Flu Epidemics Coincide with Sunspots

Croatian Sensation writes "According to this article flu epidemics are four times more likely when sunspot activity is high. They've analyzed records going back to 1729 and indeed, the correlation is statistically significant. Neat." The research seems a little... thin.

Comments

Flu causes sunspots?

[NewWazoo]

No, no, no... what *I* want to see is evidence that all those millions of people being sick somehow induces sunspots...

Imagine that... "Cover your mouth when you sneeze, Johnny, or you may cause another sunspot."

TheNewWazoo

There could very well be a relationship

[Guppy]

Some folks here that don't think there could possibly be a connection, that this study is just an example of the abuse of statistics. But I'd like to bring up a point.

I can't think of a possible physical mechanism that directly links sunspots and influenza. But how about an intermediate step? Sunspots influence weather. And weather... influences the transmission of influenza. Influenza is a seasonal disease, after all.

A slight change in the climate wouldn't by itself trigger an epidemic, and it probably wouldn't stop one -- epidemics/pandemics are probably triggered more by antigenic drifts/shifts. But it might ever so slightly change the odds that a new strain will have the chance to gain a foothold, maybe enough to be statistically detectable.

And who knows? Maybe there's even a linkage with the antigenic changes as well. Suppose that, like in humans, these weather changes are influences the transmission of animal strains of influenza in wildlife and farm animals too. It's thought that the mixing of strains from different species (Mainly Human/Avian/Porcine) in a host susceptible to more than one variety (Like pigs) is what drives antigenic shift -- which gives us epidemics. Hmmm...

They call it the "sun's hearbeat"

[OlympcSponsor]

They're talking about both parallel and concentric layers of gas: the concentric ones are the outer convective layer, the inner radiative layer, and the thin shear layer between them, known as the tachocline. The convective and radiative zones rotate at different speeds (not "opposite directions!"), while the tachocline changes speed periodically; the speeds of the layers above and below the tachocline also change periodically, but in opposite directions (the changes in speed are in opposite directions, meaning one speeds up while the other slows, not opposite rotations) -- which implies that the tachocline is oscillating.

While the radiative zone rotates essentially as a solid body (despite the fact that it's actually a highly-compressed plasma), the convective outer zone doesn't. In fact, the polar regions of the convective zone have a one-year oscillation coupled to the tachocline, while the equatorial regions have a 1.3-year oscillation. These, I think, are the "parallel layers" from the article.

What's entirely unexpected about this is the period: everyone thought it would be connected to the 11-year sunspot cycle, but instead there are two separate periods, 1.0 and 1.3 years, neither of which has any obvious relationship with the sunspot-cycle period. Once again, we find that the simple models aren't a great match for reality -- and science is nowhere near the end of its search for understanding of the universe. (Which is a good thing!)

As for flu epidemics, I am not educated.
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