Posted by
michael
on from the NASA-will-fake-this-one-too dept.
nerdygeek writes "According to this article from the BBC, NASA chief Daniel Goldin has predicted there will be astronauts on Mars by 2020. We've heard things like this before, but not as strongly worded, especially when he speaks of robots and people heading for other stars."
Actually, here is a possible schedule for a good Mars mission (from rev.3 of the NASA DRM):
6 month outbound journey
~560 day stay on Mars
6 month return journey
That's damn near 3 years for either 4 or 6 astronauts (rev.1 and 2 had 6 people on the mission, but I don't remember about rev.3). Of course, if we are spending $60 billion US on this mission then they are going to be doing some science work during the outbound journey and ALL science during the stay on Mars. They won't get much chance to get bored. On the way home, they won't have a damn thing to do except relax, read, watch movies, and talk.
Russia has had cosmonauts up on Mir all alone for between 9 months and 1.5 years (I don't remember exactly, but that long by yourself has to be hard). They have also had full crews up there for long periods of time (again around 9 mos. and 1.5 years). NASA has also been putting crews into big isolated facilities with full resource recycling for 3 months at a time to simulate Mars journeys. They haven't had any mental breakdowns yet.
I totally agree that the mental aspect will be one of the toughest obstacles the crew will face, but I know that I could do it (and luckily I'll be qualified to do it in about 3 years so maybe I'll be selected for the crew, woohoo!) and others, too.
I also know that the "constant horror that a small accident means instant death every single day" won't even bother the astronauts. Think how many people skydive and extreme ski and do other dangerous sports.
The last point you brought up was about the commander being required to land them after a long mission. This isn't the case; the landing will be completely automated for that reason among other technical issues.
My senior design course was a mission to Mars so I know the feasibility of this mission. The crew survivability rate will be about 85-90% and the mission success rate is going to be about 80%. For something as momentous as this, I think these numbers are pretty good.
The biggest problem I forsee is the astronauts psycology. It'll be, basically, a 9 month trip in something a little less comfortable than a school bus:
Probably not as much room as a school bus.
And seeing the same people, in close proximity, every morning/afternoon/evening/night for the next 9 months with very little privacy.
The constant horror that a small accident means instant death every single day.
Plus the trip to Mars is long, drawn out, and boring (not exactly sure how long it'll take. Like 2-months?) then the commander will need to be completely focused to land. Mir had a cosmonaut that was up for several weeks and couldn't dock an unmanned satelite to Mir (the cause was most likely that he was just bored for so long he lost his focus)
They'll need to stock up on coffee and try not to kill themselves, or let the environment get to them. Easy task, right? I think not!
Slashdot Mirror
6 month outbound journey
~560 day stay on Mars
6 month return journey
That's damn near 3 years for either 4 or 6 astronauts (rev.1 and 2 had 6 people on the mission, but I don't remember about rev.3). Of course, if we are spending $60 billion US on this mission then they are going to be doing some science work during the outbound journey and ALL science during the stay on Mars. They won't get much chance to get bored. On the way home, they won't have a damn thing to do except relax, read, watch movies, and talk.
Russia has had cosmonauts up on Mir all alone for between 9 months and 1.5 years (I don't remember exactly, but that long by yourself has to be hard). They have also had full crews up there for long periods of time (again around 9 mos. and 1.5 years). NASA has also been putting crews into big isolated facilities with full resource recycling for 3 months at a time to simulate Mars journeys. They haven't had any mental breakdowns yet.
I totally agree that the mental aspect will be one of the toughest obstacles the crew will face, but I know that I could do it (and luckily I'll be qualified to do it in about 3 years so maybe I'll be selected for the crew, woohoo!) and others, too.
I also know that the "constant horror that a small accident means instant death every single day" won't even bother the astronauts. Think how many people skydive and extreme ski and do other dangerous sports.
The last point you brought up was about the commander being required to land them after a long mission. This isn't the case; the landing will be completely automated for that reason among other technical issues.
My senior design course was a mission to Mars so I know the feasibility of this mission. The crew survivability rate will be about 85-90% and the mission success rate is going to be about 80%. For something as momentous as this, I think these numbers are pretty good.
IANAL, but I play one on
- Probably not as much room as a school bus.
- And seeing the same people, in close proximity, every morning/afternoon/evening/night for the next 9 months with very little privacy.
- The constant horror that a small accident means instant death every single day.
- Plus the trip to Mars is long, drawn out, and boring (not exactly sure how long it'll take. Like 2-months?) then the commander will need to be completely focused to land. Mir had a cosmonaut that was up for several weeks and couldn't dock an unmanned satelite to Mir (the cause was most likely that he was just bored for so long he lost his focus)
They'll need to stock up on coffee and try not to kill themselves, or let the environment get to them. Easy task, right? I think not!Good quote, too many chars. Seriously, the slashdot 120 char limit sucks!