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A Unified Theory of Software Evolution
jso888 writes "Salon has a nice article today on Meir Lehman's work on how software evolves and is developed. Lehman's investigation of the IBM OS/360 development process became the foundation for Brooks' Law: "Adding manpower to a late software project makes it later." He is hopeful that his work will make software development less of an art and more of an engineering science."
very few projects should have more than 10 programmers (if any).
You realize you just suggested that very few software projects should have any programmers. How is the project going to get completed without anyone working on it?
While "Brook's law" might be a law, it's only useful in retrospect. Most software projects have no idea how far behind they really are. So basically, you can always add manpower, you're really only half way through anyways...
"Unless IBM programmers had suddenly figured out a way to write error-free code -- an unlikely assumption -- Lehman made a dire prediction: OS/360 was heading over a cliff. IBM, in stressing growth over source-code maintenance, would soon be in need of a successor operating system."
Which means that commerical systems don't so much evolve as stub their growth paths out and switch direction or spawn new generations because embedded complexity has killed off the feasibility of maintaining it. In other words, all new releases are the cause of and ultimately an attempt to escape from, the chimera that is overly complex code. In commercial terms this should be astounding. We're paying to gronk up our own because we erroneously believe the NEXT version will be something radically new and elegant which of course it can't be.
New Version "x+1.y" is simply an ejection seat.
From the article:
Michael Godfrey, a University of Waterloo scientist, is equally hesitant but still finds the Lehman approach useful. In 2000, Godfrey and a fellow Waterloo researcher, Qiang Tu, released a study showing that several open-source software programs, including the Linux kernel and fetchmail, were growing at geometric rates, breaking the inverse squared barrier constraining most traditionally built programs. Although the discovery validated arguments within the software development community that large system development is best handled in an open-source manner, Godfrey says he is currently looking for ways to refine the quantitative approach to make it more meaningful.
It would have been interesting had they delved deeper into this finding. Yeah, I know, the true believers in open source all feel superior (we are, aren't we?), but exploring the reasons why it works would be interesting.
Is it the large-scale peer-review process? Is it that we occasionally rewrite parts (filesystems, VMM, etc)? Something else?
Not only is this not true, it's impossible to do this in practice. If you do this, you'll find that you still blow a lot of time on design, development takes longer, because your design is unnecessarily abstract, and your design proves inadequate for something that you need to implement further down the road. Requirements change, and this has consequences for the design. The best one can hope for is that the basic architecture is robust enough that it doesn't require a complete upheaval.
What is necessary is a method for changing design gracefully. "Refactoring" is the best source I've seen that addresses this. Basically, you change methodically, and you test.
To a Lisp hacker, XML is S-expressions in drag.
A quick warning... I consider myself a relative newborn in the world of software development. I present these opinions under the consideration that my opinions can change at any moment. =]
A lot of the dire predictions of software atrophy and such are a result of applying the wrong methodology to a project. Yes there are uses for Software engineering, but I think this approach is overkill for even large scale projects. Check out Software Craftsmanship: The New Imperative for a different perspective. A perspective I think is in need of serious consideration. The gist is returning to the days of master craftsman and apprenticeships. This focuses a bit more on the learning aspect than actual development methodologies, but you can always go to The Pragmatic Programmer to fill in that gap.
"As time passes, the system becomes less and less well-ordered. Sooner or later the fixing ceases to gain any ground. Each forward step is matched by a backward one. Although in principle usable forever, the system has worn out as a base for progress."
This is where "refactoring" (see Fowler's Refactoring) really shines. I find it difficult to believe that refining the software base is not progress. An initial revision where the code functions by its contract (if your into designing by contract), then you refactor the body of the function/method for speed / elegance. Then you can run your unit tests on the function / method to test that the refactoring session did not break any of the design contracts (whew).
I think they may be trying to restate the broken window theory (see Pragmatic Programmer), were a broken window (or bug) in a building (or system) leads to delapidation elsewhere in the building (or system).
And then there are the agile methods, including XP. I think these answer a lot of the limitations and issues with Software Engineering practices. Interacting with clients (having a client there during each iteration) gives you the benefit of almost real-time feedback so that you can update your user stories on the fly, etc.
Without rambling on any farther, my point is not too spend too much time looking for a specific unified theory. Read up about all the ideas, methods, and theories. Take the best parts from each, then crank the knob all the way up (if I may borrow that from XP =] ). Don't let anyone tell you there is a science to software development that is easy to reproduce, and that you are just a link in the overall chain. You practice and perform a craft. Enjoy it!
From the article:
Is fetchmail complex enough that it needs to be growing geometrically? I mean yeah, fetchmail does a lot, and I do know what "geometric" means. Still, I doubt the world of email is changing fast enough that you'd want to choose that as your example of out-of-control software maintenance.
[Insert obligatory ESR goading.]