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China Launches Third Unmanned Space Capsule

Guppy06 writes: "As you read this China's third unmanned (except for a dummy) Shenzhou capsule is whizzing over your head. It was launched around 1400 UTC on one of China's newer Long March II F boosters. There's an article at CNN. As per usual, our good friends at NORAD have all the details of its orbit available here, but after last September you need to register to get it..."

82 of 314 comments (clear)

  1. Cool by Daveman692 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think it is good another country is in space. It is a vast frontier that if we want to explore we need to work togeather, globally. The ISS is a start but we need to get many more countries to have space programs. It is a world effort to do anything up there and it is somewhere worth exploring.

    1. Re:Cool by Waffle+Iron · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Hopefully this will get America's NASA more funding to be competitive.

      Face it, the only reason for a country to do manned space flight is to prove to the world that it has the expertise to deploy a credible ICBM force. The US and Soviet union did this decades ago. We both proved our points and now both manned space programs drift aimlessly with no purpose.

      Now it's China's turn to fly some astronauts so we will ph34r their 1337 missile skillz. I expect that they will use the US antimissile project as an excuse to seriously increase their ICBM force above the current token levels, so this manned space program fits in nicely.

      That doesn't mean that we need to blow even more money sending our people on months-long trips round and round the globe. We should use all of NASA's current budget to send much more frequent and capable unmanned missions to other planets.

    2. Re:Cool by Guppy06 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      "Face it, the only reason for a country to do manned space flight is to prove to the world that it has the expertise to deploy a credible ICBM force."

      No, this is the 21st century. Ballistic flight paths are far easier (both in terms of horsepower and mathematics) than figuring out how to both orbit and deorbit something. Compare the Minuteman III to the Titan IV or even the old Atlas boosters some time. Being able to put a person into space tells others not that you have a credible ICBM force but that you're a credible competitor in the lucrative satellite launch market.

      Pyongyang sending ballistic missile tests arcing over Japan is an example of nuclear saber-rattling. Dehli putting something into geosynchronus orbit is a commercial for Indian spaceflight. The PRC looking to put a person in orbit is an example of the second (while missile drills on the coast of the Straits of Taiwan are the first).

      Besides, China really doesn't have a credible ICBM force. MRBMs, yes, but they only have a dozen or two nuclear missiles that could reach California, and even that's a stretch. And their submarine force could be found with a Geiger counter. The PRC would be hard pressed to match the ICBM force of France or the UK, let alone those of Russia or the US...

      "Now it's China's turn to fly some astronauts so we will ph34r their 1337 missile skillz."

      That's the LAST thing they want to say with their manned space program. The PRC is well aware that the People's Army is no match for even the forces of Taiwan. The reason Beijing is so interested in playing little diplomatic games like releasing reports on US human rights abuses and crying out against US hegemony is because that's the only option open to them for competing against the US.

      "I expect that they will use the US antimissile project as an excuse to seriously increase their ICBM force above the current token levels,"

      They have two mutually-exclusive choices:

      1.) Develop ICBM technology to try to engage in a nuclear arms race they lost 40 years before they started.

      2.) Democratize and develop their economy.

      Beijing can't afford both. Option 2 potentially gives them the ability to try out option 1 (why they would I have no idea) a few decades down the line, but option 1 gives you a civil war within a decade as the people become more and more dissatisfied with their pathetic economy.

      "so this manned space program fits in nicely."

      If anything, the manned space program fits in nicely with option 2 above. It's something shiney to distract the Chinese people and give them a sense of hope for the Middle Kingdom's place in the world as their unemployment figures continue to rise (as they have been doing for the past year or so) as the economy shifts towards capitalism.

      "We should use all of NASA's current budget to send much more frequent and capable unmanned missions to other planets."

      Um... if we don't spend money on manned spaceflight now, when do we? The major goal of all interplanetary exploration is to look for new real estate.

  2. Launched another capsule... by RasputinAXP · · Score: 3, Funny

    The only problem is that after the first capsule, they were hungry again after an hour.

  3. Whoosh! by CaptainCarrot · · Score: 4, Funny
    As you read this China's third unmanned (except for a dummy) Shenzhou capsule is whizzing over your head.

    DUCK!!!

    --
    And the brethren went away edified.
    1. Re:Whoosh! by leviramsey · · Score: 3, Funny
      DUCK!!!

      Peking?

      Sorry, I had to say it...

  4. This would be more exciting by Kasmiur · · Score: 2, Funny

    If they had launched a N'sync member instead. Who cares if it lacks the tech to keep him safe. It would relieve us of a Nsuck member.

    I can see it now.

    PAy 20mil to goto spacestation but get to ride in china's one for free. Hopefully the boybands are too dumb to realize they are unmanned and they would be cargo without life support.

    --
    -THIS SPACE FOR RENT!
  5. China Launches Third Unmanned Space Capsule by Seehund · · Score: 5, Funny

    At whom?

    --
    Help savingAmigaOS and a free PowerPC market
  6. Images from today's launch by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    SpaceRef has images from China television on today's launch.

  7. The real question is: by Mr+Teddy+Bear · · Score: 5, Funny

    Does the side of the pod say "China" (like we (americans) have USA) or does it say "Made in China" like everything else in the USA?

    This should be great for mass production of space fairing ships. Tourist travel here we come!

    1. Re:The real question is: by jsse · · Score: 3, Informative

      Does the side of the pod say "China" (like we (americans) have USA) or does it say "Made in China" like everything else in the USA?

      Checked. It's "People Republic of China", no made in China. Well, actually, not much things in China has labeled with their origin, in case you don't know.

  8. US Space Program by milkmandan9 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    So what exactly does this mean for the US space program? This country has never been the type to sit around on its laurels when someone else is venturing into new, uncharted territory.

    Granted, it's not like China is going to be the first to land on the moon, but what if they get to the point where they're developing a moon colony or sending up as many reuseable spacecraft as we are? Is the US finally going to start shoveling money back into the space program?

    1. Re:US Space Program by Faux_Pseudo · · Score: 2

      Its not about the moon.
      How many of use here at /. want NASA/gov to get off their butts and go to MARS. Thats right people. If China even breaths one word about wanting to go to Mars we will have a new space race. The USA will not stand idely by while China begins to make the Red Planet ... well The RED Planet.

    2. Re:US Space Program by daeley · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The argument could be made that a recession is exactly the time to do such a thing, as it would be an economic stimulus if planned correctly.

      --
      I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate.
    3. Re:US Space Program by GMontag · · Score: 2

      The argument could be made that a recession is exactly the time to do such a thing, as it would be an economic stimulus if planned correctly.

      Yea, too bad we are not in a recession now.

  9. China's had spaceflight since the 1970s by gadfium · · Score: 5, Informative

    This is the third launch of this series of spacecraft, not China's third launch. The "Shenzhou" craft started in 1999, but China first launched a satellite in 1970 and has launched dozens to date.

    1. Re:China's had spaceflight since the 1970s by child_of_mercy · · Score: 2

      It's a launch of a manned space capsule, not a satellite

      in theory they could have put a real person in there.

      Chinese want to be the third nation to put people into space, taking what they see as their palce as equals with russia and the USA.

      But I'm sure they've got their sights on No.1

      --
      'There is a Light that never goes out.'
    2. Re:China's had spaceflight since the 1970s by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      of course they have their sights set on being no. 1. They think that Han chinese are the culmination of evolution and that everything outside the middle kingdom is the wasteland of barbarians. I've spoken with Chinese (in China) who sheepishly told me that Chinese were superior human beings. They already think they're number 1, but i'm sure they want to assume their proper place as soon as possible.

    3. Re:China's had spaceflight since the 1970s by child_of_mercy · · Score: 2

      Countries and peoples do not get to to be Superpowers without a sense of manifest destiny.

      --
      'There is a Light that never goes out.'
    4. Re:China's had spaceflight since the 1970s by Hard_Code · · Score: 2

      Holy shit. Thank you.

      Recently that manifest destiny is embodied in an absolutist definition of Progress. So instead of conquering the West, we now "conquer" the frontier of science, coming up with solutions for problems we never had in the first place, which in turn cause more problems which are handily solved by the next series of inventions....

      There once was a lady who swallowed a fly...

      --

      It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
  10. You can find more information at their website... by I+Want+GNU! · · Score: 2, Funny

    ...the password there is ".seineew era snaciremA tsilatipaC"

  11. OIG Registration by Tom+Rothamel · · Score: 2, Informative

    Of course, one had to register before last September to get orbital elements from nasa. So, it's a bit misleading to claim that september had anything to do with it. This is a relatively September-agnostic sort of thing, which IIRC was implemented to keep people from hammering the servers.

  12. It means we better get going on SDI. by glrotate · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Because Bill Clinton gave Loral (large campaign donner) Washington Post Story permission to sell this technology to our good friends the Chinese, they'll soon be able to deliver highly enriched Uranium right to your doorstep! The Democrats and Europeans think that playing defense is unsportsmanlike and that a shield is unnecessary. Thankfully Bush,Rumsfeld et al think differently and were are moving ahead on the project.

    1. Re:It means we better get going on SDI. by nadador · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Speaking of ballistic missile defense:

      Last week the US scored its third straight hit-to-kill intercept, this one discriminating amongst a group of decoys.

      We've been sending a lot of money on missile defense. We're starting to see the fruits of that labor. I just think its funny that when people were debating feasibility, its the biggest news of the day. But when the engineers start to make it work, it doesn't even make the evening news.

      --

      Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside a dog, its too dark to read.
    2. Re:It means we better get going on SDI. by Yokaze · · Score: 2
      Now, if they just could convince China to equip their rockets with C-band transponders, too, this would be a tremendious step forward. (Of course, it is still a technical achievement, just not such a great one as Lockhead it wants to be.)

      Maybe have a look at a (probably little outdated) article by Bob Harris.
      Especially the quote from the "Interagency Intelligence Assessment of Possible Soviet Responses to the US Strategic Defense Initiative" report (1983) about the feasibility of SDI (now BMD) is worth noticing.

      To preempt a 9/11 statement, the report of the National Intelligence Council "Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015" considers "non-missle delivery options" more likely.

      To quote Mr. Harris interpretation of the report:

      Think about it: pretend you're a crazed dictator hell-bent to wipe out Pittsburgh. (Nothing personal, guys. Actually, there are people in Pittsburgh I love very much. Just making a point.) Are you gonna spend all your cash on a big-ass missile system that takes years to develop -- thereby all but guaranteeing satellite detection and a pre-emptive attack from the U.S. -- and which in any case leaves your fingerprints all over the attack, guaranteeing your subsequent annihilation? Or are you gonna just have a few guys smuggle the bomb parts into Canada, drive it over at Niagara Falls in the back of a VW minibus, and then simply pull the trigger on Three Rivers Stadium?

      (The stadium, by the way, can go, as far as I'm concerned.)

      --
      "Between strong and weak, between rich and poor [...], it is freedom which oppresses and the law which sets free"
    3. Re:It means we better get going on SDI. by connorbd · · Score: 2

      *ahem* Rigged demo?

      If you stop listening to the military and think about it a moment, you'd realize that you'd need

      a) intelligent (as in near-sentient) discriminator systems
      b) long-range sensor technology (like, for example, a geiger counter that works from ten klicks away)
      c) an enemy that plays along by making warheads look like warheads

      Missile defense is a boondoggle. There hasn't been one test yet that convinced me otherwise, and there won't be until we arrange for another country to shoot dummy warheads at us to give as close to a real world test as can be managed without killing anybody (as if anyone would bother shooting a missile in these days of suitcase bombs).

      /brian

  13. No further information... by sharkey · · Score: 4, Funny

    ...has been forthcoming as to the identity of the dummy, but the Computing and Business worlds have their fingers crossed that it is Bernard Shifman.

    --

    --
    "Outlook not so good." That magic 8-ball knows everything! I'll ask about Exchange Server next.
  14. Chinese could do it right by bogasity · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The Chinese should pay attention to the failures of the American and Russian manned space programs. Strict government control of access to space results in the loss of public interest and ultimately the reduction of the program to tasks that have been done over and over before. If the public knows that they will never have the chance to go themselves they will not support the program over other national priorities; even national pride only lasts for so long. If the Chinese were smart, they'd design their space program to be self-sustaining using the dollars of Western passengers right from the start. The line of people hoping to fly on the October Soyuz mission to ISS keeps growing; send some of them up. Design for a large number of paying passengers right from the start; create the volume market.

    1. Re:Chinese could do it right by viking099 · · Score: 2

      you're assuming that the Chinese public cares about this, and even if they did, that the Chinese government would care that the Chinese people cared.
      I really can't see the Chinese government being swayed by public opinion unless it's some kind of revolution.
      So no, I think the Chinese government will probably keep on doing what they're doing, and really, space programs of today have more important things to do than cart rich Yanks around the globe a few times.
      Don't make the mistake that the Chinese are capitalist, or can be judged using a capitalist mindset. They're motivations are probably very different (and yet so similar) to our government's motivations.

  15. Eventually it is not going to matter. by RobertFisher · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This is just an additional development showing China's growing strength. It's economy, based on PPP (purchasing power product, like GNP, but based on equivalent purchasing power instead of relying upon monetary conversions, as GNP does, is the second largest in the world (right behind the US -- 1996 estimate $4,047 billion international dollars, whereas the US had about $6,000 billion international dollars), and is growing much more rapidly than the US PPP -- about 8% a year. In not too long, China will surpass the US as the largest economy on the planet. And it still has a long ways to grow and improve. Eventually it will dwarf the US economy.

    What then? China is destined to become the world's largest economy. We simply won't be able to compete in a full-out space race, on a dollar-per-dollar basis. As I see it, there are several possibilities. One is that we will focus our research efforts, much like some European nations have done, in order to excel. (Gran Sasso in Italy, for instance, is a leading high energy detector chamber for high-energy cosmic rays.) Or perhaps we will still manage to shine, simply because we attract better talent from around the world, and do better work with the limited resources available to us. Another possibility is that the US will forge closer ties with other nations -- in North America, Europe, and elsewhere, so that our economy will be able to compete with those of China, India, and Russia, once those nations get their acts together. Lastly, we may indeed be relegated to second (or lower) place on the world's stage, in space and other fields.

    You take your pick.

    Bob

    --
    Science, like Nature, must also be tamed, with a view turned towards its preservation.
    1. Re:Eventually it is not going to matter. by mpe · · Score: 2

      That's the problem with productive, increasingly wealthy nations... They have a tendency to demand more and more of what they earn as the price of growth. Maybe China will be able to continue to treat their people like the citizens of a third world country while requiring them to power a first world economy.

      Wouldn't it make more sense for mainland China to attempt to copy Taiwan and Hong Kong?

    2. Re:Eventually it is not going to matter. by mpe · · Score: 2

      By the way, the idea "that the US will forge closer ties with other nations" is fanciful; the US has gone so far out of its way to piss off every other nation on earth with its arrogance since the end of the Cold War that it can expect little help when it becomes just another one of the pack. What goes around comes around...

      Couple of mistakes here.
      1) This didn't start with the end of the cold war. Simply that without the cold war people started to notice that the US couldn't be "opposing the spread of communism" through their foreign policy.
      2) They havn't quite managed to "piss off every other nation" (yet). The US can still rely on military help from the UK and Canadian governments (even if the people and the odd government minister think it's a bad idea.) Also Israel and the US will often stand together...

    3. Re:Eventually it is not going to matter. by Hard_Code · · Score: 2

      "Lastly, we may indeed be relegated to second (or lower) place on the world's stage, in space and other fields."

      Holy shit! You mean we'll be *like everybody else*, and *depend on others*? I wonder if our egos can handle it...

      I'm not kidding...

      --

      It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
    4. Re:Eventually it is not going to matter. by Guppy06 · · Score: 2

      "This is just an additional development showing China's growing strength."

      Economically? Perhaps. But keep in mind that we now live in a world where even India can launch geosynchronus satellites.

      Militarily? HELL no. The People's Army is a joke and will continue to be so for the forseeable future (read "the 21st Century"). Non-Western cultures have historically had great difficulty adapting to both Western military doctrine and Western military technology (Japan is a bit of the exception that proves the rule). Their class structure (political, cultural or economic differences) is just too rigid. Combine that with the regime's historic fear of the military (officers are promoted based on loyalty more than military prowess) and you end up with a China that is lucky to have the title "regional power."

      "It's economy... is the second largest in the world"

      But its economy is based on manufacturing and industry, goods instead of services. China's economy relies on being able to find someone with enough money to buy their manufactured goods. The Chinese people can't do that now and won't be able to do that for a long time. If you want to find a large number of people who have the money to afford these goods, you're pretty much stuck with selling mostly to the US. The Chinese economy relies much more on the US economy than vice versa.

      China has supplanted Japan as the #2 economy in the world. When the Japanese economy took a nose dive about a decade ago, east Asian markets suffered as well as a result. When the US economy sunk recently, the whole world felt the impact.

      "We simply won't be able to compete in a full-out space race, on a dollar-per-dollar basis."

      Yes, we will, and quite easily at that. The Shenzhou capsule and the Long March II F that launched it are based on the Soviet Soyuz capsule and Vostok booster. 1960's technology. Even with the help of Rosaviakosmos, it will take a lot of time and a lot of money for China to play catch-up with our spaceflight infrastructure, all the while we'll be advancing ours even further. The US has a 40 year head start.

      And on top of that don't forget that we have the added advantage of having a Western culture to use these technologies.

      "Another possibility is that the US will forge closer ties with other nations -- in North America, Europe, and elsewhere, so that our economy will be able to compete with those of China, India, and Russia,"

      Again: A manufacturing-based economy neeeds a services-based economy in order to survive. If you have a car factory that makes $40,000 cars you still won't make any money if nobody can afford a $40,000 car.

      India is making the transition into a service-based economy. They have some real innovators over there taking advantage of the largest English-speaking population in the world. But they still have that nasty caste system to deal with. Their economic growth may not be as fast as China's, but it will take them to a more secure conclusion.

      Russia has two advantages going for it: an existing high-tech base (but they have some catching up to do in the consumer goods area) and a metric fuckload of oil (they're poised to beat out Saudi Arabia as #1 oil exporter). Couple that second one with a Western-esque culture and the currently warm political climate between them and the US and before too long you'll end up with Russia and the US locked together in a mutual admiration club. Baring a major political upheaval, Russia and the US are destined to work with each other far more than they work against each other. Visualize American oil companies buying Russian oil while those Russian oil employees buy shiny new Maytag washers and dryers.

      "Lastly, we may indeed be relegated to second (or lower) place on the world's stage, in space and other fields."

      While they may be catching up to us economically, it will be a long time indeed before anybody (especially China) has the wherewithall to compete with the US militarily, technologically or even politically.

    5. Re:Eventually it is not going to matter. by Chris+Y+Taylor · · Score: 2

      "Visualize American oil companies buying Russian oil while those Russian oil employees buy shiny new Maytag washers and dryers. "

      As someone who is currently employed designing oil drilling equipment*, I can say that the current state of affairs is: American oil companies buying Russian oil while those Russian Oil companies buy the oil drilling and pumping equipment from American Mfg. Companies. Despite the fact that we are a manufacturing company, a lot of our "value" comes from service; that is spending a lot of engineering man-hours customizing the equipment to the needs of the users and the environment they will drill in. Those Ruskies look very serious about their efforts to supplant Saudi Arabia.

      I don't think China will ever be able to compete with the United States until they begin to emulate the Free World politically and economically. An economy managed from the top down will never be competitive with a free market because economies are just too complex for our current ability to measure, calculate, and control. I think that is also why the idea behind Japan Inc. has produced a decade long "recession". Despite their propaganda to the contrary, China is run a lot more like a "company town" than it is a "workers paradise". Once they do become a free country, I wish them all the success they can handle.

      *Another year of faithful service and I can start attending the secret Oil Business consiracy planning sessions where we figure out how to keep alternative energy sources from being economically viable. BWA HA HA HA!

  16. Shenzhou = Holy Vessel by grainofsand · · Score: 3, Interesting

    For what it is worth, Shenzhou translates as Holy Vessel or Holy Ship.

    --
    A dream is good. A plan is better.
  17. It Begs The Question by nickynicky9doors · · Score: 2

    As you read this China's third unmanned (except for a dummy)

    Ya gotta ask... nah it's too funny as it is.:)
    --

    heuristic algorithm seeks stochastic relationship
    1. Re:It Begs The Question by nickynicky9doors · · Score: 2

      Thnx... with effort both my spelling and grammar are barely acceptable but in this case the culprit is my attempt to type fast, faster, fastest; and, once I type the sig I tend not to notice it. But thnx anyway.

      --

      heuristic algorithm seeks stochastic relationship
  18. rumor from the old days by alizard · · Score: 2, Interesting
    I'm not entirely certain that the passenger is a dummy. There was a rumor floating around some years back that the first Russian missions allegedly "manned" by dummies actually were flying corpses, i.e. the life support systems didn't work as advertised.

    Perhaps the Chinese had the same problem and decided to spin the PR the same way.

    However, I hope this is not true and look forward to welcoming China to the "Man in Space" club.

    Of course, it would be nice to know that NASA is responding with the nanotube-based space elevator project or an orbital-speed railgun to allow undercutting China's prices by a factor of a few hundred and their own current pricing by a factor of a few thousand.

    1. Re:rumor from the old days by quantaman · · Score: 2

      The Shenzhou III, which Chinese media described as being "technically suitable for astronauts", was launched after months of delays.
      This along with a few other quotes suggests that it was known before hand that it was a dummy flying it and not some poor shmuk who got hit with a broken life support. From the may they described all the passenger simulation stuff they had up there there would simply be no need for a human who might die and splash paint on your face. On the same note I would wonder about the rumor about the soviets seeing as how they likely said they were flying a dummy first. Although they certainly could have found "volunteers" I don't think I would be very willing to go on a space ride being only advertized as a dummy, I'd like them to have a little more confidence in the life support first!

      --
      I stole this Sig
    2. Re:rumor from the old days by ender81b · · Score: 3, Informative

      These stories where all hoaxes. For more information I suggest you read this which explains the origins/myths of the so-called 'phantom cosmonauts'

  19. Cheaper to just build ICBMs by Goonie · · Score: 2
    So why are they wasting money building resources for manned missions?

    Whatever the Chinese are up to, it ain't ICBM building. They already have them.

    --

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from a rigged demo
    --Andy Finkel (J. Klass?)
  20. Re:Per Capita GNP is a better measure. by RobertFisher · · Score: 4, Funny

    Oh yes. Per capita GNP. The same measure that Luxembourg beats the US out on. By almost a factor of 2, as well. Over $45,000 per capita for Luxembourg versus a bit over $28,000 for the US. I suppose that makes Luxmberourg the world's most powerful economy in the world.

    Seriously though, the buying power of an economy is jointly determined by both the total PPP and PPP per capita. But when it comes to research expenditures, the total size of the economy is what is important. If you can afford to spend a few percent of your economy on research, the total PPP is what is most important. The PPP per capita is also important, but its importance issecondary -- it is related to how much your citizens can afford to be taxed, and so is related to the percent of your total PPP which you can afford to allocate towards research.

    Bob

    --
    Science, like Nature, must also be tamed, with a view turned towards its preservation.
  21. Launched a N'sync member? by Namarrgon · · Score: 3, Funny
    unmanned (except for a dummy)

    I think they did.

    --
    Why would anyone engrave "Elbereth"?
  22. Nothing to do with SDI... by sweatyboatman · · Score: 3, Informative

    ...Unless you think it'd be a good idea to shoot down foreign astronauts.

    In case you're just tuning in, China can already "deliver highly enriched Uranium right to your doorstep".
    http://www.kimsoft.com/korea/ch-war.htm

    But this wasn't an ICBM test. This was "a manned space vessel"

    Instead they're doing something progressive and forward looking, investing in science and technology. Perhaps they will agree to help fund or build the ISS.

    Please keep your hate-mongering to yourself.

    Sweat

    --
    It breaks my pluginses, my precious!
  23. Re:WARNING! by cicadia · · Score: 2

    Sure -- I always surf the web with telnet; doesn't everyone?

    --
    Living better through chemicals
  24. Believe it when I see it..... by Brian_Ellenberger · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Note: all facts taken from CIA factbook http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index .html

    Haven't we heard this before time and time again. The Japanese, the Germans, the EU, the Russians, etc, etc, etc. I remember back in the 80s when Japan was "taking over the world" and Americans were just lazy stupid people who would all soon be working for Japanese bosses. Hasn't turned out that way, eh?

    First of all, remember that past economic growth is no indication of future growth. See dot com boom. Don't make the same mistake with other country's economies (or this one's). Secondly, every country has its own difficulties. China has serious internal stability problems to deal with (see Tienanmen Square). It still has a very large percentage of agriculture based workers, around 50%. The per capita GDP is only $3,600 (compared to $36,200 for US). Remember that with x4 the population of the US you have to spend x4 the resources feeding and clothing them. Finally, while they have over a billion people now it will be interesting to see what long term effects the "one-child" policy will have---especially if the vast majority of Chinese choose to have males.

    Of course, they still may come up and kick our butts. But don't think it will be simple.

    Brian Ellenberger

    1. Re:Believe it when I see it..... by RobertFisher · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Brian :

      I think you are confusing my argument with those of other individuals. I am saying the total size of the economy is, in the long run, proportional to the total resources (natural, human, etc.) available to it. The implicit assumption is that in the long run, nations will eventually find ways to solve their internal social and economic problems. The US has no exlusive monopoly on high productivity -- eventually other nations will adapt to our solution, or find even better solutions. It may not happen in a year, or a decade, or possibly even a century. But it will happen. This is certainly true historically -- if you look over very long period of time (say a century or more), productivity has dramatically increased in every modern nation. The US does not have exclusive rights to high productivity, and eventually the unseen hand of economics tends to level the playing field.

      Note that Japan's economy will always be limited by the fact that it can only support so many people on its land. It has indeed done very well, but it cannot sustain orders of magnitude higher productivity than the US.

      In the 18th century, Alexis DeToqueville made an interesting prediction that Russia and the United States would eventually come to be world powers, based on a similar line of logic. Skeptics at that time looked at the US, which was quite a backwater place, and scoffed at the notion. Their criticisms are very similar to those you pose for China today. It took a very long time for the US to develop the economic, legal, and social institutions to succeed as a predominant world power -- almost two centuries. I would argue the same will prove true for China in the next century. It is a very safe bet.

      Bob

      --
      Science, like Nature, must also be tamed, with a view turned towards its preservation.
  25. OMFG, you're insane by cadallin451 · · Score: 2, Informative
    It is your kind of attitude that is going to lead to WWIII, which is, by the way, A BAD THING.

    (in the oops we just turned the Earth into a copy of Venus sense)

    SDI does not, and cannot work, and here's why:

    The change in the cost for an SDI system to increase its effectiveness is exponential, while the change in cost to defeat an SDI system is linear. Therefore, delta C (of SDI) is larger order than delta C (to defeat SDI). What this means is that the cost of an SDI system approaches infinity much faster than the cost of building nukes.

    But how do I get these functions from you ask? simple.

    Any ballistic missle counter measure is very expensive, because its technology (primarily guidance, but everything must be of much higher quality, you just can't afford failures) must be much much better than that of a ballistic missle. Therefore in order to reach, oh say 50% effectiveness (that is 50% of deployed countermeasures successfully neutralize their targets) you must spend far, far more on your countermeasures to defeat the enemies attack, than the attacker has to spend on his missles. Think about it in terms of computers, the guidance chip in a nuke can be equivelant to about a 386 and still be able to perform quite well, while an anti-ballistic missle unit needs at least an Athlon. Now consider the difference in cost between the two: the 386 costs maybe $5 now, while the Althon is over $200, thats exponential change in cost for you.

    An attacker though, has only to launch more missles to neutralize your countermeasures.

    So before you get all riled up to get into a nuke tossing war with someone, you need to think damn long and hard about what you consider acceptable losses, because anyway you slice it, if the US gets into a Nuke war, because we are going to lose several major cities, SDI or no.

    You people need to realize that the only real hope to avoid such a situation is for the US to stop acting like a swaggering unilateral bull, and to start acting like a responsible citizen of the world. We must start solving the very real issues that face the world today or WWIII will happen. The primary issues are Overpopulation, coupled with the problem of food and water supply, and the substantial damage being done to the environment.

    The earth is already pretty badly overpopulated (according to UN), currently that means that the amount of population over the sustainable population is causing immense damage to the ecosphere. It is eventually going to get so bad that we will see food riots, widespread cannabalism and all the Malthusian horrors. This is a path that leads invariably to war, probably the last war that will ever be fought on earth.

    The US, and all the other major nations need to be acting now to counteract population growth and environmental damage, not wasting resources setting up a worthless missle defense system.

    1. Re:OMFG, you're insane by mpe · · Score: 2

      Any ballistic missle counter measure is very expensive, because its technology (primarily guidance, but everything must be of much higher quality, you just can't afford failures) must be much much better than that of a ballistic missle. Therefore in order to reach, oh say 50% effectiveness (that is 50% of deployed countermeasures successfully neutralize their targets) you must spend far, far more on your countermeasures to defeat the enemies attack, than the attacker has to spend on his missles. Think about it in terms of computers, the guidance chip in a nuke can be equivelant to about a 386 and still be able to perform quite well,

      A 386 is probably overkill. The only thing a ballistic missile really needs to be able to cope with is the unevenness of the atmosphere as it reenters. Otherwise it's course is just a matter of newtonian physics.
      Also it is trivial to defeat such an anti missile system if you can smuggle weapons into your enemy's cities. This isn't viable with high explosive truck bombs since you need to get them very near to specific buildings.

    2. Re:OMFG, you're insane by ryanwright · · Score: 2

      We must start solving the very real issues that face the world today or WWIII will happen. The primary issues are Overpopulation, coupled with the problem of food and water supply, and the substantial damage being done to the environment.

      At the risk of burning some karma, let me be the first say "Bullshit." What the hell makes you think we are responsible for solving the world's problems? We continue to send $Billions in taxpayer money to third world countries, and for what? So those idiots can continue pumping out babies, spreading disease, and refusing to grow their own food? With the US taxpayers footing the bill they have no incentive to better their situation. Look at the spread of AIDS in Africa, for example! We've tried to warn them. We've bought them condoms, we've urged their government to teach them, but they don't listen. They keep spreading it to one another. They obviously don't care about themselves, so why the fuck should we care about them?

      Food riots? Widespread cannabalism? Not in any civilized countries.

      It's time to end third world dependence on the United States. Send in huge numbers of specialists and spend a couple of years teaching these idiots to grow their own food, use birth control, and curb the spread of disease. Once they've been taught and are capable of surviving, leave them to their own devices. If they fail, then I guess they'll have to figure their own way out of the situation, because I'm getting sick and fucking tired of supporting everyone. It is NOT our job to take care of them. Period.

      --
      -Ryan, with the unoriginal sig
    3. Re:OMFG, you're insane by ryanwright · · Score: 2

      fuck you. idiot shits like you dont deserve a cognative response.

      As opposed to you, a witty, intelligent, and brave person with the capability to form said response?

      By the way, it's 'cognitive'. Smart ass.

      --
      -Ryan, with the unoriginal sig
  26. Re:SDI makes the US *more* vulnerable. by glrotate · · Score: 2, Insightful

    No I don't understand:

    You're going to be very tempted to nuke the USA before the system is in place and you lose the opportunity.

    What would be the point of nuking the US before SDI was operational? We're still operating under MAD. If they were to launch a first strike now, they would only ensure their own destruction.

    Safeguard was a bit before my time (60's?) but wasn't it designed to protect our ICBM's?

    Folowing your argument that a defensive technology like SDI destablizes the world would suggest that we arm all the nations of the world with nukes so that all parties live in fear of the each other.

    Make your ad hominem attacks all you like. Building a DEFENSIVE system is not jingoistic or xenophobic, it merely reflects the sad state of affairs that the proliferation of nukes and icbms is getting ready to explode (pun intentended) and not taking action to defend oneself is foolish idealism.

  27. They got you by the_pres · · Score: 2, Funny

    Oh, no!

    You have fallen into the trap! The only aim of this spacepod-show was the slashdotting of NORAD! You have compromised US security.

    Prepare to pay!

  28. Re:SDI makes the US *more* vulnerable. by Alex+Belits · · Score: 2

    What would be the point of nuking the US before SDI was operational? We're still operating under MAD. If they were to launch a first strike now, they would only ensure their own destruction.

    Working ABM makes eventual destruction of the ABM-owning aggressive country's "enemies" inevitable, so MAD is not a sufficient deterrent -- whatever kind of destruction may happen at the moment when threat is apparent, is insignificant compared to offensive capabilities that will be used later, so it's safer to attack now and risk having large percentage of population destroyed, as opposed to be turned into a hole in the ground later.

    --
    Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
  29. Re:Per Capita GNP is a better measure. by mpe · · Score: 2

    Absolute size of the economy is all that matters. If per capita was important, Switzerland would have a far better space program than India.

    At one time the country with the highest PCGNP was was Kuwait... Because of having a lot of high value exports, small population and a very wide gap between rich and poor.

  30. Lets hope the chinese werent stupid enough to by HanzoSan · · Score: 2

    Throw our DNA into space,along with a map,

    Thats like an invitation to conquer earth.

    --
    If you use Linux, please help development of Autopac
  31. Re:SDI makes the US *more* vulnerable. by mpe · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What would be the point of nuking the US before SDI was operational? We're still operating under MAD. If they were to launch a first strike now, they would only ensure their own destruction.

    MAD only works against missile strikes since you have an identifiable enemy. What do you do if someone were to simply detonate nuclear weapons in a city? No launch detection or radar tracking letting you know exactly where the missiles came from and where they are going. (Useful for getting anyone like the US president either into a bunker or onto a plane heading away from the target as fast as possible.)
    If it actually happened now the US would probably immediatly bomb Bagdad, only question would be Minuteman or Trident? Wonder if anyone dislikes both the US and Iraq...

  32. Why do so many morons think this is "cool"? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

    Despite Chinese propaganda saying otherwise (and their use of Scientology-like "attack, never defend" philosophy in countering criticism of their government with criticism of ours), China's government is barbaric and tyrannical. And it seems to get worse with each iteration.

    This current regime has raided and destroyed "unauthorized churches," putting believers in prison for the horrible crime of practicing "unauthorized religions," such as Christianity.

    They routinely burn books, especially political and religious works.

    After their stupid one-child policy fell flat on its face, they decided to implement even stricter forced-abortion and forced-sterilization policies that are barbaric, irregardless of any "overpopulation problem" (a myth perpetuated by a Chinese government unwilling to defend its insane agricultural policies or corrupt system of land/wealth 'redistribution').

    Dissidents are either a) killed, b) jailed or c) sent to "re-education camps". Lovely.

    The US is loony to continue to omit China from the "Axis of Evil," especially considering that *they* are the up and coming threat. Bullshit diplomacy aside, the Chinese government has grown increasingly beligerent in the past decade, proportional to the level of technology they've stolen/developed. To applaud their entry into space using US stolen technology is ridiculous, unless you stupidly have faith in Bush's crazy missile shield. When the next cold war starts see how fucking "cool" it seems when ICBMs are pointed at your city.

  33. taxing logic by twitter · · Score: 2
    If you can afford to spend a few percent of your economy on research, the total PPP is what is most important. The PPP per capita is also important, but its importance issecondary -- it is related to how much your citizens can afford to be taxed, and so is related to the percent of your total PPP which you can afford to allocate towards research.

    Spoken like a good party man. GNP, PPP, or whatever you want to call it per capita is paramount. If you don't have enough money to educate your citezens, you won't have science. Sure, you can build up a few elite institutions and educate thousands. If you are really good, you can even beat human nature and load those institutions with your best and brightest. Those efforts still can not compete with oportunities given millions, where the best and brightests can rise by merrit.

    There can be no happiness without wisdom. There is no wisdom without free exchage of knowledge. There is no happiness in a state where politics trumps truth. We shall see where the Chinese go with their wealth. Comand economies tend to waste.

    --

    Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.

  34. I hope this starts another space race. by interstellar_donkey · · Score: 2, Insightful

    America seems to have had uneasy relationships with China. As somebody interested in world peace I'd like us to be freinds.

    But as someone who is interested in space travel, I'd like to see those relationships remain uneasy.

    Since the last landing on the moon, no person has gone further then Earth's orbit.

    I'd love to see the Chinese put a colony on Mars so our Government would get off it's rear and see space as something more then a place to park satilites.

    --
    The Internet is generally stupid
  35. Re:Space chopsticks by Silicon_Knight · · Score: 2

    Yet another cultural misconception. Southern China places a big emphasis on rice grains, but the climate is way too dry in the north to grow it as a grain. Wheat, as a result is the predominant grain. Chinese cusine is divided into 4 big regions, corresponding to the 4 directions on the compass, each with its own unique charactersitics. Historically a lot of dried (and reconstituted) ingredients are used in cooking - stuff like mushrooms, cloud ears, bamboo shoots, shark fins, etc, so it'd be REALLY intresting to see what they come up with for "Space food". Hopefully it'll beat freeze-dried pizza at the Exploratorium :-)

  36. it's amazing what you can do with the news by twitter · · Score: 2
    Although they certainly could have found "volunteers" I don't think I would be very willing to go on a space ride being only advertized as a dummy, I'd like them to have a little more confidence in the life support first!

    It's amazing what you can do in a comand economy where you own the press. Convi^H^H^H^H Agent Yu would never know the difference, and what he thinks is unimportant. There is no truth without independent thrird party verification.

    To get a brief introduction to such horrors, check out "The Russian Centruy" by Barnes and Noble press. It's so bad that you want to dismiss it as propaganda, but there's so much that you can't. First hand accounts pile up on each other, each more terrible than the next, to support sweeping descriptions of mass murder, incompetence, waste, corruption, greed and indiference. The photos really bring home the scale and horror. Hundreds of cultures, were subsumed and nothing is so depressing as the bits of humanity that shine out from each picture. Smiles and triumphs of the suffering and doomed are more haunting than pictures of ruined churches and dead people.

    So as this rocket wizzes overhead, let us remember the horror that launched it. Forced labor, institutionalized atheism, idealology at gunpoint, "universal" education, intense secret police monitoring and all the other hallmarks of Communist super states are at work. You won't really know how bad things are until it's over and even then you will be left wondering. The truth is allways worse than honest people suspect.

    --

    Friends don't help friends install M$ junk.

  37. Re:A colony on Mars? Holy dumb by interstellar_donkey · · Score: 2

    Who cares if they aren't manned

    I care. And i'm not alone.

    --
    The Internet is generally stupid
  38. Re:Per Capita GNP is a better measure. by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 2
    Perhaps a better (but still simplistic) formula is per capita GNP X number of people.

    Um ... I think I'm just going to let that statement sit out there all by its lonesome, without any additional commentary whatsoever. Nope. Nothing to add to that one at all, folks.

    --
    The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
  39. I have lived and suffered in China by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The cheery attitude most of you have towards Chinese advancement is astonishing. Jiang builds China's wealth just like every other evil dictator has, by holding guns to workers' heads and telling them to toil and hand over the fruits of their labor graciously, or be imprisoned or shot. Farm communities in China that barely harvest enough to feed the village have their harvests snatched away for purposes of 'redistribution', which really means export for money through dummy companies, money that does not come back to Chinese farmers but instead gets cycled into the military or royal coffers. Because of this, the youth, who normally would work on the farms, go to factory work instead because there they are paid pittance which can buy food, food that Chinese should have already because they farmed it. Farms in China are just like the Matrix, "copper tops" for the government to abuse for cash purposes, and they have the side effect of forcing all youth to work in factories making textiles and machinery where they are not paid enough to keep their families alive. THIS is the money that is funding China's great space program, this money that has been washed in the blood of the citizens of China, money got through a bad system of forced indenture. And if you dare suggest that in China the penalty will be far worse than a mod to Flamebait or Troll, you will be chucked in jail and then either killed or sent to a concentration camp where your love of the Chinese government will be 'reinforced' through torture and brain-washing.

    And mistaking China's ambition for exploratory curiosity is a deadly mistake. Chinese rulers above all else are charged with the goal of unifying China at all costs, and that is what they strive for. The Hong Kong treaty expiration was great motivation, now China is pushing hard internally to get Taiwan once and for all. And once they get it they will treat it like Macau and Tibet, 'cleansing' it of unauthorized religions and beliefs through force of bullets, and then they will treat it like Hong Kong, twisting the fruits of its capitalism to serve greater China, forcing immediate socialism. This is the goal of China's space program. They want to be able to hit other continents with nuke missiles, or at least aim them. So next time they make land-grabs all around them, they do not have to fear retaliation from those countries' allies, because they do not think a nuclear war will ever be started over Taiwan.

    I am sorry for my multiple postings before expressing rage, but this is how I see it because I lived on a farm, I worked in a factory, and I am now a refugee because of my political views. China cannot have it both ways, they cannot keep sending students to America to learn technology while expecting them to dutifully return and put their knowledge to use for the furthering of China's goals. They cannot expect us to see freedom and then return to the bosom of terror voluntarily and without criticism. This is impossible. And I will criticize the policies of China until my last breath, because I know their true motives. Do not be fooled by their public speech. There is a concept in China, of inner and outer, where one face is presented to strangers while another is preserved for family. This is how it is. China presents nice outer face for world community, while inner face, presented to Chinese, is snarling and mean and cruel and hard. Do not be fooled. Do not support China and its race into space. They do not mean to explore, they only mean to gain new advantage to further abuse power here on Earth.

    1. Re:I have lived and suffered in China by cybercuzco · · Score: 2

      by holding guns to workers' heads and telling them to toil and hand over the fruits of their
      labor graciously,

      If the workers are being exploited, then they should rise up and overthrow the government, and form some sort of "workers paradise" in which they can all live in peace and harmony. Oh wait, they already tried that.

      --

    2. Re:I have lived and suffered in China by Winged+Cat · · Score: 2

      Ironic, isn't it? Revolutions intended to benefit one class - say, just the workers at the expense of the upper crust - tend only to produce a new exploited/exploiter distinction. Meanwhile, revolutions intended to benefit everyone across the board, deliberately allowing someone to be exploited if they so wish it, wind up reducing this exploitation overall.

    3. Re:I have lived and suffered in China by cybercuzco · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Where is the improvement? Technology improves and factories produce more and more with less labor, but the preponderance of the profits are going to the factory owners so the workers are actually getting poorer.

      So whats the solution then? violent overthrow of the bourgeoisie by the working class? been there, done that, got purged. There has to be a way to decrease the gap between righ and poor without creating a new class or rich and a new class of poor. Marxisim-leninisim just isnt going to cut it because it doesnt work. Social Democracy seems to be working out OK for europe, but they still have a discrepancy between rich and poor, and have double digit unempoyment to boot. What are you suggesting replace the current system, such that people dont lose their jobs, their homes, or their lives, that also gives more money to the people who deserve it. The problem with Capitalism is that it takes a long time for people to get anywhere, usually about 3 generations.

      --

    4. Re:I have lived and suffered in China by Winged+Cat · · Score: 2

      The American family in the 1950s only had only the father working. Today the mother, father and teens work!

      The mother and teens get paid to work now, partially because they are free to do labor that benefits other people (or not, by their whim; some choose to work). That doesn't mean they worked any less back then.

      Technology improves and factories produce more and more with less labor, but the preponderance of the profits are going to the factory owners so the workers are actually getting poorer.

      Nope, sorry. In real dollars, workers have been getting more money. Granted, the gap between the rich and the poor has been growing, but even the common American laborer today has a standard of living that the rich of olden days could only dream about. The data is out there; I encourage you to check it for yourself.

      That said, there are also those who are genuinely horrified that the commoners have been getting better lives. They wish a return to the old days for everyone, if only because they fear their relative opulence is meaningless unless everyone else suffers. Some honestly believe that, in this return, they can somehow keep themselves exempt, and become like gods upon humanity. They therefore spread myths and lies about how the common people are worse off today than they used to be...and you, friend, seem to have fallen for their propaganda. (Would it be fair to call them "evil", since they wish ill upon everyone but themselves?)

    5. Re:I have lived and suffered in China by Winged+Cat · · Score: 2

      It's how most American families have better access to medical care (and better quality medical care, at that), or don't have to worry as much about putting food on the table (indeed, too much food has become a problem) or getting access to transportation so as to have a wider variety of jobs to choose from...in addition to consumer stuff like having more TVs.

      If you really want to work 18 hours a day for wages below today's legally mandated minimum, you're free to do so (if you can find an employer who would go along), but most Americans reject
      such misery. Your "garbage" is what most people want and freely choose. Or, if you really think this lifestyle is ideal and would prefer to live where that was the only option, maybe you should ask China about immigration. I know, you'll probably just dismiss anything I say out of anger, but seriously...if you're so unhappy here, and you would be happier there, then why not go there?

    6. Re:I have lived and suffered in China by Chris+Y+Taylor · · Score: 2

      If you don't want to pay 12 of your little Candian dollars for a moive... the don't spend them on it. Go buy a book or something. Don't tell me that the Canadian gov't sends a SWAT team out to put a gun to your head, forcibly remove 12 dollars from you and lock you in a movie theater (if they do, then you should move to a different country... perhaps Quebec). Do they not have cheap theaters there in Canada that play the movies a couple of months after they are released in the expensive theaters? If so, go to them instead. If enough movie goers go to them instead of the mainstream theaters then the expensive theaters will have to lower their prices to attract their customers back. If you can't stand to wait 2 months to see the movie and you'd rather spend that money on a movie than on other entertainment... well, then it sounds like you must be getting your 12 dollars worth of value out of the movie and you are just upset that you can't rip off the movie theater by getting more value than you pay for.

  40. space tourism? by peter303 · · Score: 2

    Perhaps the Chinese will find economic ways of sending people into space instead of NASA bloat-ware which costs a half-billion per shuttle launch ($100 million per person). It would take 500 people a year paying what Tito and the N'SYNC guy are paying to fund NASA's bloated program.

    1. Re:space tourism? by 4of12 · · Score: 2

      Have some pity, though, on the idealistic scientists trapped in a government bureaucracy when all they wanted to do was good basic science.

      While their agency's funding gets whipsawed around like a political football (Wait, make sure you fund the contractors in my district!), they're trying to do something meaningful and worthwhile.

      Along the lines of a ToDo list for NASA, I'd really like to see a few more investments into orbiting telescopes like the Hubble, but better, and perhaps even several of them to get a solar system wide VLBA effect.

      --
      "Provided by the management for your protection."
  41. Re:Gosh, there sure are a lot of ignorant /.ers by Guppy06 · · Score: 2

    "2) This "space program" is a thinly-disguised ruse. China is trying to maneuver itself into a two-front cold war, for many reasons, not the least of which is Taiwan.

    No, that's the last thing they want. As it stands now the People's Army would have their heads handed to them by Taiwanese forces even without US intervention. Such is the price of not being able to trust your military.

    On top of that all of their economic reforms are very expensive both in terms of money and public morale. They simply couldn't afford a nuclear arsenal much bigger than their current (paltry) stockpile, let alone something that could match the US arsenal (with our without the warheads we're putting into storage).

    While China does need some sort of rivalry with the US in order to give itself a sense of purpose and importance, they have to make sure to do it in a way that that doesn't piss us off too much. Look at how quiet they've gotten suddenly after our newly declared war on terrorism.

  42. Re:Cool - A few advantages of going into space by Winged+Cat · · Score: 2

    And yet the nations do not care to. Which means it is up to individuals.

    Would you care to put in the effort to, say, get the only lunar mining/processing/construction colony up and running? Big effort, yes, but also big rewards if done properly...

  43. Re:permanent station on the moon by Tackhead · · Score: 2
    > > [China will be 1st to have a permanent lunar station]
    >
    >More power to them. I guess pissing their money away on nonsense like that instead of feeding their people is one way of controlling the population.

    What you say with irony, I say with conviction.

    I'd prefer that the first lunar colony be American.

    But if America decides it wants nothing to do with space, I'd much rather have a Chinese space programme than no space programme at all.

    (All of which, frankly, is moot; I agree with the poster who said that the main motivation is for the Chinese to demonstrate their ballistic missile capability.)

  44. Re:SDI makes the US *more* vulnerable. by Omerna · · Score: 2

    What do you do if someone were to simply detonate nuclear weapons in a city?

    Missile-defense isn't designed to protect against this... only missiles. Your argument is like:

    "That front airbag won't protect me from a side-on collision."

    You're arguing against something entirely different.

    --


    No sig for you.
  45. Re:SDI makes the US *more* vulnerable. by Alex+Belits · · Score: 2

    If the potential attacker is aggressive enough to build working missle defense, there is no possible outcome that it will tolerate the existence of its "enemies" at all -- in this case the time is on the side of the country that built the defense first. Therefore playing for time is pointless, it's better to destroy the future aggressor at any cost.

    --
    Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
  46. Re:SDI makes the US *more* vulnerable. by Alex+Belits · · Score: 2

    That's ridiculous. The goal of aggression is to force people to do what you want, not to kill them. Killing is only done to set an example or eliminate a threat. Aggressive nations *need* enemies to exploit.

    Decisions to start a war are made by governments, not by collections of all individuals. Certainly governments will defend their own survival/independence/...

    --
    Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
  47. Re:SDI makes the US *more* vulnerable. by Alex+Belits · · Score: 2

    Yes, and suicide is incompatible with that goal! Your argument would make sense if the country without the defense were starting from a position of superiority, where it could wipe out the opposing country and still survive.

    "Superiority" and "complete destruction" are myths -- certainly something will survive even a global nuclear war, it just would really, really suck compared to what mankind is/was for the most of its history. And certainly that, pretty bad by any measure, situation would be still better than what countries may expect to be turned into by a sufficiently aggressive opponent, acting with guaranteed impunity -- if nuclear war's results have limits, human cruelty and stupidity don't.

    --
    Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
  48. Re:SDI makes the US *more* vulnerable. by Alex+Belits · · Score: 2

    There are a lot of countries where infrastructure was at some point destroyed, yet they exist. And it's hard to kill _everybody_ in the government -- "government" is usually a large number of organizations, not just top-level institutions that are associated with the word "government" for most of people.

    --
    Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.