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Software "Open Monopoly"
garoush writes "The following article is at C|Net.news Software "open monopoly". In it "Sun developers Petr Hrebejk and Tim Boudreau say the economics of open-source software will break Microsoft's operating system hammerlock and replace it with a what they describe as an 'open monopoly.'"
I Personally have issues with such claims. With .NET, MS is positioning the company at "services" -- in effect MS is now gearing up to take on a new monopoly: "services" at the "consumer" level. If you agree, I don't see how "open monopoly" can break MS. After all, your average "Joe the consumer" doesn't know a thing about open source. " The submittor has an interesting point - but I think that even if John Q Public knows nothing about open source, if the services he uses are running open source, it doesn't matter.
if it is an OSS monopoly, would that not mean that the people are in total control?
If I understand what you imply by "the people", the the answer is "no". Just take a look at most (NOT ALL!!!!!) OSS projects today: while there are some notable exceptions, the developers are not interested in making "better software for the people", but "better software for themselves". I am not making a negative value judgement here; there is nothing wrong with this attitude! If you are going to write software for free in your own time, I EXPECT that you will write the software you want, with the features you want, and document it however you want, even if those things don't advance the needs of the larger user base.
But this model doesn't put "the people" in control any more than a closed source model does! In fact, while it might make the monopoly a little more transparent, it completely removes all incentive to be responsive to the "needs" of the "users" (i.e., those users who are not also active developers); in this sense, an OSS monopoly may actually be WORSE for the "the people" than a closed source monopoly is. The closed source monopoly at least has to worry about pleasing government regulators and large volume customers; OSS projects don't even have those hurdles to overcome.
Your headline, and the gist of your statement is correct, everyone (likely) is wrong. But your focus is too narrow. This chaos is not limited to the effect of the transistor.
Look back a couple hundred years to the days where cargo was shipped via sailing vessels. Then one day someone (James Watt?) designs an efficient steam engine. Someone else (Robert Fulton) figured out a way to effectively drive a ship using a steam engine. Most of the shipping companies (my great great grandfather 's company included) could not foresee the impact and benefits or this technology. As a result, his son (my great grandfather) basically put him out of business by taking advantage of the benefits of steam powered ships.
The electric motor is another good example. When they were first exhibited, they were unreliable, and room filling (remind anyone of another tech that we know and love?). Today, electric motors are effectively invisible.
History continues to show us that innovative people will realize unorthodox uses for gadgets that many think will never have a purpose. And those unorthodox uses will (overall) make our lives easier, and more pleasant to live.