Microsoft Postpones Office XP Subscriptions

shroom writes: "Microsoft has dropped the Office XP subscription plan, at least for the near future. Wonder if this means they were getting too much heat from IT managers, or if they have something else up their sleeve."

Comments

uh huh

[QuantumG]

I can see that you were trying to be funny, but as an open source programmer I remind you that you do not own the software I am so gracious to permit you to run or copy. That is why we put licenses on them. We specifically are saying that we retain ownership to them and that you must agree to the license before you use it. This is pretty obvious with the GPL but it is also true with the BSD license (specifically you agree that you wont sue me if you want to use the software). Even if I put my code in the public domain, and you choose to run it, you do not own it. The only way you can "own" the software you run is by writing it yourself or purchasing the copyright.

possible reasons for hold off

[joq]

Maybe the reason for the move is, MS could be waiting for the fed (Greenspan) to announce yet another raise or cut in interest rates (which is due for for May the last was to boost the economy sort of a freebie) which could also determine whether companies would jump up and buy buy buy, or wait wait wait. Analysts predict a stronger growth in the third quarter since most people are vactioning and sell off stocks in the summer, etc, etc. (no bs I dig the stock market)

Or perhaps some security flaws (which are high in MS) prompted developers to assess those in order to make it more attractive as opposed to the launch of Windows2000 where speculation was the product had over 60k bugs. By releasing YACP (yet another crappy product) MS could lose huge revenues all over the place, which is crucial especially when alternative OS' have been making their marks. Also remember their so called "Anti Piracy" feature was cracked recently.

Which reminds me... I remember when I was working on Theories in DoS, I made this program called Bubonic which was messing up Windows2000 and NT machines. I repeatedly tried to benchmark what was going on when I made the program and submitted it to Bugtraq since it messed up Windows' rpc crap entirely. Well after the advosry MS released a patch for rpc stuff saying they discovered an undiscovered flaw that affected rpc yadda yadda.

Hardcore Crypto

Bad news for free software?

[DeadPrez]

I was kinda hoping this year and next year would would be when the horns locked between free software (as in GPL/BSD licensed) and subscription-based (as in Microsoft's). I felt strongly this would be the epic battle...and the turning point. It kinda irks me to see it delayed.

Why is now a better time than later? For one the economy is slowing down and that means the peanut counters are watching what is spent. Also, all the new Microsoft software doesn't have major advancements (ie. major imitation of other innovative software). That, combined with subscription based software spells disastor, IMHO. Being an IT Manager I see no reason to upgrade my 100 machines running w2k and office2k just to pay XX money XX times a year. Without subscription based software a lot of managers will probably fall into the same upgrade routine down every two years thus far (wait for complaints someone emailed a Word doc they can't read with their slightly older yet basically just as functional copy of Word).

With Samba's new features like adding printers and remote management as well as ACL lists coming into maturity the outlook (no pun intended) looks bad for MS on all fronts. I want the 2 bulls locking horns this year. I know a bunch of you say they are already locking, but I disagree. It has been mostly a stare down until the upgrade cycle comes around this time.

Lets remember, IT Managers only have so much ability for change. No CIO/COO/CFO is going to go for non MS stuff unless it seriously hits them in the pocket book...and on a monthly basis. Status quo is good enough until then.

Anyway, lets all hope MS changes their mind back because the time is right with the slowing economy, the maturity of free software and lack of real "new stuff" in the next versions of MS software, for free software to win the war.

The real reason why.

[loraksus]

This does eventually get to the XP thing, read on.

I'm bored. Slightly drunk. At home, on a saturday night. Alone. No, I'm not bitter. No. This is not part of the story. Enjoy.

Dark room: Scrawny man with a Microsoft T-shirt sits by a roaring fire, holding a white cat. His name-tag - emblazoned in gold, reads "Bill". Several disemboweled penguins hang from the wall, dripping entrails and blood.

A old bald man enters.
"Mr. Gates, you wished to see me?"
"My CEO, ah, yes. Come in Mr. Ballmer" The scrawny man responds. Stroking the white cat, he continues.
" The United States Department of Justice has damaged our financial situation. I am no longer the richest man in the world. What should we do? We can not allow such treachery to go without punishment!"

"Sir, we could use this opportunity to unveil our secret weapon!"
"You're not talking about . . ."
" Yes, I am"
The room goes deathly quiet, even the squealing penguins in the cages fall silent.

"Very well then - Send in . . ."
Dramatic pause, lightning flashes, thunder, well, thunders.
" The ACCOUNTANT!"
More thunder, we catch a glimpse of a worker with an arc welder, picking up a large thin piece of metal off the floor.
A scrawnier person enters. He looks very ferrety, almost identical looking to Mr. Gates. He wears an armband of a flying window. In other circumstances, he would be called "mini me". This however, is not Austin Powers, nor even a multi-million dollar movie. It is a slashdot post.
" Greetings from the boiler room Chief Software Architect, Sir." He goosesteps in, legs seemingly without joints.
Penguins squeal in terror, off to the side, we see a small daemon, begin to cry. The white cat darts off to the corner.
Varick salutes - "Heil Microsoft!"
Gates nods approvingly, "So Mr. Varick, what have you come up with this time?"
"Sir," Varick plugs a laptop into a projector - "World Domination" is projected on the wall.
In a high pitched voice, he continues, " By not hiring millions of recently un-employed tech workers to answer phones and "authorize" versions of XP, Microsoft can, single-handedly, doom the United States Of America to a several long years of recession."
Balmer nods, " Ultimately their weak government will fall to hordes of angry citizens - and the politicians will die slow, painful, brutal deaths! Utter chaos will result! Cities without leaders!"
The slide shows a burning city, with politicians hanging from lamp posts.
Varick switches slides and squeals "And we shall be the beacon of hope and stability! We will swoop in and save the people from their own madness!"
Maniacal laughter rebounds in the room.
Gates stands up, lifts up both arms and bellows "One World, one Web, one Program!" The screaming of the penguins crescendo's, as Gates' cat tears into them, seemingly insane - feathers fly through the air and blood splatters all over Varick - "Ein Volk, ein Reich, ein Betriebssystem" - he screams (One people, one realm, One operating system according to the fish), the daemon falls next - torn in half.
" We shall rule the world!" Ballmer yells " We shall be Gods!"

Several minutes later, the frenzy stops, leaving only the fire, pools of blood, the three men and a bloody cat.
"Fuck with Microsoft will they?" Gates asks in a hushed voice. "Fuck with Microsoft?"

I have a shotgun, a shovel and 30 acres behind the barn.

It's all about the $$$

[SpookyFish]

The subscription model lowers the cost of entry, which would in theory increase the number of customers. Office, however, has virtually no competition, so it likely would make them less money, especially in the short term. Microsoft realized that 90% of companies will buy Office and also pay to upgrade it every couple versions, regardless of the cost (within reason).

This kind of stuff is why I hate Microsoft, but I can't deny they have some good business minds there.

That's my theory, but what do I know?

Re:It's all about the $$$

[mikethegeek]

"The subscription model lowers the cost of entry, which would in theory increase the number of customers. Office, however, has virtually no competition, so it likely would make them less money, especially in the short term"

I think you make the point right there.

Simply put, the market for Office is pretty much saturated as it is. A subscription/rental model HAS to have a lower entry cost than did outright purchase, or else no one in their right mind would buy it. If the rental for Office XP for a year is greater than the cost of buying Office 2000, everyone will give M$ the finger.

With Office already having an installed base in the tens of million, there is no profit to be gained up front in going to such a model. In fact, it almost HAS to be run as a loss leader for a year or two just to get it going. Which will be very bad for M$'s bottom line, as they have not been doing quite so well the past couple of years as it is. With Office, not Windows, making up the majority of M$'s revenue, this is a hit they cannot afford to make.

In the long term, a rental/subscription model will make much more money, as it would amount to a perpetual "Microsoft Tax" on 90+% of the computer using population. But it's no longer 1995.... Microsoft is still a monopoly, true, but for the first time since DOS, they have a competitor (Linux). Linux's growth rate is outpacing Microsoft on desktops and, more importantly, servers (where .NET will be controlled). ONE misstep, and Microsoft could find Linux with 10% or more of the desktop market, and StarOffice/OpenOffice being rolled out en masse on corporate desktops. To be honest, I believe that this process will continue. It's inevitable that Linux, because of the fact it's the only true cross-platform, scalable mainstream OS on the market, will eventually gain a greater number of desktop users than Apple.

This is why Microsoft HAD no choice but to involve Linux in .NET. The whole point of .NET is to fundamentally change the PC marketplace from individual machines in local lans connected to the internet to a client/server model with .NET as the server. This is their only hope to somehow gain some control of the inernet standards, and the server end, which up to now they have completely failed to do outside the client end. It's much harder to dictate to the server from the client end, but much easier vice versa. Microsoft HAS to somehow stop Linux/BSD from dominating the server space, or at least, manipulate them in their favor, so as to not eventually lose the client side, or at the very least, see 10-20% of the client market go to Linux. If that happens, it's all over for them, as the market will be FAR too large for M$ to stay out of.

Why? If Linux were to gain 10-20% of the mega billion dollar dollar PC market, it would be large enough itself to sustain Microsoft competitors. Worse, these competitors would be free of M$ interference and OS "features" that break their code, etc. M$ would be forced into the Linux software market. And that will be the END of Microsoft. If M$ makes Office/IE/etc for Linux, an operating system that they CANNOT embrace and extend, or gain proprietary control of (the GPL prevents this), it's all over. M$ ceases to be a monster, and merely becomes another application company.

This is why M$ is going to try to break the GPL. I fully expect some kind of anti-GPL "DMCA" esque law to be handed over to our wonderful, corruptable congressmonsters soon, if it's not already happened. What will make this interesting is that to break the GPL requires also breaking copyright. How they will manage to do it while maintaining the draconian IP control of the DMCA is beyond my ability to guess.

Why Upgrade?

[kstumpf]

My company is a Microsoft shop (other than my machines) and so, to my dismay, we use Office. I'm really curious to see if we will upgrade to Office XP, and if so, why we would upgrade. What could they possibly add to Office that would warrant paying the upgrade cost? I know our company RARELY uses any of the bells and whistles later versions have provided. I don't see anything in the feature list that would benefit anyone I know to upgrade. Between the cost of the software, deployment time, orientation, and inevitable bugfixes, where is the gain? Don't you benefit more from productivity software by sticking with what's familiar and is already working fine? What exactly is the purpose of this corporate trend to want to run the very latest bleeding-edge productivity app?

hmmm

[PicassoJones]

Maybe this is an attempt to save face after looking like a moron with that Mundie speech.

Here we are saying "This software is yours, do whatever you want with it," as it was in the beginning.

Then Microsoft came along and implemented a version of BASIC and said, pay me for this, and you can use it.

Then it said, pay me, and you can use this version, and no other version, and nobody else can use this version -- he's gotta pay too.

And finally evolved into, "This software is not yours. It's ours. But if you pay us, we'll let you use it--but only in ways officially sanctioned by us. After all, it's our software. And we won't tell you how you're allowed to use it until you've already agreed to the terms."

At this point, we gain popularity, stemming from the days in the beginning when all was pure and good: "Software is owned by people. We shall not stifle creativity, talent, and the wants of users for the sake of profit. Brothers and sisters hear me, this software belongs to you. Do with it as you please."

But these calls were stifled by Microsoft, "All your software are belong to us," they called. But, people got tired of giving money to Microsoft whenever Microsft said so. Microsoft can only make money when people buy more software... if people don't upgrade, Microsoft loses. Microsoft's biggest competitor is itself.

"Lo", they said, "your software belongs to us. No longer shall you be constrained to ancient practices of 'purchasing,' you will now rent your software from us. You shall pay us money, and we shall let you use our software for a month."

The free-software prophets said, "You own your own software. Do not succumb to the demands of the false gods of Redmond." And they were right. And the people agreed.

Microsoft realized they were in trouble. "We shall persuade the people that it makes no sense to let people have `property' on their hard drive." The RIAA and MPAA agreed. Microsoft told the people, "Behold, do not believe the lies told to you by the Free Software Foundation. They go against the ideals of our society. They are un-American"

And DMCA had been passed for the government was duped.

But the people were wise; they should own their files. They scorned and laughed at Microsoft.

Microsoft was angered. "We shall try to trick them into thinking that they do own their sofware. For we have a 'Shared-source' policy." They were full of crap.

Microsoft was again scorned at. "Perhaps," they said, "it will look like they owned their software if we didn't explicitly say that we were only letting them rent it." And it was so.

And michael said, "Microsoft has dropped the Office XP subscription plan , at least for the near future. Wonder if this means they were getting too much heat from IT managers, or if they have something else up their sleeve."