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Where Will Broadband's Killer App Come From?
tripletwentie asks: "Here's an interesting story from ZDnet that talks about the success and the pitfalls of the world adopting broadband, and how regular Joes like us will change the world the way we know it today. Is it really the idea that you can get any piece of music for free that will attract people to buying broadband or maybe the idea of streaming movies straight from your computer to your flat screen tv? Sure, broadband in the house will become a utility like having electricity in the house, but what will get us there? I would love to hear the thoughts and ideas of the programming world." While the article is breathy in anticipation of the promise of broadband, I think its an intersting thing to note that media companies are also in an interesting position, in the fact that certain media companies are already in control of the technology behind broadband itself. Can anyone say "potential conflicts of interest"?
I think the point of Broadband, or 56k, or any internet connection, is that there is no "killer app" to it. The point is information transfer, and FAST information transfer.
Take the car, for example. It didn't start on one huge service, like a Napster. It started because people needed transportation. The TV started because of entertainment value. The "killer app" idea isn't applicable, in my mind, to a broadband connection - instead, we have to look at it for what it was designed for - massive data transfer in a short amount of time.
All in all, the killer-app of broadband is data transfer, just like the killer-app of the car is transportation and the killer-app of the radio is listening to music. There isn't going to be one big thing. People are just going to get used to it.
The killer app is time shifting. Rather than setting a VCR/DVR to record your favorite show, or go to the movie theater at an appointed time, you can dictate exactly when to start, stop and pause your entertainment. Email is an example of this, I send you email, and my message is time-shifted to a point where it's convenient for you to respond.
The second killer app is going to be video conferencing. My relatives will all have web cams by the end of this year, and real time family conversations across state boundaries is important, especially for those with kids. But the video is crummy! USB 2.0 and faster video cameras will take us to a better picture locally, but only broadband and multicasting will take us the rest of the way. For broadband to truly work out, though, multicasting HAS to be implemented on a wider basis. It should become a requirement for IPv6 routers to deal properly with multicasting, and we need IPv6 so we can get our own IP address easily and cheaply for each device in each home.
But the real reason broadband hasn't picked up is that the consumer market cannot support the infrastructure. Nearly every major advancment that made it in the last hundred years made it because business adopted it. Business will NOT adopt broadband until it is as reliable as a T1, yet SDSL connections (which approach and pass a T1 in speed, and are often more reliable/dependable than other broadband services, not to be confused with ADSL) are as expensive as a T1 or better. Not only that, but a T1 can handle both phone and data, according to need.
Broadband is suffering right now as a consumer service, but isn't going to take off until business starts investing in its reliability and speed.
And it still bugs me that I can get 2Mb over cable modem from some web sites, but not others. My connection is fast enough, but web hosting sites need to get exponentially larger pipes for broadband to make a difference - either that or a fundamental shift has to take place in the way it works - perhaps a distributed model such as akami(sp, I know).
-Adam
My enemies hate me more than your enemies hate you. Mine put up better "why he sucks" sites.