How To Handle A Killer Asteroid

SEWilco writes: "This Nando/AP article points out that there's a discussion under way of how to proceed when an Earth-impacting asteroid is discovered. The focus is the proposal "The Comet/Asteroid Impact Hazard: A Systems Approach" (Chapman, Durda, Gold) which has been circulating for several months. It's a summary of what is known, what is undecided, and what needs to be done to prepare. I do note that the discussion is assuming that all of the human population remains on Earth, except for the possibility of off-planet planetary defense facilities." I thought we were well-prepared for this already, thanks to the flurry of asteroid movies of a few summers ago. We send Bruce Willis, or possibly William J. Clinton, with a handpicked suicide crew equipped with drills and nukes, right?

Comments

Unfortunately, we're just at the beginning...

[trims]

...everyone likes to say "Now, for the first time in History, there exists a species on Earth that can do something about a earth-impact"

Unfortunately, that's just not true. Currently, even if we had bought the proper equipment, there is very little we could do to stop a 1km+ rock (or, esp. a comet) from coliding with the Earth. Basically, we've got the technology right now to see the hit coming, but not really do anything about it. Nukes and other missile-like interceptors aren't good enough, we don't have good enough energy weapons, and our space-flight technology isn't up to the task. So, basically, if we see something coming in the next century, we're fucked.

So if we can't stop it, can we prepare for it? Unfortunately, I'm going to have to say no to this is too. There's no way we could put away enough food and supplies to feed even 0.1% of the populance for the required decade or so after a major earth-impact. Most likely, the best we could do would be provide for 10,000 or so. And a modern Democracy simply isn't going to be able to sustain this kind of project - it would run hundreds of millions, and that's not going to fly with the voters. Sorry. And, honestly, is that money well spent? To spend perhaps billions over the years on something that has a 0.0001% of happening, or use the money to stop ozone depletion/polution/pick your favorite Earth Day project.

So, what's our best bet? Work like hell to get to the point where we can defend ourselves. The good news here is that spending on this kind of thing has all sorts of other uses, besides "impact defense". We need to spend lots on making spaceflight cheap to get orbital (and preferably Moon-based) stations going on a large scale. Faster and more practical space propulsion (ion engines? Space Sails?) Advances in energy and kinetic weapons that could allow us to pulverize a potential threat while still several AU away. Multiple large Hubble-like detectors scanning the heavens.

The point here is that realistically, there is very little we can do right now. However, given the proper schedules, funding, and willpower, we could have the defence capability by the 22nd century. And along the way, invent a whole lots of other stuff that we can really use. Think of it as the Moon Project for the 21st century.

-Erik

I have an idea

[Jailbrekr]

Declare the asteroid to be in violation of the REcording Industries Copyright, and send all the RIAA lawyers after it.

I'm sure they could litigate the asteroid out of existance.....

AOL cds?

[small_dick]

If everyone stood outside with their AOL cds, and reflected the sun toward the meteor, maybe that would burn it up before it got into the solar system.

Oh, good lord...

[wrinkledshirt]

We send Bruce Willis ... with a handpicked suicide crew equipped with drills and nukes, right?

Good god I hope not. If I have to sit through that again, I think I'll welcome the asteroid.

Re:What cracks me up is......

[pavonis]

If you airburst all of them over cities, you might kill half the people in cities on the planet, which, since about half the population of the Earth resides in cities, means that you'll kill perhaps 25% of the people on Earth as a maximum

I agree with everything else you said, but... the area a modern, 50-100 megaton H-bomb takes out is considerable. I'm posting in Philadelphia; if someone did an airburst of a major nuke in the middle of New Jersey, they'd take out Philly, New York, and all the suburbanites around; New Haven would probably be an uncomfortable place to be, too. A bomb targeted at a city is going to take out much more than just that city.

Fatalities would probably be much higher than 50% per city in the event of a global war; the complete breakdown of almost all social supports means that not only do the injured or buried have just about no chance of getting aid, but anyone in a big city is going to start getting really hungry pretty soon. Few big cities have as much as three day's food supplies or a day's water in stock; with the electricity out, bridges down, roads a mess, things on fire, water pipes wrecked, and the like, the basic tools of survival are going to get pretty rare. FEMA isn't going to be much help as they've been blown up too, so...

As for missiles working... well, the missiles have certainly been tested a lot with no payload, and they seem pretty reliable. Many are the same ones used for space launches- the Titan series, for instance- and they launch on target about 95% of the time. The bombs have been tested quite a bit on deserted islands and such. Admittedly, the bombs and the missiles haven't been tested in concert, but that seems like a pretty simple rig-up to me.

This is a job for the A-team

[Mantis69]

The A-team vs Asteroid would have provided more entertainment than Bruce and the boys. With Murdoch as pilot, Hannibal smoking his cigar in close proximity to a few thousand tons of LOX, Mr T 'I ain't flyin' in no rocket' and finally Face chatting up the attractive female scientist.

However, for the A-team scenario to work, they would need to land on the asteroid, get into a gunfight with drug dealers who live there. In the ensuing firefight they expend 5000 rounds of ammunition with no casualties, and then get captured.

The fate of the world would then rest on the fact that they villains conveniently lock up our heroes in a fully equipped workshop come asteroid-destroying-nuclear-bomb-factory. The team escape (another 500 rounds ammo: no casualties), blow up the asteroid (villains tied up in the back of the spaceship so no casualties there).

The story ends with Hannibal saying: 'I like it when a plan comes together' followed by the predictable 'Shut up fool ' from Mr T. No wait a minute I forgot, they'll also have to knock Mr T out for the return journey, I pity the fool who has to do that.

Re:OTP:Re:A real threat?

[factor-C]

Because the moon hoax is not even considered worthy of consideration by any astronomer worthy of the title.

1) In a vacuum, or near vacuum, stars cannot appear in the same picture as a high-albedo object in direct sunlight unless they are edited in later. The film would have been instantly identified as a hoax if there actually were stars in the background.

2) The flag waves because of the kinetic energy imparted to the material when the astronauts are putting it in the ground.

3) The flag is held upright by a metal rod. Using the metal rod to hold the flag up was actually a controversial issue for a while, but it was decided that a sagging American flag would look pretty sad.

4) Most importantly, you don't need the Subaru telescope to see if the flag is on the surface of the moon. The Russian government would have jumped at the chance to point out such an obvious hoax, and the Cold War ended long after telescopes powerful enough to verify (or not!) the landing site were easily available to a large government. If it were all a hoax, we would have found out a long time ago.

5) It would have been a fairly easy and straightforward task to detect the origin of the video/radio signals being broadcast. Even if the Russians didn't have decent telescopes in their posession, they would have been able to triangulate the origin of the signals, just as America verified that Sputnik was actually sending out radio signals from orbit.

Anything I missed? I didn't pay any attention to the stuff they aired on TV, and I responded to the things I keep hearing people talk about.