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Cringely's 2002 Predictions

Posted by CmdrTaco on from the looking-in-the-crystal-ball dept.

An anonymous reader submitted Cringley's 2002 predictions. Nothing totally unexpected: XML will explode (hasn't it already?) and Microsoft will keep their mits in every big deal in the tech industry. Other stuff too, like the return of VCs and IPO frenzies (yawn), and that Rich Media won't quite make it yet in 2002.

5 of 159 comments (clear)

  1. Re:So you're saying by ergo98 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    However, the solution is not to remove raw sockets, it's to (a) forcibly educate the users, such as making them run through a tutorial on first- boot from a PC, or (b) lock down the system, instead of leaving it open, like MS typically does.

    The real solution is at the ISP levels: All ISPs should be mandated (at risk of being held accountable due to negligence for financial loss held by others) to filter out IP spoofing -> If someone is sending out packets from the address a.b.c.d and you know that they're z.y.x.w then shut down their connection or at lest filter the packets out. The whole idea of IP spoofing is absurd. The same holds true for any other manner of malformed packets: They should be dropped at the first router they hit.

  2. M$ hasn't turned the corner at all... by rbeattie · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I'm not sure why Cringely is focusing so much on Microsoft in 2002. I don't see them having turned any corner just yet. They've got more products, but I don't see the momentum.

    I know I read Slashdot, but still, here's my immediate future:

    • I haven't upgraded my Win2K to WinXP and probably won't. My next box may in fact be an Apple OSX machine. It's sexier and Unix.
    • My Mom and my brother (both newbies) haven't and won't upgrade to XP either because they don't have the cash or any real reason.
    • I'd choose a PS2 instead of XBox if only for the bigger library of games.
    • I still use my Palm Vx and when I upgrade in the next year, it'll probably be to a Symbian "Smartphone" or a Palm phone. No PocketPC here and no "Stinger."
    • I'm a consultant who uses Java mostly and have no use for .NET - and when I recommend solutions to clients, I stear them away from trapping themselves with a M$ solution.
    • I come from the fantastic state of California which hasn't given in to any settlement yet with Microsoft and hopefully won't until there's some real damage done.
    What more can I say - it doesn't look rosy for Micosoft at all from my vantage point. Then again, this is only my experience, but it's the only real data I have to go by... Hey, Win2K is great to use, nice and stable and my Microsoft Wheel Mouse with the infred sensor on the bottom just plain rocks. But those were yesterday's purchases. In the coming year, I can see M$ playing much less a role in my life not more.

    Just my thoughts,

    -Russ

    --
    Me
    1. Re:M$ hasn't turned the corner at all... by browser_war_pow · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I personally have found XP to be better than Win2k as a desktop, but only if you are using the cracked version of XP. If not then upgrading is simply not worth it unless you can get your hands on a recovery disk for a computer that will install on your PC.

  3. Re:So you're saying by psamuels · · Score: 3, Interesting
    MS didn't forget to secure XP, they broke the security on purpose for greater compatibility with 95/98 apps (which have no user-level security whatsoever.)

    Which has nothing to do with raw sockets. Unix allows raw sockets - if you're root. NT allows raw sockets - if you're in the administrators group. XP allows raw sockets - if you're an administrator which for the default home setup means everybody.

    I honestly don't get the people who say raw sockets are a security problem. By their arguments, everyone should be forced to use a private, proprietary network behind custom proxy servers, like AOL used to be, so they can't get out onto the raw internet and wreak havoc. Back before AOL became Yet Another ISP, it was darned difficult to launch script kiddie attacks from there against actual Internet sites....

    I would scream bloody murder if the Linux gods took raw sockets away from me. Not that they'd be stupid enough to even think about that. Nobody questions the usefulness of tcpdump, which relies on raw sockets.

    --
    "How can you claim that you are anti-crack, while still writing a window manager?" — Metacity README
  4. Re:Stealing banks' business... by squaretorus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The banks, well, two of the four I have spoken to in the past 2 months, ARE onto this one.

    And this is at local business banking manager level. They are querying the entire charging and revenue structure of online businesses, wishing to take on as many of the stages as possible in an effort to get maximum revenues by taking smaller individual commissions on each step.

    4 or 5 1.5 or 2.0% fees mounts up pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if some of them started getting in on the delivery aspects soon to offer a single stop trusted, secure, long standing vendor for handling online transactions.

    How often do you hear 'our security is as good as that used by the online banks' People trust banks. They could make a serious inroad into some of these markets from the opposite angle to MS.

    MS has the consumer computing market sown up - banks have the consumer confidence / trust sewn up.

    Which are YOU more likely to get to look after your ecommerce site? I'd go for a bank over a MS passport system every time - IF the service was up to scratch.

    Some of the UK banks are taking this massively seriously. Dont underestimate the level of change thats going to hit banking over the coming few years. And with the markets offering negative returns, the banks are finding their coffers expanding as people go for the safe option of long term high interest savings accounts. They have money to play with.