (or, preferably, both).
Basically - where do you think things zigged when they shoulda zagged?
I don't read ACs: If a post isn't worth so much as a nom de plume to its author then I wont bother either.
The early days are shrouded in confusion, myth, lies, half-truths, and blazing egos. For years nothing was very clear about the origins of RXC.
We'd like to know about the early days when R.X. Cringeley was used as a pseudonym for a gaggle of writers. Were you involved with the 'nym from the beginning, or did you join later? Who else wrote parts of those articles? Where did the source material come from? Any fun anecdotes?
Could you tell us about the early days without putting the 'nym spin on the facts? I would love to hear a single side to this story once and for all, and I consider you to be the only one who can give us the truth.
the AC
Hemos is like...sci-fi fans;he thinks technology is cool, but he hasn't bothered to understand the science it's based on
The story goes that the Robery X. Cringely column written for InfoWorld was part of a collaboration of several writers and pundits, pooling information about the IT sector.
If true, how many folks were involved, and what makes you feel that the Robert X. Cringely name is one available for your exclusive use?
Love your column, love "Accidental Empires" -- now that the fanboy part is over:
Why do the rich and powerful among the Digital Illuminati talk to you? What do you think is it about you that Bill G himself will discuss, if not his secret plans for domination, at least his thoughts about the computing community?
Whatever it is, I hope it doesn't go away!
Potato chips are a by-yourself food.
----
Does the new CEO of HP look as hot in person as she does in that "garage" commercial?
Information wants to be anthropomorphized.
Who/what do you think are the three individuals / companies / technologies whose importance has been most overlooked?
Your column on Homer Sarasohn prompted this question.
What I'm listening to now on Pandora...
Back in 1998 you falsely claimed that you had a PhD and was a professor of journalism at Stanford. Of course the truth came out. How has the truth affected you and your work. Have you suffered any consequences by your lie? And why did you lie in the first place?
PS. To moderators, asking controversial questions is NOT trolling, but good journalism! Ask Nixon!
In your discussions with the various entities of the computing industry, how do you expect to see software distributed in 5-10 years time? Should we expect to see a greater take-up of free speach || open source || free beer || restrictive licensing on the low and high level (drivers and word processors), low and high end (MS Paint and Adobe Photoshop) software? Do the current players believe that they should all be looking log-term into securing their positions through licensing agreements or that they should be selling a service? In particular have you heard any noises of hardware companies who are looking into OpenSourcing all their drivers (i.e. Windows) so as to achieve the maximum penetration of their products?
Never underestimate the dark side of the Source
Robert, In a study that was announced a day or two ago, it was shown that the number of women who are pursuing degrees in computer science related fields is dropping substantially. I'm wondering what you think can be done to improve the appeal of careers in computer science to women, and how the domination of the field by males affects the cultures and product directions of the companies in the field.
He actually answers this very question in his article this week.
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pu lpit/pulpit20000727.html
The answer is no. To quote:
It was six bucks an hour...Who knew they would be successful? I sure didn't.
Then again, you might argue that one can have a lasting effect without enjoying "success", but I will leave that debate to the Amiga enthusiasts...
I've been following this column for a while. Cringely is an interesting guy, and he has certainly been around the industry. Though periodically his essays strike me as a bit ego-centric, he also can also provide some amazing insight. He really can draw together seperate pieces of tech news in a meaningful fashion.
Also, he's been around long enough that he can pull out interesting industry anecdotes. My favorite was his description of Def Con 1. You know: back when it really was a hacker (pardon: "cracker") convention. Very interesting reading.
In summary, I highly recommend this guys column...
--Lenny
here. Interesting reading. Let's try not to have this interview be a complete duplication.
(I don't read your column as often as I'd like, but when I do, I love it. R of the Ns was great.)
You are one of the few columnists out there who seems to have a clue. And I'm not saying that just because you like Linux--everything I've heard from you radiates insight (even when it's wrong). You also work for PBS, who, I assume, can't afford to pay the big bucks. Do you ever find yourself starting articles intended to spank the well-paid idiots *couch*jesseberst*cough* who spout off in commercial fora? Have you ever published any of these articles?
--
Give us our karma back! Punish Karma Whores through meta-mod!
Linux MAPI Server!
http://www.openone.com/software/MailOne/
(Exchange Migration HOWTO coming soon)
In your recent articles on the Carnivore system, you expressed concern that these 'black boxes' may be intended to act as kill switches for the ISPs they are attached to. What (content-wise) do you think would provoke this 'kill' response? Also, do you think that non-content information (protocol choice, encryption, &c) figures into the Carnivore equation?
It may not be just, but it is fair, and that is more important.
I just finished reading Accidental Empires, and quite liked it. One of the things I really enjoyed were the anecdotes about industry leaders, like Bill Gates trying(and failing) to talk with black guys on a street corner. Do you have any new ones that you'd like to share?
The host of the three-hour documentary, "Triumph of the Nerds," is really Mark C. Stephens, one of several authors of a popular gossip column in InfoWorld magazine written under the Cringely pseudonym. Mr. Stephens, 43 years old, penned the column between 1987 and last December, when InfoWorld cut him loose. But in a case with enough twists to give anybody an identity crisis, the magazine and its parent, International Data Group Inc., sued Mr. Stephens in March for trademark infringement to block his continued use of the Cringely name.
So, Robert, are you still Mr. Stephens, or are you someone else now?
After viewing your program I can truley say that it was "insanely great"! As a dedicated Mac user who must occasionally serve time on a DOS machine slogging Windows95, I especially enjoyed the opportunity to learn more about Steve Jobs. However, all the computer stuff aside, I really only have two questions:
1. Is that incredibly cool '66 T-bird convertible yours?
2. What middle name could possibly begin with the letter "X"? Thank you for producing such an outstanding program...I'll certainly read the book at my earliest convenience!
Jon Holland
Mesquite, Texas
RXC> Yes, the '66 T-Bird is mine. It's a rare Q-code model with the 428 cubic inch V-8. 1966 was the only year they offered a 428 in the convertible and fewer than 600 were made. Mine has every option except the 8-track.
X stands for Xavier, my mother's maiden name.
---
I remember waaay back, when I first started reading your column, there were a number of times when you gave quite favorable mentions to various 'alternative' systems (eg Amiga).
What are your hopes for the re-emergence of a multiple-platform world? Do you view Linux, Amiga, BeOS, and others with hope?
(Spudley Strikes Again!)
This question has two related parts.
Based on what you've seen in the last 20+ years, what are the most important leaps foreward so far (in your humble opinion) besides the GUI and the microprocessor (too obvious)?
Looking ahead 5, 10, 20+ years, what still needs to happen to make computers more useful, powerful, widely accepted, affordable, whatever?
I guess I'm hoping for a little insight into the past (I was only born the year the Apple II was released) and some thoughts, not on where we're going, but on where we should be going.
I'm a developer and I am curious as to how you think the software will change in the future.
I know from looking at many contracted software packages that quality is something usually forgotten in the windows world. Badly written hard to use and usually very buggy. Do you feel at some point that companies will finally stand up for themselves and demand good software?
As for hardware, with the standars being modified so quickly will we end up back at a propriatary level again? I ask because of the splitting between amd and intel on the type of interface on the motherboard for the processor (not to mention the memory style variations happening) Will programmers end up writing towards a propriatary box/cpu do you think?
Tim Hayes
If ignorance is bliss, the world is full of blissful people
In my ongoing struggle to keep abreast of technology news, I regularly read your column, along with Slashdot, Good Morning Silicon Valley, and a few other sources. What, if anything, do you read to keep up with what's going on?
Who stands the best chance of making money form distributed filesharing technologies like Gnutella?
What sort of revenue model do you expect to succeed?
What steps do you expect RIAA, MPAA, & others will take to try to stop it?
Will they resort to guerrilla tactics to try to dismantle the system?
Who will sue them when they do it?
Browser? I barely know her!
Moderators, please read the bio before you mod this question. Bob is a pilot who tried to build a plane in 30 days. His show was on PBS, same and Triumph
What advice would give someone wanting to get his pilot's license? Is it worth the time? Is it worth the money?
Pair up in threes. - Yogi Berra
oh, I found I do have an intelligent question to ask afterall;
As a journalist, you probably have something to say about this topic.
Assuming you're aware of this recent spat between nVidia and some of the hardware-review sites on the internet, what is your take on this issue?
Should companies be held ethically responsible (I'm not saying lawsuits and fines here - I'm talking court of public opinion) for "strongarm tactics" in selecting journalists to bestow prerelease hardware upon?
Or do you think that the journalist who reviews a product should avoid conflicts of interest?
What do you think is the impact of this rather standard industry practice, and how do you think this practice could be eliminated?
if it ain't broke, then fix it 'till it is!
These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
Do you think that the dominance of Wintel over Apple was due to technological superiority or because of Steve Jobs's ego getting in the way of good business decisions?
LK
"Hi. This is my friend, Jack Shit, and you don't know him." - Lord Kano
It seems a lot of the questions so far could be answered by reading a 1996 PBS interview with Cringely on the PBS website.
For example, there are several people who want to know what the X stands for. His answer from the 1996 interview was: "X stands for Xavier, my mother's maiden name."
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Work for Change & GET PAID!
But what does this anonymity buy you, really? Especially one that's not obviously a handle, and where your sources (and therefore your source's competition) know who you are.
Some writers use handles because what they write is simply too hot to be open. Some use handles to attract the attention of people who wouldn't otherwise be interested. But this isn't the case, here. The articles are balanced, fairly free of pointless bias, interesting in their own right and very well-done.
So, WHY?
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
Given that we've had umpteen OS wars, like unto the crusades in both their bloodiness and the invective used, can you discern any patterns in what determines the survivors of such conflicts?
/. bias, what would you change in how Linux and BSD is progressing to maximize its survivability. Or is this all 20th Century thinking, and is the OS truly becoming irrelevant?
For example, is it really the games that determines the winner, the "killer app", the ease of use, the cost, the marketing, or is it the media attention. If it is one of these, what are the most important elements, IYO, in determining the winner.
And, given the
Will in Seattle
I consider myself somewhat of a computer industry prognosticator. If I were to sum up how I am able to predict and analyze the industry I would say that it is 1) being wide read and 2) knowing people who are in the know. I think you would agree (if not, then my question is "why not?").
So my question is: what do you recommend as the best reading material (books, periodicals, etc)? And how much time do you spend everyday reading them?
Do you read online news sites? If so which ones and how much?
And the question that is probably least important but the most interesting to this community is:
Do you read slashdot? If not, why not? If so, do you do it for value, or for entertainment?
Thanks
Specifically, do you think it's still *realistic* to take a good idea for a web service from the garage into the big leagues without $3 million in venture capital to start with, as some analysts seem to say is required?
- A story about how the Microsoft trial was going to be ended by a patent on active content in web pages (or something like that) that was granted to some obscure company.
- A story about Motorola continuing to clone Macs without MacOS, but instead using the Mac emulator from ARDI.
If I had time to look through your archives I know I could find many more examples. The pattern seems to be that you drop a bombshell, then you say "when this blows up and the rest of the press catches on, remember that you read it here first!", and the next week when nothing has happened you move onto the next bombshell. My question: what's up with that?I hope this question doesn't sound too confrontational. I enjoy reading your column, I've just learned to treat it as entertainment rather than information.
In the computer industry, there seems to be rare moments when true innovation actually happens. The rest just seems to be a continual evolution and building upon old innovation (which is a good argument for strong limitations on computer tech. patents, but that's a different question).
Examples of innovation (in my opinion), were the mouse, windowing GUI, transistor, Integrated Circuit, ethernet, TCP/IP, hypertext markup(way before HTML), data compression, C, multi-user OS, etc. Okay, so in reality those were all evolutionary too, but there are certain developments that have a qualitative difference rather than a quantitative one. I'm thinking paradigm shift or inflection point.
My opinion is that many of the current "hype innovations" today are really just evolutionary and not that significant qualitatively: wireless computing, software hosting, Storage Area Networks, Clustering, Java, etc.
Which recent developments do you see as having the most lasting qualitative impact?
Witness Napster, CARNIVORE, and the French goverment trying to tell Yahoo what to do. Centralized authority is losing its grip on its ability to enforce policy.
How do you think this will turn out? Will we all end up being netizens in flowing white robes, or will we have to pay protection money to the "mob.net" to keep bandits and theives out of our Network Neighborhood?
Thanks to an AC's post about the pre-nerds faq, I have negated a couple of my more pressing questions, but anyway, to get on with the questions.
I know that you feel that maintaining a valid history of events in the technology world is an important goal of your life. (Or at least I was lead to believe this by most of your work, save Plane Crazy). You mention some of the raw information that you have recieved in your newest pulpit article. However, you don't include links, or information on how to receive access to these historical records.
Do you have any plans to make available the raw materials you have received, either on the web, or in libraries, for scholarship, both by historians of today and tomorrow?
I understand that your shows do a reasonable job of attempting to digest this information for popular consumption, but there are always going to be people who are interested in the actual documentation of this history. Especially, when you mention a rare account of the beginnings of AOL, (Only 12 copies made!) but there seems to be no place where this information is being archived, or being made publicly available. I mean, even your own private machine collection is extreemly interesting. I'm lucky enough to have access to some of these ancient machines at a computer store near my university, but now, it's becomming more and more difficult to get access to them.
Don Armstrong -".naidnE elttiL etah I"
http://www.donarmstrong.com
I would be very interested to hear your comments on how future open source "productivity suites" will or will not be able to compete with MS Office dominance of this sector. In particular, do you think that Sun open-sourcing the Star Office suite could actually pose a threat to Microsoft's Office cash cow, and will the "office.net" and "superbrowser" that MS is currently working on make the Star Office and other office platform open-source efforts obsolete? And, do you think that the "subcribtion" model for software "renting" via the net will be a viable business model, or would the introduction of this business model by MS and others actually catapult GPL'd software use into the mainstream, therefore MS would insane to actually try implement it and expect success?
Your wise words on this subject would be greatly appreciated.
Real men don't need signitures!!!