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ESR Says as PCs Get Cheaper, Windows Will Die

Posted by CmdrTaco on from the another-elegant-oversimplification dept.

james writes "Eric Raymond reckons Windows will be obsolete because people won't be able to afford it soon." Owning the OS gives MS too great of an advantage. They'd sell the client for 5 bucks if it meant that they could still control Office, the server market, and the zillions of other markets that their OS monopoly lets them crush.

15 of 648 comments (clear)

  1. Oh lord. by rebelcool · · Score: 5, Insightful
    More from this idiot. This is of course, assuming that microsoft has no business sense whatsoever and doesnt reduce price accordingly, or find other sources of revenue or one of a million other possibilities. Maybe if the company was ran by dumbasses. But wait, you don't get to be one of the largest in the world by being dumbasses. There goes that theory.

    No, Eric, microsoft will not go away like you've claimed for several years. Linux won't win the desktop 'war'. Get over it. Nobody cares anymore.

    --

    -

    1. Re:Oh lord. by Clay+Mitchell · · Score: 5, Insightful

      While ESR seems to be very zealous and into the (GNU)/Linux scene, he's it's worst enemy. While Microsoft may spread FUD, people look at this guy and "wtf is this idiot doing? what's he talking about?" if i didn't know better, i'd avoid linux for the sole reason i wouldn't want to be associated with that nut.

    2. Re:Oh lord. by NumberSyx · · Score: 5, Insightful

      he's it's worst enemy.

      If not ESR or RMS, then who ? The Free and Open Software movement needs someone to represent them. By your standards ESR and RMS may be a little "Out There", but they say what needs to be said and aren't affraid to take a little heat for it. Have you ever heard Michael Dell speak ?, Ballmer ? or even Jobs ? They rant just the same about how their way is the best way. I would even go so far as to say Ballmer is a spaz. nobody calls them zealots and don't fool yourself, they are. The only difference is they wear $1000 suits and live in $20 million dollar houses. The question is who would be better ?

      --

      "Our products just aren't engineered for security,"
      -Brian Valentine,VP in charge of MS Windows Development

    3. Re:Oh lord. by Zeinfeld · · Score: 5, Insightful
      While ESR seems to be very zealous and into the (GNU)/Linux scene, he's it's worst enemy. While Microsoft may spread FUD, people look at this guy and "wtf is this idiot doing? what's he talking about?" if i didn't know better, i'd avoid linux for the sole reason i wouldn't want to be associated with that nut.

      Interestingly enough the thread does not have any pro-ESR comments at this point. I think it is pretty obvious that the Linux community can interpret nuts as damage and route arround them.

      In the early days of Linux the single biggest advantage Linux had was Linus who is a pretty reasonable guy.

      ESR appears to be way over the edge on this one. First off he does not appear to know that OEMs already get Windows at deep discounts over the retail price. Microsoft does not have to provide packaging, retail discount, activation or first level support for those customers so the cost is probably more like $35 for XP Home.

      ESR also appears to overlook that Microsoft has aggressively sold its own sub $350 PC, it is called an XBox and they sell them at Toys-R-Us. Equally Microsoft has not let price bar it from the Pocket PC market.

      The other reason that ESR is wrong is that the lowest price PCs are typically sold as starter PCs for first time buyers. This is a market that requires the ability to run genuine Microsoft Word. Tomb Raider and AOL. Linux users buying this type of machine are typically buying a second, third or fourth machine to use as a cheap server.

      Finally, anyone who has tried to get Linux up on a cheapie PC will know that it is far from simple. The parts used by cheapie PCs are often sourced from obscure vendors and finding a Linux driver often means writing your own. The people who make such machines are typically doing so on a shoestring and cannot afford the cost of development or the delay incurred. In many cases the whole profit on the low cost PC is made by buying parts on 90 days credit, making the machine in 15 days, charging the wholesalers on delivery and making the profit on 75 days worth of interest.

      --
      Looking for an Information Security student project suggestion?
      Try http://dotcrimeManifesto.com/
    4. Re:Oh lord. by Tackhead · · Score: 5, Funny
      > I would even go so far as to say Ballmer is a spaz.

      "so far"?

      After seeing "monkey boy" and "developers", I suppose one might also go so far as to describe the Grand Canyon as a ditch.

  2. Amazing logic. by TheConfusedOne · · Score: 5, Insightful

    News flash: Product fails because no one's buying it.

    Anyways, PC's are a LUXURY, not a necessity. You can either afford the box or you can't. Plus, how much of that cost is actually Windows? No one knows, no one's talking.

    The average consumer thinks Windows is "included" with their PC purchase. That means that in their mind it's free, not a major portion of the actual cost. As long as that price is hidden it won't be a factor in a purchasing decision.

    The single best thing we could get out of an MS settlement (since we're not going to get the break-up that they deserve) would be to require all PC sales adds to prominently display the cost of Windows and the percentage of total cost that it represents. That would certainly open a few eyes.

    --
    --- I wish I could hear the soundtrack to my life. That way I'd know when to duck.
  3. ./, please post *more* idiotic ZDnet editorials by lukeduff · · Score: 5, Funny

    ZDnet's infalliable crystal ball has never lead us wrong.

  4. Price point is not the only factor. by 2Flower · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Okay, so the idea here is that once PCs drop to a certain level of cost, the idea of paying Microsoft a huge sum goes out the window. Two problems. One, which has already been noted here, is that Microsoft can just lower their own prices.

    But two, and most importantly: What ELSE are you going to install on that computer if not Windows? Linux? Then we get into the 'is Linux ready for the desktop' thing. It doesn't matter if Microsoft charges your first born son, if they're the only viable, usable OS available for Joe Q. User to check their e-mail and read the web with, they'll still get payment even with ultra-cheap computers.

    Of course, if some OS steps up to the plate to replace them for free/cheap AND the PCs drop in cost, then we've got something. Perhaps OEMs will start developing their own user-friendly, stripped down blends of Linux to ship with new PCs?

  5. Old News by mosch · · Score: 5, Funny

    Wow, this is shocking. First ESR claims that Microsoft is doomed. What's next, RMS claiming that the GPL is the One True License, or JWZ saying that Netscape sucks now?

  6. Open Letter to Linus Torvaldez by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny
    This is an open letter to Spanish Linux creator Linus Torvaldez. I really hope that these few criticisms are addressed soon.

    Dear Linus,

    I have always felt that Linux is a nice operating system (for hobbyists and geeks), but there are some areas where it is seriously lacking, especially when compared to its main competitor, Microsoft Windows.

    • File sharing. Windows has long been superior when it comes to making large amounts of files available to third parties. Even early versions of Windows automatically detected and made available all directories thanks to the built in NetBIOS-powered file sharing support. But Microsoft has realized that this technology is inherently limited and has added even better file sharing support to its Windows XP operating system. "Universal Plug an Play" will make it possible to literally access any file, from any device! I think universal file sharing support needs to be built into the Linux kernel soon.
    • Intelligent agents. With innovations like Clippy, the talking paperclip and Microsoft Bob, Microsoft has always tried to make life easier for its customers. With Outlook and Outlook Express, Microsoft has built a framework for developers to create even smarter agents. Especially popular agents include "Sircam", which automatically asks the users' friends for advice on files he is working on and the "Hybris" agent, which is a self-replicating copy of a humorous take on "Snow-White and the Seven Dwarves" (the real story!). Microsoft is working on expanding this P2P technology to its web servers. This project is still in the beta stage, thus the name "Code Red". The next versions will be called "Code Yellow" and "Code Green".
    • Version numbers. Linux has real naming problems. What's the difference between a 2.4.19 and a 2.2.17 kernel anyway? And what's with those odd and even numbers? Microsoft has always had clear and sophisticated naming/versioning policies. For example, Windows 95 was named Windows 95 because it was released in 1995. Windows 98 was released three years later, and so on. Windows XP brought a whole new "experience" to the user, therefore the name. I suggest that the next Linux kernel releases be called Linux 03, Linux 04, Linux 04.5 (OSR1), Linux 04.7B (OSR2 SP4 OEM), Linux 2005 and Linux VD (Valentine's Day edition). Furthermore, remember how Microsoft named every upcoming version of Windows after some Egyptian city? Cairo, Chicago and so on. I think that the development kernels should be named after Spanish cities to celebrate Linux' Spanish origins. Linux Milano or Linux Rome anyone?
    • Multi-User Support. This has always been one of Microsoft's strong sides, especially in the Windows 95/98 variants, where passwords were completely unnecessary. Microsoft has made the right decision by not bothering the user with a distinction between "normal" and "root" users too much -- practice has shown that average users can be trusted to act responsibly and in full awareness of the potential consequences of their actions. After all, if your operating system doesn't trust you, why should you trust it? (To be fair, Linux is making some progress here with the Lindows distribution, where users are always running as root.)

      With Windows XP, Microsoft has again improved multi-user support. Not only does Windows XP come with a large library of user pictures that are displayed on the login screen, such as a guitar and a flower, it also has "quick user change". This makes it possible to login as a different user with a simple keyboard shortcut, and the good news is: programs from the old user keep running in the background! Beat that, Linux!

    • Programmability. Microsoft has always been known for making computer machine power accessible to end users. The operating system comes with many helpful tools such as VBScript, a programming language especially useful for developing intelligent agents as mentioned above, and QBASIC, a truly innovative "hacker" tool that makes it possible to develop even sophisticated applications without much foreknowledge. Scripts can even be embedded into documents such as Word files. This together with the mind-blowing Windows XP shell, which now also has amazing features like "autocompletion" (you no longer have to type all those long paths) and a scrollback buffer, makes Windows XP the "hacker's choice". Linux should stop "dumbing down" users with pretty pictures such as in KDE or GNOME. Also, I think that a BASIC interpreter should be an unremovable component of the Linux kernel.

    I also find it disappointing that Linux has not embraced new technologies such as Digital Rights Management which will finally make it profitable for artists to sell their intellectual property on the web. The content industry has calculated that it loses about 450 trillion dollars per day to piracy. If this continues, the economic effects will be devastating. Richard Stallman has supported DRM for years and made it a fixed part of his GNU/Hurd operating system -- Linux should not hold back progress in this important area. DRM should be made part of the Linux Standard Base (LSB), and Linux distributors should put "DMCA-Compliant" buttons on their websites. We all know that Linux would never have been created without strong intellectual property protection as enforced by the FSF, so let's not be hypocritical.

    On the plus side, I have found Linux an absolutely superior operating system for viewing pornography. Porn is loading much faster than on Windows, especially with the Cox and Love kernel patches and powerful porn browsers such as Pornzilla. This is truly an operating system written by geeks, for geeks!

    Sincerely,

    Bruce.

  7. But wait, I thought NT 5.0 was supposed to be DOA? by max+cohen · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Didn't he also say NT 5.0 would be DOA because of it's bloat and tardiness? I really wish ESR would stop making so many "predictions." It'd be a good move for his reputation and everyone else in the OSS community that feels the effects of the blanket associations with his comments.

  8. Good point.....but theres a flaw in the logic by CDWert · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This is a good point, I must admit I never though directly about this as a consequence of the reduction in PC costs, BUT theres a flaw in the Logic, software has ALWAYS cost more (since the late 70's) than the hardware itself, it may cause a shift, but certainly not the demise of MS.

    MS would sell..hell give copies of Windows away if it meant they could continue their other markets, Less than 1/3 of MS income comes from desktop operating systems. Now that said they dont want to loose it but certainly it wont kill them.

    --
    Sig went tro...aahemmm.....fishing........
  9. He's got a great track record.... by JohnTheFisherman · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Like this little gem. Conspicuously absent link from the story, don't you think? ESR prediction story on /., clearly topical.

    --
    +5:offtopic,but anti-American
    1. Re:He's got a great track record.... by smagruder · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Hint to the slash maintainers. How about including years in article dates.


      Yup. This is a no-brainer bug that has gone unfixed for years now. I even reported this as a bug and it was closed for no apparent reason.

      What's with not including years in article dates???

      --
      Steve Magruder, Metro Foodist
  10. Maybe Linux doesn't need a spokes person by JohnDenver · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The whole problem with ESR and RMS is they're preaching a religion when all we want are tools and options to get our jobs done. People don't liked to be preached too, they just want thier options. It doesn't matter if you're right and you have the insight of King Solomon, people still don't want to hear you preach.

    Now, If you can explain the *REAL* benefits of a *SPECIFIC* Open Source tool, or *SPECIFICALLY* how the open source model may benefit those involved (Benefitting usually implies the bottom line somewhere), THEN you will get people listening to you.

    Look at the evidence:

    The IBM PC clone didn't need a spokesperson, it's value being a commodity tool available from hundred and thousands of manfacturers spoke for itself.

    As did the birth of Internet's commercialization (Not the .COM bubble. (1993-1997)): Cheap communications medium offered by vast range of carriers (ISPs)

    These products worked because:
    1. They were cheap
    2. They were valuable
    3. They provided business opportunities for people to sell cheap and valuable products.

    If you want Open Source to really take off, forget about a spokes person. Meet these three criteria, and Open Source will speak for itself.

    --
    "Communism is like having one [local] phone company " - Lenny Bruce