Cringely's 2002 Predictions

An anonymous reader submitted Cringley's 2002 predictions. Nothing totally unexpected: XML will explode (hasn't it already?) and Microsoft will keep their mits in every big deal in the tech industry. Other stuff too, like the return of VCs and IPO frenzies (yawn), and that Rich Media won't quite make it yet in 2002.

Comments

Re:So you're saying

[ergo98]

However, the solution is not to remove raw sockets, it's to (a) forcibly educate the users, such as making them run through a tutorial on first- boot from a PC, or (b) lock down the system, instead of leaving it open, like MS typically does.

The real solution is at the ISP levels: All ISPs should be mandated (at risk of being held accountable due to negligence for financial loss held by others) to filter out IP spoofing -> If someone is sending out packets from the address a.b.c.d and you know that they're z.y.x.w then shut down their connection or at lest filter the packets out. The whole idea of IP spoofing is absurd. The same holds true for any other manner of malformed packets: They should be dropped at the first router they hit.

M$ hasn't turned the corner at all...

[rbeattie]

I'm not sure why Cringely is focusing so much on Microsoft in 2002. I don't see them having turned any corner just yet. They've got more products, but I don't see the momentum.

I know I read Slashdot, but still, here's my immediate future:

• I haven't upgraded my Win2K to WinXP and probably won't. My next box may in fact be an Apple OSX machine. It's sexier and Unix.
• My Mom and my brother (both newbies) haven't and won't upgrade to XP either because they don't have the cash or any real reason.
• I'd choose a PS2 instead of XBox if only for the bigger library of games.
• I still use my Palm Vx and when I upgrade in the next year, it'll probably be to a Symbian "Smartphone" or a Palm phone. No PocketPC here and no "Stinger."
• I'm a consultant who uses Java mostly and have no use for .NET - and when I recommend solutions to clients, I stear them away from trapping themselves with a M$ solution.
• I come from the fantastic state of California which hasn't given in to any settlement yet with Microsoft and hopefully won't until there's some real damage done.

What more can I say - it doesn't look rosy for Micosoft at all from my vantage point. Then again, this is only my experience, but it's the only real data I have to go by... Hey, Win2K is great to use, nice and stable and my Microsoft Wheel Mouse with the infred sensor on the bottom just plain rocks. But those were yesterday's purchases. In the coming year, I can see M$ playing much less a role in my life not more.

Just my thoughts,

-Russ