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Microsoft's Future

cyberkine writes: "The Economist has an interesting article on Microsoft's technology strategies that ends with a very astute comparison with IBM's downfall and resurrection in the wake of its own antitrust battles. 'Microsoft's biggest underlying fear is that it will become like IBM - --a company that still has a strong business but no longer sets computing standards.'"

15 of 486 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Crashing.... by fishbowl · · Score: 3, Informative

    There are boxes in my shop with uptimes of years.
    Mainframe admins strive for DECADES of uptime.

    --
    -fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
  2. Did Microsoft set any standards? by njdj · · Score: 2, Informative

    Has Microsoft ever actually set any computing standards? IBM did: the punched card, half-inch magnetic tape, and the entire PC architecture, among others. It was a self-confident company that wasn't afraid of competitors building products that implemented standards it had set. (I'm not suggesting it competed fairly, ethically or even legally, BTW.)

    But Microsoft? It's contributed to standards initiated by others. It's tried to detract from standards initiated by others (Java). It's currently trying to make C# and .net into standards. But I can't think of any accepted standard of which you can say, "Microsoft created that standard and gave it to the community".

    1. Re:Did Microsoft set any standards? by reflective+recursion · · Score: 2, Informative

      They produced the _model_ of selling software. Like it or not, without Microsoft a great many software developers would have been jobless. There would likely be no PC games, no Photoshop, Autocad, etc.

      You see, if Microsoft had not "forced" their computing model (OS, file names, etc.) on consumers, there would likely be no mainstream computing architechture today. I'm not saying MS was the sole cause of it (a great many people helped), but without them I doubt many people today would know how to use a computer at all. Sure, we would have Apple. I don't believe Apple would have lead to the hardware explosion and cheap PCs we have today, though. We would most likely be just now reaching 386 or possibly 486 hardware speed and features.

      Let me explain why Microsoft has created an important standard. Software developers need a common architecture to develop and deploy. It costs way too much to port an application to many systems and the payoff is very little. One example is Quake 3. id software has stated that Linux produced no profit for them. They did it because they like Linux, basically. That's good and fine, but you can't expect companies which do not have that kind of extra cash flow to go around porting to your OS of the month.

      If Microsoft was not in the right place at the right time, the market would probably be heavily fragmented. What we would have would be IBM with many operating systems and Apple with a tightly locked architecture. Commercial software would not be a viable business. Programmers would be stuck doing database grunt work with no other options.

      I believe the software industry of 1980s-90s _needed_ a OS standard (monopoly) for stability and growth. But, now I believe Sun and Java have Microsoft scared shitless. With cheap bandwidth becoming readily available, Microsoft's software standard is capable of being thrown out the window. On top of Java, things like OpenGL are making programs more portable. Once hardware development slows down (which it has) and open software interfaces to hardware (i.e. OpenGL) are available, Microsoft's standard will be useless.

      So, yes Microsoft has created a huge software standard. It is a very broad standard, but it is definately part of Microsoft's doing.

      --
      Dijkstra Considered Dead
  3. Interesting use of statistics here.. by ymgve · · Score: 3, Informative

    At first glance, the graph titled 'Redmond Blues' looks like it's showing a decline in Microsoft's earnings. However, the real numbers are quite the opposite - the graph shows how many percent increase the earnings have had since last year, and it is of cours natural for the curve to fall (since an $2.5 billion increase from $25b is only 10%, while an $2.5 billion increase from $6 is almost 60%).

    But somehow they have warped the statistics (intentionally?) to make the curves more grim.
    To their defense, it is stated clearly in the text of the article, but the subtle difference between text and graphics might be hard to spot.(Especially since it's easier to think up a conclusion from a curve than a paragraph of text)

    1. Re:Interesting use of statistics here.. by bryanbrunton · · Score: 2, Informative


      Last quarter Microsoft's earning declined from 6.5 billion to 6.1 billion. A 7% decline.

      Microsoft's earnings over the past 4 quarters have been flat. That's right MS is no longer a high growth company. They have consistently earned between 6.5 and 6.1 billion for the past 4 quarters.

      What's really neat is that Microsoft's earnings outside of the US have consistently fallen the past 4 quarters. A decline that has only been made up for by an increase in their US earnings.

  4. Re:"Microsoft is kind." by jpmorgan · · Score: 2, Informative

    After September 11th, while every other media source was running the usual watered down stories presenting simplistic views of the situation (everything from the geopolitics of the situation to any possible bioterror threat), the Economist has been consistently running articles examining the situation in depth [economist.com] and not trying to present its readers with some beautified and doctored picture of what's really going on to give people a warm fuzzy fealing inside or capitalise on the shock-value *cough*CNN*cough*.

    And you know what? It's nice having a publication which doesn't treat you like an idiot or a child. Or one which isn't 90% adverts. Or only tells you what you want to hear.

    You can bash Microsoft, but you don't bash The Economist. :)

    The Economist happens to be one of the most trusted publications around; they have a well-deserved repuation for being right. You can pretty much guarentee that any article by them is well researched and as accurate as they come.

    To be brutally frank, the kind of articles you find in the Economist [economist.com] are far beyond what you typically read on /. in terms of complexity, subtlety and breadth of vision, without the usual journalistic bias and bullsh*t you find in a lot of other places - particularly online.

    What I find most ironic about the Economist is they usually do a lot better job at picking the important (tech) stuff [economist.com] than most of the tech publications; best of all - they've usually picked it out months before it's mostly ignored by the likes of Wired.


    If more people read the Economist, the world would be a better place. :o)
  5. GPL'ed Clone of Windows NT in the Works by goingware · · Score: 4, Informative
    A nice fellow wrote me tonight to tell me about ReactOS, which aims to be a quality binary-compatible replacement for Windows NT that will runs most NT applications and drivers.

    It is still in very early development, so I wouldn't suggest you go out and run it (except for purposes of testing and debugging), but if you are looking for a worthy project to contribute to, consider this one.

    --
    -- Could you use my software consulting serv
  6. Re:Did Microsoft set any standards? Yes. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    From what I remember, IBM invented SMB, though MS contributed a lot to it shortly thereafter (would have been 1987). Also, the "goodness" of this standard is debatable.
    As for RTF -- ugly!!!
    That leaves DHCP ;-)

  7. Been there, got the t-shirt. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    Years ago I thought I knew computers. Then, in a very short period, the hardware I was accustomed to became obsolete, and the software outdated. I managed to adapt, but learnt a lesson: no platform lasts forever. Make sure that whatever knowledge you have is also relevant to the next platform.

    Many people I meet seem to think computer equals PC, and operating system equals microsoft. The Intel/Microsoft platform becoming as obsolete as, say, punched cards, does not strike them as relevant or even possible. Having used PC's all their lives, they assume PC's will be there forever. It is my personal opinion these people will be in for a shock at least once during their lifetime. They have never seen the industry shift to a new platform in their lives, and are quite unprepared for such an event.

    Yes, I started off using punched cards on a mainframe. But I have not forgotten the lesson I learnt then: no platform lasts forever. And while I use Intel/Microsoft in daily life, I try to be prepared when the next change occurs. I play a bit with non-Microsoft operating systems, and keep abreast of non-Intel processor architectures.

    Please accept whatever platform is market-dominant right now, but make sure that when change occurs - and it will occur at least once in your lifetime - you are fully prepared to move on.

  8. IBM was the "alpha-male" for a long time by richieb · · Score: 2, Informative
    Society is full of people who want to have their legacy, and want to be "men of destiny." These are people who want to be the kinds of cultural icons that live on forever. IBM thankfully didn't have too many of them at the helm. That meant that they didn't have individual egos looking for their places in the sun at the expense of the rest of the company and the world at large. In plain English, that meant that when the world changed and IBM ceased to be the alpha male, they made that transition

    IBM was the computer company from the end of WW II until the late seventies. They got a good racket^H^H^H^H^Hbussiness going with punch cards and card machines and then early computers.

    The IBM anti-trust trouble started in the sixties and the goverment finally dropped its suit in '82. Read the story of IBM and Ahmdal to see how IBM did not play nice.

    ...richie

    --
    ...richie - It is a good day to code.
  9. Re:Did Microsoft set any standards? Yes. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    The DHCP protocol specification, and the first implementation were not written by microsoft, or in cooperation with microsoft.

    As for SMB, i think that DEC Pathworks, and IBM LanManager both predate microsoft's SMB implementation.

  10. Re:Could someone smart explain this quote to me by smcv · · Score: 2, Informative

    AFAIK, it's sort of vaguely possible to run a Linux box (probably other OSs like BSD too) as a very thin client. You put a minimal OS (say, the Linux kernel, DHCP or BootP, and NFS utils) on a ROM, boot from it, and network-mount a NFS drive as the root partition. Upgrading and network troubleshooting become impossible though, and you need LAN-like connectivity to the NFS server.

    Having said that, the general-use networked computers at my college (Macs and Win2K PCs) have a full OS and basically nothing else (they use a Netware server for apps). I don't know about the Macs (there are only a couple and I haven't used them) but the PCs take longer than they should to log in and ages to get enough network connectivity to run apps (and because Windows likes running services on login rather than on boot, this happens once per user...) Once they're running and have refreshed their list of what software they can get at, they're reasonably fast.

    Personally, I much prefer installing software and knowing I have a working copy of whatever app on my hard disk...

  11. Did Microsoft set any standards? No by germinatoras · · Score: 2, Informative

    What are you talking about? Please locate any occurence of "Microsoft" in Section 5 of the below document:
    RFC1541

  12. Re:MS doesn't actually turn a profit. by mxianieri · · Score: 4, Informative

    --How so? Well, look at their taxes. They don't pay any tax on profit because they report no profit.--
    Well, checking their financial reports for the last 3 years shows they paid more than 30% of their Revenue as tax. Check the audited financial statements.

    -- How? They claim the value of stock options used to pay employees as expense. Between that and cash outlays, they are losing money, and have been for years.--
    Actually, what is claimed as a liability is the money reserved for income tax payments on exercised options. Options are considered compensation, but the amount of the compensation cannot be determined until they are exercised, therefore Microsoft has to hold money in a long term liability account to cover the expense of the exercising of options as they occur.

    --The stock market is not a source of investment for them, but primary revenue.--
    Actually, they lost money on investments this year but still have a positive Net Revenue (i.e. Profit).

    -- They are being supported by the wishful thinking of their employees, who still think the stock will resume its growth, and so are willing to accept stock options as pay.--
    Microsoft pays salaries on par with the leaders in the industry, and gives employee great benefits as well. The fact that they grant options in addition to that is even better.

  13. MS Future Visions by JohnG · · Score: 3, Informative

    I was watching TechTV during the Backstreet Boys segment of the Concert for New York and they were doing a special on MS's "House of the Future". I'm sure we've all heard Bill Gates rather (or is that downright?) stupid idea of networking a TV to a Clothes Dryer so that the TV will tell you when your clothes are done. I suppose it's too much to hear the big loud buzzer or just go back after the amount of time you set the timer for, but they now have what could be the most annoying idea ever. Apparently they want to have a microwave that has a barcode reader. You have to scan all your products and the microwave connect to the internet and automatically sets the time to cook the item. Is it just me or is that the stupidest idea ever?! Is it really that difficult to read the label and type a three digit number? Are we not supposed to eat if the network goes down?
    I for one hope MS dies long before it sets our living standards, or I might just have to move out of my house into a wigwam.