A Unified Theory of Software Evolution
jso888 writes "Salon has a nice article today on Meir Lehman's work on how software evolves and is developed. Lehman's investigation of the IBM OS/360 development process became the foundation for Brooks' Law: "Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later." He is hopeful that his work will make software development less of an art and more of an engineering science."
"Unless IBM programmers had suddenly figured out a way to write error-free code -- an unlikely assumption -- Lehman made a dire prediction: OS/360 was heading over a cliff. IBM, in stressing growth over source-code maintenance, would soon be in need of a successor operating system."
Which means that commerical systems don't so much evolve as stub their growth paths out and switch direction or spawn new generations because embedded complexity has killed off the feasibility of maintaining it. In other words, all new releases are the cause of and ultimately an attempt to escape from, the chimera that is overly complex code. In commercial terms this should be astounding. We're paying to gronk up our own because we erroneously believe the NEXT version will be something radically new and elegant which of course it can't be.
New Version "x+1.y" is simply an ejection seat.