Space Object May Be Killer - In 2030

Somewhere in the chorus, Bandwidth_ writes: "Time to start stockpiling those beans and working on your Y2K shelter again. Astronomers have confirmed that object 2000 SG344 has a 500-to-1 chance of hitting earth in the year 2030, a much higher probability of impact than any object before it. Scientists aren't certain what it is, but it's most likely a tiny asteroid or it could be a leftover Apollo rocket booster. It is not a major threat, damage would be contained to a localized area in the 1 to 3 megaton range if a collision were to ever happen." As jamie points out, this probably ought not worry you unduly, but it is the first nonzero-rated object on the Torino scale. N2UX points to an MSNBC article on the object which points out that the threat has now been downgraded to a more comforting level.

Comments

There is No Impact Threat In 2030

[Sara Chan]

While the world's media outlets are still sending out sensationalist headlines about the latest asteroid scare, new precovery data discovered only hours after yesterday's alert has all but eliminated the 2030 impact scenario pulished last night by the IAU and NASA. According to new calculations undertaken by the NEODys (Near Earth Objects--Dynamic Site) team in Pisa this morning, the unidentified object with the designation 2000SG344 will miss the Earth in September 2030 by at least 3 million miles.

Taking into account new precovery data of the object taken by the Catalina Sky Survey on 17 May 1999 (see http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/mpec/ K00 /K00V15.html), the NEODys team has calculated that the 2030 impact scenario is no longer real (see http://ne wto n.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2000SG 344;main .)

As a result of the new data, there has been a dramatic improvement in the orbital uncertainty. In fact, the nominal miss distance for this object is now given as 0.0346 AU on 22 September 2000 (22.89 UT22.19). What this means is that the object will come no closer to the Earth in 2030 than 3 million miles! In other words, the claim that this object may hit the Earth in 2030 has now been completely ruled out - less than 34 hours after the IAU and NASA decided to announce a "significant impact risk" to the world.

It was unwise of the IAU and NASA to rely on the 1999 one-night stand data by the LINEAR team. The IAU/NASA impact announcement was premature and alarmist.

(Thanks to B. J. Peiser for the above.)

The real article contradicts

[gunner800]

With the new data, we can say that the closest the object can approach the Earth in 2030 is 11 lunar distances on September 23....

While the new orbital calculations have ruled out the 2030 event, they have also increased the likelihood of encounters in years after 2030....

The media attention was due to an early announcement; NASA is no longer saying that there is any chance in 2030. There is, however, a 1-in-1000 chance in 2071.

Please click links in stories before posting.


My mom is not a Karma whore!

Re: Evens

[Mr Z]

Actually, I think they're slightly different. An "N in M" probibility means that the probability p of that event occurring is given by p = N/M . Here, N specifies the relative number of outcomes that represent the event under consideration, and M represents the relative number of total number of possible outcomes.

In contrast, "M to N" means that if you performed M + N trials, one event would occur M times and the other would occur N times. Here, M and N represent the relative number of outcomes of two distinct events, with no statement made about the total number of possible outcomes. Often, the number associated with N is the event in question, and the "other event" is merely "the event associated with N didn't occur." In that case, the probability p that the event associated with N occurs is given by p = N / (N + M) .

So, by this argument, 1-in-2 odds is equivalent to 1-to-1 odds. The idea is that the first nomenclature specifies the likelihood of a single event compared to the total of all events, and the second nomenclature specifies the likelihood of one event relative to another event. Got that?

At any rate, with a 1-in-500 chance, the difference between 1-in-500 and 500-to-1 is negligible.

--Joe
--
Program Intellivision!

Now's the Time!

[Gefiltefish]

My fellow geeks:

Now is the time to play the "Only if you were the last man on earth" card.

Go for it!

You might get lucky.

Torino Scale

[Pope Slackman]

It should be noted that the Torino scale is the probability of a 1970's Ford Gran Torino
station wagon being propelled into low Earth orbit, if the impact were to occur.

--K
Hey. It had to be said.
---

10 years early

[imac.usr]

Funny, when I was growing up, I was told the world would end at 6:28:15 AM on February 6, 2040....

As I grew older, though, the powers that be extended the deadline to 29940, so we're OK.

(Mac developers will understand.)

international defense?

[passion]

This begs to bring up the topic once more of whether we should build an international space defense system. Of course, we should be able to pick things out 20-30 years beforehand, but still - what if we caught something less than a year beforehand?

The initial piece in "Rendezvous with Rama" by Arthur C. Clarke posed this type of question, and he posed a rather interesting possible solution.

Hopefully, we can prevent ourselves from going the way of the Dinosaurs - or those shitty movies that were made in the last few years.

Page Changed Only Hours After I Submited Story

[Bandwidth_]

Hmmm, interesting. I read the "real" article as well, only a few hours earlier than you.
When I read it it still stated there was a chance for impact in 2030. I noticed the page changed a few hours after I submitted the story. You can't really blame me for not being able to edit my story submission.

But thanks for pointing out the update to everyone else.

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