Slashdot Mirror
Simulating Societies
blamanj writes "Most of us were exposed fairly early to Conway's game of Life.
A few simple rules produce a fascinating variety of behavior. Now, it
appears that similar simulations can predict the behavior of populations and human societies."
For those who don't get subtil things (or just happened to miss this one)
When you perdict something people tend to act on the perdiction. Thus God sent a profit to warn Niniva of coming doom, but the people repented and so God no longer needed to send that doom. So does the fact that the people lived (for 100 years before some other country invaded) mean that God doesn't exist, or that repenting will save your life?
If everyone knew the terrorist were going to fly a plane into the world trade center in september nobody would have been there. (other than press, and some engineers to study the situation). If the terrorist knew they were discovered like that odds are they would call the whole thing off, and everyone would then laugh at those who gave a warning about something that never happened.
2000 is a perfect example. There were big comptuer problems related to the roll over from 1999 to 2000, but because there was warning the problems were fixed, so there were no problems, so the warnings must have been uneeded right?
There are many more examples that can be thought of. The point is clear though: warnings are a double edged sword.
However I'm willing to perdict the next terrorist bombing will be in Iseral/Palistine. You are now warned. (too bad I can't be more specific, this will do you little good if you live in that area)