Slashdot Mirror
Can Software Schedules Be Estimated?
J.P.Lewis writes "
Is programming like manufacturing, or like physics?
We sometimes hear of enormous software projects that are
canceled after running years behind schedule.
On the other hand, there are software engineering methodologies
(inspired by similar methodologies in manufacturing)
that claim (or hint at) objective estimation
of project complexity and development schedules.
With objective schedule estimates, projects should never run late.
Are these failed software projects not using proper
software engineering, or is there a deeper problem?" Read on for one man's well-argued answer, which casts doubt on most software-delivery predictions, and hits on a few of the famous latecomers.
"A recent academic paper Large Limits to Software Estimation (ACM Software Engineering Notes, 26, no.4 2001) shows how software estimation can be interpreted in algorithmic (Kolmogorov) complexity terms. An algorithmic complexity variant of mathematical (Godel) incompleteness can then easily be interpreted as showing that all claims of purely objective estimation of project complexity, development time, and programmer productivity are incorrect. Software development is like physics: there is no objective way to know how long a program will take to develop."
Lewis also provides a link to this "introduction to incompleteness (a fun subject in itself) and other background material for the paper."
The majority of Slashdot readers are students without any notable software engineering experience. Sure, not everyone here fits this description, but it's certain that there will be lots of hearsay, what-my-professor-told-me responses, and misguided personal theories based on blind idealism.
I had a feeling that most were 16-18 and clueless.
just because you've read a uml book or an article by a 'popular' author, does not mean that you have the knowledge to make comments that others could realistically use.