ESR Says as PCs Get Cheaper, Windows Will Die

james writes "Eric Raymond reckons Windows will be obsolete because people won't be able to afford it soon." Owning the OS gives MS too great of an advantage. They'd sell the client for 5 bucks if it meant that they could still control Office, the server market, and the zillions of other markets that their OS monopoly lets them crush.

Comments

Oh lord.

[rebelcool]

More from this idiot. This is of course, assuming that microsoft has no business sense whatsoever and doesnt reduce price accordingly, or find other sources of revenue or one of a million other possibilities. Maybe if the company was ran by dumbasses. But wait, you don't get to be one of the largest in the world by being dumbasses. There goes that theory.

No, Eric, microsoft will not go away like you've claimed for several years. Linux won't win the desktop 'war'. Get over it. Nobody cares anymore.

Re:Oh lord.

[Clay Mitchell]

While ESR seems to be very zealous and into the (GNU)/Linux scene, he's it's worst enemy. While Microsoft may spread FUD, people look at this guy and "wtf is this idiot doing? what's he talking about?" if i didn't know better, i'd avoid linux for the sole reason i wouldn't want to be associated with that nut.

Re:Oh lord.

[NumberSyx]

he's it's worst enemy.

If not ESR or RMS, then who ? The Free and Open Software movement needs someone to represent them. By your standards ESR and RMS may be a little "Out There", but they say what needs to be said and aren't affraid to take a little heat for it. Have you ever heard Michael Dell speak ?, Ballmer ? or even Jobs ? They rant just the same about how their way is the best way. I would even go so far as to say Ballmer is a spaz. nobody calls them zealots and don't fool yourself, they are. The only difference is they wear $1000 suits and live in $20 million dollar houses. The question is who would be better ?

Re:Oh lord.

[Zeinfeld]

While ESR seems to be very zealous and into the (GNU)/Linux scene, he's it's worst enemy. While Microsoft may spread FUD, people look at this guy and "wtf is this idiot doing? what's he talking about?" if i didn't know better, i'd avoid linux for the sole reason i wouldn't want to be associated with that nut.

Interestingly enough the thread does not have any pro-ESR comments at this point. I think it is pretty obvious that the Linux community can interpret nuts as damage and route arround them.

In the early days of Linux the single biggest advantage Linux had was Linus who is a pretty reasonable guy.

ESR appears to be way over the edge on this one. First off he does not appear to know that OEMs already get Windows at deep discounts over the retail price. Microsoft does not have to provide packaging, retail discount, activation or first level support for those customers so the cost is probably more like $35 for XP Home.

ESR also appears to overlook that Microsoft has aggressively sold its own sub $350 PC, it is called an XBox and they sell them at Toys-R-Us. Equally Microsoft has not let price bar it from the Pocket PC market.

The other reason that ESR is wrong is that the lowest price PCs are typically sold as starter PCs for first time buyers. This is a market that requires the ability to run genuine Microsoft Word. Tomb Raider and AOL. Linux users buying this type of machine are typically buying a second, third or fourth machine to use as a cheap server.

Finally, anyone who has tried to get Linux up on a cheapie PC will know that it is far from simple. The parts used by cheapie PCs are often sourced from obscure vendors and finding a Linux driver often means writing your own. The people who make such machines are typically doing so on a shoestring and cannot afford the cost of development or the delay incurred. In many cases the whole profit on the low cost PC is made by buying parts on 90 days credit, making the machine in 15 days, charging the wholesalers on delivery and making the profit on 75 days worth of interest.

Amazing logic.

[TheConfusedOne]

News flash: Product fails because no one's buying it.

Anyways, PC's are a LUXURY, not a necessity. You can either afford the box or you can't. Plus, how much of that cost is actually Windows? No one knows, no one's talking.

The average consumer thinks Windows is "included" with their PC purchase. That means that in their mind it's free, not a major portion of the actual cost. As long as that price is hidden it won't be a factor in a purchasing decision.

The single best thing we could get out of an MS settlement (since we're not going to get the break-up that they deserve) would be to require all PC sales adds to prominently display the cost of Windows and the percentage of total cost that it represents. That would certainly open a few eyes.

But wait, I thought NT 5.0 was supposed to be DOA?

[max cohen]

Didn't he also say NT 5.0 would be DOA because of it's bloat and tardiness? I really wish ESR would stop making so many "predictions." It'd be a good move for his reputation and everyone else in the OSS community that feels the effects of the blanket associations with his comments.

Good point.....but theres a flaw in the logic

[CDWert]

This is a good point, I must admit I never though directly about this as a consequence of the reduction in PC costs, BUT theres a flaw in the Logic, software has ALWAYS cost more (since the late 70's) than the hardware itself, it may cause a shift, but certainly not the demise of MS.

MS would sell..hell give copies of Windows away if it meant they could continue their other markets, Less than 1/3 of MS income comes from desktop operating systems. Now that said they dont want to loose it but certainly it wont kill them.

So Microsoft is not a monpoly, then, ESR?

[clearcache]

Exactly. In fact, by making the claim that Microsoft can not lower their prices and survive, ESR is making the argument that Microsoft is not a monopoly.

The classic definition of monopoly power is that a company has the power to price above marginal cost - or the cost of producing an additional unit. While we know that real life is a little more complex than this classic definiton, by making the argument that M$ will crumble if forced to lower their prices, ESR is actually saying that Microsoft is not a monopoly...that the current pricing scheme used by M$ is driven by the market.

In one statement, ESR just poked a hole in his own argument without even realizing it. Nice job!

Maybe Linux doesn't need a spokes person

[JohnDenver]

The whole problem with ESR and RMS is they're preaching a religion when all we want are tools and options to get our jobs done. People don't liked to be preached too, they just want thier options. It doesn't matter if you're right and you have the insight of King Solomon, people still don't want to hear you preach.

Now, If you can explain the *REAL* benefits of a *SPECIFIC* Open Source tool, or *SPECIFICALLY* how the open source model may benefit those involved (Benefitting usually implies the bottom line somewhere), THEN you will get people listening to you.

Look at the evidence:

The IBM PC clone didn't need a spokesperson, it's value being a commodity tool available from hundred and thousands of manfacturers spoke for itself.

As did the birth of Internet's commercialization (Not the .COM bubble. (1993-1997)): Cheap communications medium offered by vast range of carriers (ISPs)

These products worked because:
1. They were cheap
2. They were valuable
3. They provided business opportunities for people to sell cheap and valuable products.

If you want Open Source to really take off, forget about a spokes person. Meet these three criteria, and Open Source will speak for itself.

Re:He's got a great track record....

[smagruder]

Hint to the slash maintainers. How about including years in article dates.

Yup. This is a no-brainer bug that has gone unfixed for years now. I even reported this as a bug and it was closed for no apparent reason.

What's with not including years in article dates???