UK Publishes Asteroid Armageddon Report

szyzyg writes: "The UK NEO Task Force which was set up last year has finally delivered its report and recommendations on the Asteroid threat. The recommendations include money to build a 3 metre search telescope in the Southern Hemisphere, and more funding for research in the field. The report is written for politicians and makes a good introduction to the subject, including disturbing facts and figures."

Comments

There is a much cheaper solution

[jailbrekr2]

Just keep a team of oil rig workers on standby, in case they are needed for such an emergency....

On asteroids

[Signal 11]

Having just finished reading Arthur C. Clarke's book Hammer of God (a book I heartily recommend), I've spent alittle time thinking about this too. The question isn't if the asteroid will hit, it is when, and this report will without question bear that out.

What we need is, in addition to being able to detect them, is outposts on other planets. It is necessary for the survival of our species and if we could just get our act together long enough to stop squabbling over things like money and national debt, we could help ensure that the human race won't be snuffed out like the dinosaurs before us.

We ought to put NASA under the DoD and give it a similar budget - afterall, this IS about defense - it is defense against mother nature.

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Alternate site

[LordStrange]

SpaceRef Also has this story but with the actual paper attached in HTML.

Children's astronomy book?

[blazer1024]

Okay, I just skimmed over the thing, didn't really feel like reading it, but what I see when I look at all the pretty pictures, is a children's book on astronomy.

Seriously, that's kind of what it looks like. A book geared towards 8-10 year olds. Oh, right, they said it was targeted at politicians, I should've known it was gonna look like that.

Re:Yep, we need more funding to study this

[arnie_apesacrappin]

Ahh, but here comes the big problem from the old debate days. When weighing disadvantages (usually things like genocide, nuclear war, loss of human rights, etc.) we come to a problem. How do I weigh something that has a high probability of happening to a small percent of the population (like 5% of american deaths will be caused by cancer this year [this was made up, IANAStatistician]) with a definite time frame vs something with a very small probability of happening to the entire population with an indefinite time frame (a large asteriod will kill the entire population some day)? It is a very touchy issue that can be argued in favor of either side. It comes down to we need to make the best statistical analysis (based on reports like these) that we can, and try to distribute money as fairly as possible.

And on the lighter side, I think Deep Impact taught us the best lesson: if we would have just waited for the whole thing to show up near Earth, we could have blown up the entire thing, instead of just one of the pieces we created earlier. I guess the people in Deep Impact didn't see Armageddon. If they had, they would have known to drill to 800ft, not just 100m.

You mean 90 years...

[Derwen]

A quick google search for information on the asteroid which detonated over Tunguska in Siberia in June 1908 will pull up several sites, including this one (picked at random).

The problem with statistically possible events is that they do occur, and in unpredictable ways, too. The 1908 impact happened in the most emote and sparsely-populated region on the planet. As we probably won't be so lucky next time (whether it is in 1 or 10,000 years time) it is fortunate that some people recognize the problem.
- Derwen

How big is it?

[roystgnr]

Heh...what are we going to do once we find an Asteriod that's coming to crash into earth in the next 3 to 4 years? I don't think that we have the technology to either divert the asteriod or destroy it...

How big an asteroid are you talking about? Yeah, if we discover an upcoming impact with a 10 km asteroid (or an Asteroid the Size of Texas, or God forbid a Comet the Size of a Hollywood Script Writer's Ignorance), then we're screwed. Fortunately, as the report says, those 10 km asteroids only come around every hundred million years or so. We can afford to gamble for a while.

The concern is that we'll be hit by something a couple hundred meters wide: big enough to craterize a city, small enough that we can't survey them with currently allocated resources, yet small enough that they could be pushed aside with an H-bomb if discovered early enough, or their target areas could be evacuated if they were discovered late.

Scientists Propose Telescope in Southern Hemispher

[Cy Guy]

From a BBC Article on the report:

A task force established to assess the threat of so-called Near Earth Objects (Neo's) has concluded that the risk is not science fiction but something that should be taken seriously.

The three-member team called on ministers to seek international partners to build a new £15m telescope dedicated to sweeping the skies for threatening objects.

The three-metre (9.8 feet) survey telescope, based in the Southern Hemisphere, would be designed to detect objects down to a few hundred metres across.

The asteroid threat is real...

[meckardt]

although probably not especially urgent.

For reference, I offer the book "Rain of Iron and Ice: The Very Real Threat of Comet and Asteroid Bombardment" by John S. Lewis, Addison Wesley Longman, Inc., January 1995. Lewis gives a very good historic and factual overview of meteor impacts on Earth and elsewhere, and presents some interesting speculation about the actual danger to Earth from falling asteroids and comets.

Fact: meteors do hit Earth. About 1/2 are of asteroidal origin. The remainder are cometary debris. MOST break up in the atmosphere. But those are the small ones. Anything larger than a certain size will reach the ground.

Fact: Based on SpaceWatch observations, there are probably about 2000 objects larger than 1 kilometer in diameter in Near Earth Orbits. These are the civilization killers. NEO bodies larger than 0.1 km in diameter probably number over half a million. These would cause widespread devistation. (Meteor Crater, AZ was formed by an asteroidal piece about 30 meters in diameter!)

The 0.1 Km strikes occure (on average) every 100,000 years. The larger asteroids strike Earth (on average) every 100,000,000 years (with the last one suspected as being 65 million years ago). No, they don't happen very often, but they do happen. We will soon be in a position to do something about it. I, for one, would like to be able to. The first step is knowing about potential threats.

Some Extra Info + Links

[szyzyg]

Here's some extra things to look at....

My Map of all NEOs

BBC coverage of these events

My 'Musical Interpretation' of the report ;-)

Global Impact Calculator

[Alien54]

As always, when this sort of news comes out, this Sky and Telescope Magazine webpage comes in handy. It has plenty of links.

Especially useful and entertaining is this Solar System Impact Calculator, where you if you are lucky, you can help Marvin the Martian get rid of the pesky planet blocking his view of Venus. :) You can check out effects of impacts on other planets as well. Just don't make Marvin mad ...

:)

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"Never apply a Star Trek solution to a Babylon 5 problem."

Worst case scenario-

[WolfWithoutAClause]

Ok, first the Near Earth Asteroids are bad if they are heading for earth, but they aren't the worst, because they are mostly predictable. The worst are the extrasolar asteroids/comets that come barrelling in from outside the solar system, from the Oort cloud or beyond.

You might only get a few months warning on those at best (they mostly shine within the orbit of mars), and at worst, they come at you from the sunward direction where our telescopes can't see them. You wake up one day wondering what that wall of fire is. Or maybe we don't wake up at all.

There probably is no reasonable defense against such asteroids. Moving them- there probably is no way that can be done in that short time scale.

Think about it. This is a planet busting disaster and there is no way to save the earth.

Its not particularly likely to happen soon, but it will happen eventually. Even long period comets that come round once a millenia or so. So this time they line with the earth for the first time and...

There is one way for humans to survive however. We need to build space habitats as soon as we possibly can.

Check out:

Artemis

Neofuels

Permanent

Sleep well, don't have nightmares!