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Trouble Ahead for Java
Jeremy Geelan writes "The editor-in-chief of the world's largest journal devoted to Java wonders whether, with the arrival of Microsoft's C# programming language on the scene, Java perhaps has only 5 years or so left to live. Javaland has erupted! This is a little like Bill Gates wondering out loud whether to send Scott McNealy a Christmas card. But is Alan Williamson right? Read this short article and decide for yourself."
All pages on one page here
mp3's are only for those with bad memories
Perhaps it's time that Sun stopped being such control freaks. IMHO, they've been the biggest problem with Java. They're at a severe disadvantage on the client now that MSFT no longer ship it with the OS, but will have the .Net runtime... most people don't want to download and install Sun's JRE.
Microsoft's C# entry will only cause more competition in the market, and the consumers and programmers are the ones who will benefit. I'd love to see Sun loosen some of their restrictive Java liscensing practices in response to C#, and I think that is just what will happen. Open source wins the day yet again.
-atrowe: Card-carrying Mensa member. I have no toleranse for stupidity.
There are so many Java programmers and so much Java code being produced that it will last a lot longer than five years. People still need Cobol programmers, ok so not mainstream but look how long ago that was designed and despite being crappy it is still here.
But as the article says it really doesn't help when people who should know better say "Java? No one is doing that now. Microsoft is no longer supporting it."
Gates has a lot to answer for.
Kevin
"It's not the cough that carries you off, it's the coffin they carry you off in" O. Nash
haven't they said something like this before?
the problem with C++ was that exactly zero of code was reused, even though it was supposed to be made simpler. Java code actually reuses itself pretty darn well, and last I checked J2EE library just keeps growing and growing, and largely its success is in that.
as for C#, i doubt anyone except Microsoft is interested in seeing more packages of it. it becomes pointless to have non-object code in C# if you are planning to devise a framework for other people to work with.
anyways, if Java only has five years life in it, why would you stake your life on C# of all things? wouldn't you expect that in five years people would be switching to something newer than the love-child of Java and Microsoft that didn't overtake its predecessor and hardly had any advantages except probably back-doors into the Windows kernel?
just my two cents...
I was thinking of how to intentionally fail my drug test... It would make a good memoir story someday.
This article is really light on details, and frankly useless. It seems more like a call-to-arms for Java developers, but it certainly lacks the power of Mel Gibson's speech in Braveheart.
.NET and C# do not - it's more mature, has a large developer base, and it's APIs and technologies are well thought out, spec'ed and documented.
.NET doesn't have anything that comes close.
.NET has going for it is Visual Studio.NET. Like it or not, it's a great development environment, and one that most Windows developers are already familiar with.
It basically is saying that since Microsoft doesn't support Java, Java will die. I'd like to hope that's not the case. Java has some things
As an example, I just started working with JavaMail a few days ago. Within 20 minutes I was reading emails and sending them. Talk about productive!
The only thing for me that
There May Be Trouble Ahead
by Alan Williamson
As Nat King Cole famously sang, we have to "face the music and dance..." This month's editorial is coming to you with a reader beware warning!
I've been engaged in some great debates over the last month on a variety of topics, but the one that has caught my interest is the old chestnut regarding the longevity of Java. Is it here to stay? If not, how long do we have? Quite rightly, it's being talked about and I've had the good fortune to brush shoulders with a number of big names in our industry who have given me their perspectives on the whole debate. I have my own feelings about where Java is headed and I do believe that if, as a community, we don't get our act together, we may have only five years left at the most. After talking to my counterparts, it would appear I'm being overly generous with five years.
What's happening? Well, it's our old friend C# and its relentless march toward the development community. Setting aside the old argument that due to Microsoft's dominance it may well win the day, it's interesting to look at other reasons why C# may win the battle. Let's blow away some misconceptions that you may or may not be aware of regarding this new kid.
Myth #1: C# is a Windows-only technology. .NET services alongside Apache on a Redhat box, seamlessly integrating into the rest of the network. This alone would be a major blow to server-side Java. It's also a subtle way for Microsoft to unofficially support the growing number of Linux seats without losing face (read www.halcyonsoft.com/news/iNET_PR.asp).
You could be excused for believing that, but did you know there's a major movement in the open source world to port the CLR (Common Language Runtime, i.e., their JVM!) to operating systems other than MS Windows? Linux, to name one. Imagine for a moment being able to run your
Myth #2: C# is an inferior Java clone.
This is the most dangerous one and the one you probably tell yourself in order to keep the scales tipped in Java's favor. The truth is, it's not an inferior clone; it's a different clone, with many arguing that the differences are minute to the majority of the developer community. It will be frighteningly easy for Java developers to move over to C# with no real headaches to contend with. I suspect this was always on Microsoft's mind when developing the language (read www.prism.gatech.edu/~gte855q/CsharpVsJava.html).
Myth #3: C# is for developing Web services only.
Most definitely not, and I have heard this one retorted back to me on a number of occasions. Ironically, this is the one area that could really hurt Java Ð on the client. As you know, Java has not made any significant headway in this space due mainly to its awfully slow Swing implementation. While the recent release of JDK1.4 has brought significant performance gains, it's still nowhere near the speed of its native Windows applications with respect to fast, snappy responses (although it must be said, the speed of a Swing application on a Mac OS-X does show what could be achieved). C# is the new building block for Windows applications, the next VB! And we know how many applications popped up when VB hit the market (read www.c-sharpcorner.com/WinForms.asp).
Okay, how many of you think I've abandoned all hope for Java and have gone to the dark side? I suspect some of you are questioning my loyalties at this precise moment, wondering if I'm fit to occupy my role as EIC. Well, don't panic, I'm merely being a realist and looking at it from all angles. You'd be the first ones to complain if I buried my head in the sand and just ignored the threat. We have to look at this together and come up with a strategy that will enable us to effectively take on C#. We'll be getting a lot of heat from all over and we need to be armed with the information and prepared to go back to the drawing board and reeducate the masses. Sadly, they are being led a merry dance by Pied Piper Gates.
Allow me to cite you an example of such blind ignorance and if this doesn't scare you, then I don't know what will. I was recently involved with the Scottish government, discussing technology and what have you, where naturally the topic of Microsoft was high on the agenda. Excusing the fact that these people took a certain pride in believing they knew what was going on and loved name-dropping, the phrase that caught me off guard was the following: "Java? No one is doing that now. Microsoft is no longer supporting it."
Wow! Talk about a major miscommunication. And this from someone who controls budgets for the technology sector in Scotland. Ironically, I believe he really thinks he has his finger on the pulse of technology. It's sheer ignorance like this that scares me the most. Microsoft has successfully planted and nurtured the seed in people's heads that just because it isn't supporting Java in Windows XP, Java is dead. I have to admit I was taken aback and quite flabbergasted when I heard that retort. I really didn't know where to go with that. So much background information was obviously missing that I wasn't too sure if I would come over as patronizing and whether, ultimately, they would understand.
Sadly, this is not an isolated incident. Ever since I started writing about this topic in my editorials, I've been hearing stories from you regarding similar misconceptions and it scares me. We have a beautiful language here in Java; it has achieved industry-wide support and is pushing forward with great velocity. What can we do to support it?
You do realize we need an anthem. All great causes have an anthem. Something for us to get behind and sing!!! Suggestions gratefully received. We need a Java song!
Until next month...
Author Bio
Alan Williamson is editor-in-chief of Java Developer's Journal. During the day he holds the post of chief technical officer at n-ary (consulting) Ltd, one of the first companies in the UK to specialize in Java at the server side. Rumor has it he welcomes all suggestions and comments.
I think the author has several good points, especially in pointing out some key shortcomings of Java (java on the client, Swing). Also, the .NET toolkit looks very competent and building and deploying .asp's is quite simple as compared to deploying a java solution.
.NET instead of Java in their tools. More important, when IBM and MS are talking to each other and making standards for web services, it is more likely than not that both Java and C# will coexist.
But the key thing not mentioned is the fact that Big Blue and the rest of the industry is quite determined on Java. Sure, IBM and Microsoft are working together on Web Services, but I think IBM is unlikely to start supporting
Java has shortcomings, but it has become a success despite this, and due to a vast support from professionals ranging from programmers to computer scientists. To say that all this will be gone in 5 years is more than bold, when in fact the amount of existing Java code are probably more than can be replaced in 5 years.
Of course, languages and platforms come and go, but since C# doesn't drastically change the way application development is done - which is what Java did, in several ways - I don't think it'll start a revolution in the way that the article suggests.
Oh, I can't help quoting you because everything that you said rings true
There are couple of key points that are interesting about this.
C# really is a standard. Microsoft's decision to go the standards route really validates the competitive advantage true open standards generate.
The HUGE question is if Microsoft will try and pull some patent / IP protection / royalty stunt with C#. We need to have some lawyer go over the C# license, standards doc, patent agreement to see if Microsoft has given up it's rights to sue for patent infrignment if people develop competing implementations.
My feeling is that if it becomes clear that C# is a truely open standard, that it will be suprisingly succesfull. Despite what Java zealots like to claim, the underlying technology is good. And while I initially was a member of the Java lobby, their eternal harping on the "eventual" standardization of Java turned me off. Java is not an open standard, and for an underlying technology that every company can feel comfortable going with (including Microsoft) that fact is problamatic. And Sun has already pulled a couple of students with Java and royalties on the enterprise level etc. We're getting competing implementations already with go-mono.net for C#.
The problem Microsoft faces is that they really need to totally convince folks (aka with binding legal agreements) that they are making this a real open standard and aren't going to pull a patent protection bogosity on anyone. They face in this case the facts of their history, which is horrible. I'm frankly concerned a bit less about the embrace and extend side of things, though it would be nice if they didn't pull stunts in that area either.
Anyways, if Microsoft does it well, C# could really take off. The key is schools. Java is the it language now, and that matters more than people think. If you start with java you become familiar with Java IDE's, you become familiar with other Java projects, and when the time comes to whip up your first website you'll pick java which means when you deceide to make a big website, you'll probably choose Java as well. People will choose whats comfortable, not what is necessarily technically superior and the decisive moment for comfort is what you are forced to learn in high school and college.
Pure OO was thought up by the creators of smalltalk, like Alan Kay. Java isn't even pure OO in the same sense that smalltalk is.
What?
"Microsoft has successfully planted and nurtured the seed in people's heads that just because it isn't supporting Java in Windows XP, Java is dead"
I don't think MS had much to do with it. Sun and a seemingly large segment of the Java community and many industry pundits made a big stink about XP not including Java. I don't recall MS saying much one way or the other except saying you could download a JVM from their site. The Java community themselves planted this seed of doubt.
"As you know, Java has not made any significant headway in this space due mainly to its awfully slow Swing implementation. While the recent release of JDK1.4 has brought significant performance gains, it's still nowhere near the speed of its native Windows applications with respect to fast, snappy responses"
I'm not going to say Sun should open source Java, but for heaven's sake, make a GUI toolkit that doesn't suck. You can't cite Java's 'newness' as an excuse anymore.
However little you think of VB (especially VBScript) MS has provided a huge number of tools to make development easy and painless - and the results are often decent. I remember being able to put together *simple* VB data collection forms back in 94-95 without having too much idea what the hell I was actually doing. There STILL nothing like that for Java. - Go ahead, flame away. I'm not a hardcore Java guy, but someone else here at the office is, and we constantly see shortcomings. That's not to say there's not strengths too, but still shortcomings. Open sourcing Java *MIGHT* help overcome many of those shortcomings (especially in the GUI toolkit area).
I keep repeating this on various boards - if Sun was serious about getting Java to the masses, they'd carpet bomb the hell out of the US with CDs ala AOL with the latest JVM for multiple platforms. That they DON'T do this speaks volumes. Better yet - get AOL to bundle it on their CDs and have an installer with lots of nice Java packages - an 'intro to Java' for the common man. Explain the cross-platform benefits, etc. - something my mom could understand.
creation science book
Looks like the site is starting to bog down, so here's a mirror if need be.
--It's Pimptastic!--
It has APIs for everything from speach to distributed computing.
;-)
Excluding spell checking APIs, that is
Myth #6.
Despite the hoopla over Mono, its not likely that
Myth #7 Java needs the desktop to succeed
Not so. Java's greatest success to date has been on the server, powering servlets and
Myth #8.
Um, well yeah, as long as they are singly-inherited languages that don't have pointers and don't support any unique features, I guess that statement is true. Otherwise you are really looking at a bunch of languages whose features are the same and only differ by syntax(unless they don't support all of
Java is five years ahead in this game, has widespread corporate acceptance, and the deciding factor is the server, where Microsoft is still way behind. If this is a horse race, my money is on Java.
No, Thursday's out. How about never - is never good for you?
Microsoft benefits in two big ways: the hoards of Windows application developers will make the switch from Visual C++ to C#.NET, because of C#'s incredible versitility and cross-platform capabilities. Non-Windows developers (both C++ and Java) will start using C#, because it can do everything that C++ and Java could do, with the added bonus of being very Windows-friendly. Microsoft's third-party developer base expands. They gain further entry into the internet services world that they very much want to take over.
Interestingly enough, as good as this is for Microsoft, C# and .NET may (perhaps) be a blessing in general to the world of computing by introducing the first *truly* write-once-run-anywhere development platform.
dinner: it's what's for beer
One example of the author's cluelessness is that he touts the Halcyon solution - which is implemented in Java. This is supposed to show Java's vulnerability how?
The rest of his "myths" are just as insightful..i.e. a bunch of crap. ;-)
Where was SWT in this discussion for instance? Where was the discussion regarding millions of Java-enabled devices in the marketplace? Where was the discussion of Javas total dominance in application servers right now (perhaps .Net will make a dent, but it remains to be seen).
Then the author gives forth with:
"We have a beautiful language here in Java; it has achieved industry-wide support and is pushing forward with great velocity. What can we do to support it?"
For a start, perhaps NOT writing clueless, FUD-filled articles that completely exaggerate the threat of C# to Java... Many, many Java users are going to be very slow to move to a Microsoft proprietary solution...and make no mistake about it, .Net is Microsoft proprietary. Only the C# language and the CLR runtime have been submitted to ECMA and those make up a tiny subset of .Nyet (sorry, couldn't resist doing that at least once!).
Galileo: "The Earth revolves around the Sun!"
Score: -1 100% Flamebait
You can get a copy of the source to a CLI implementation which also includes a C# compiler that can run on XP and FreeBSD, here.
From the link:
-c
I have discovered a truly remarkable proof which this margin is too small to contain.
Quality, performance, value; you get only two, and you don't always get to pick.
I started learning Java during the great Java hype (1997). Then I went back to school to learn C. My initial impression was, why would anyone want to program in this unweildy language where your executables crash with weird errors like "Segmentation Fault" and "Core Dumped". I did not like all that pointer crap and the fact that you hade to declare your variables before you did anything else.
... each have their own attractions and turn offs. C# is something I haven't approached yet. But like dating, it just broadens your outlook (not to mention the fact that it is fun).
Four years of college and several programming languages later Java is still my best girl. But I have learned to appreciate the beauty of C and its need to be a control freak in some cases.
To solve the debate, I am going to quote the words of one of my professors. "A programming language is a tool in a tool box". There are several things wrong with that analogy. I tend to think that a programming language is like a woman and learning one is like dating.
Im my 5 year 'dating' life I dated more languages than girls. Perl, Python, Tcl, C
There should be not be fear of a new programming language. It is the new girl in town. It is true that one has to be wary that C# is a Microsoft baby. If it turns out that you cannot use C# without paying MS big bucks and the returns are not justifiable there are always other alternatives to look to.
When I was a sophomore, I was scared when some senior started talking about C++. I thought, another language. Oh no. But once you have mastered the basics of what I referer to as the dating game, you can romance almost any girl. Even if it was the girl with red hair and pierced ears (Perl) or the one that you can't take your eyes off of (Scheme).
.NET platforms will win over from java because .NET compilers to .EXE and .DLL files which look and seem to work just like the ones you are used to.
Of course they are completely and utterly different behind the scenes, but that one simple fact makes .NET seem familier but new and exciting, and not at all like all those scary java .class files.
Ok, so I exagerate, but I think that having .EXE and .DLL files really WILL make a lot of difference to how people percieve this platform.
Sig is taking a break!
In 1995 Java had substantial advantages over the then-dominant languages. Today I see no compelling reasons for Java developers to jump ship to C#/.NET (and one big reason not to).
How to solve most of our problems: 1.Lots of nuclear plants. 2.Cure aging.
There is one good reason that Java will never go away, JAVA Rules!
I notice that you only compare Java to C and C++..
Sure, it's better than Stroustrup's train wreck in a lot of ways, but I notice very little enthusiasm for Java among people who already knew a superior OO language, such as Smalltalk.
What you say about OO is true, but Java isn't a very good example.
-jcr
The only title of honor that a tyrant can grant is "Enemy of the State."
News for Geeks in Austin, TX
I seriously doubt it. All major metrics such as adoption in companies, teaching in education, and adoption by programmers suggests it is continuously growing. Furthermore, the only potential competitor on the market is C# which, while not an inferior clone, is a clone. Jumping languages is a hard task. C# will capture the windows client development market and the microsoft people who never adopted Java in the first place. It is hard to see what will compell people already in the Java camp to move to C#.
The language is awkward and unexpressive; its main appeal seems to be in preventing stupid programmers from doing things their brains can't understand (like multiple inheritance). But we all know that you cannot prevent the programmer from writing bad code. OK, pointer safety and garbage collection is useful, but c'mon, practically every other language apart from C and C++ has this too, and C++ is pretty safe if you program it carefully and use the STL.
You can succesfully prevent coders from being stupid. The difference between C and Java is that you have to be an expert to write good C code; you have to be an expert to write bad Java code. What you want from a language is a language that maps well to architectural models so that your architects are making the decisions, not your immature and inexperienced code monkeys. Java is that language. C# is almost that language.
And the libraries: urgh. They all seem to be designed by committee and make QBASIC look elegant. The standard date library for example, or database access.
The libraries, in general, are actually quite well designed. Especially the database access API. The problem is, novice coders don't generally understand that there are things like non-western calendaring systems, multi-byte character sets, and alternate forms for displaying dates. These libraries make sure such novice programmers do not code a company into a box.
Java claims to be cross-platform, but it only does this by creating a whole new platform on top which has to be installed first. And the JDK is one of the least portable programs you'll find on a modern system. As for being vendor independent: don't make me laugh. Java is just as dependent on Sun as Windows is on Microsoft
There is no way to get cross-platform behavior without installing a virtual machine. Whether you call that VM a browser, an emulator, or a VM is irrelevant. And Java really has no dependence on Sun. It is much more dependent on IBM than Sun.
Java has succeeded because it solves real programming issues for large-scale software development.
You are moderated as TROLL.
... unfortunatly the moderation system has no option: WRONG or a option BULLSHIT.
...
...
.NET?
... err ... Java, I guess.
... Oracle 9i ... well there are hundrets of implementations of SUNs APIs.
.NET is running ... I give you 50% of my SUN shares.
If I would metamoderate you I would say: unfair.
But the bullshit you wrote deserves a TROLL rating
I agree that Java is on the way out. The language is awkward and unexpressive;
As unexpressive as you can be with out templates (fixed in the next java releas, 1.5 will have templates) and without operator overloading(like using * for dereferencing iterators in STL).
the rest is C or C++, so why is it not expressive?
its main appeal seems to be in preventing stupid programmers from doing things their brains can't understand (like multiple inheritance).
a) how often did you use multiple inheritance?
b) are you sure it was the right thing to do in more than 50% of the cases?
c) you ever had a memory leak in C++?
d) you ever had a dangling pointer in C++?
Oh, I'm just asking, 4 things in Java can not happen
But we all know that you cannot prevent the programmer from writing bad code.
And what do you want to say with that? When you started programming you wrote perfect code from your first day I asume.
OK, pointer safety and garbage collection is useful, but c'mon, practically every other language apart from C and C++ has this too, and C++ is pretty safe if you program it carefully and use the STL.
So STL has a garbage collector? As well as Pascal has(other languages)?
But now it comes, the above is only sarcasm
And the libraries: urgh. They all seem to be designed by committee and make QBASIC look elegant. The standard date library for example, or database access.
Seems you have in depth Java programming experiance. And also QBASIC experiance. So in QBASIC it is more easy to acces a ODBC/JDBC/SQL data base than in Java JDBC(a API/library you claim is designed by commitee)?
I think only PHP and Perl are easyer in data base accessing than Java. Oops, I forgott SQL.
Java claims to be cross-platform, but it only does this by creating a whole new platform on top which has to be installed first.
And? is that a drawback or what? What does
What did the UCSD P-system? But more interesting: what would be your approach?
And the JDK is one of the least portable programs you'll find on a modern system.
This claim is very interesting as the only part of the JDK which is vendor or platform specific is the VM. The compiler and all tools are written in
As for being vendor independent: don't make me laugh. Java is just as dependent on Sun as Windows is on Microsoft. Even other people like IBM who have their own JVMs have to license the code from Sun.
What a laugh. IBM has licensed NOTHING from Sun, why should they?
Probably they have licensed the SUN standard libraries, why not? Much easyer then writing 32MB source code for your self.
The licence for J2EE seems to forbid using it for any purpose whatsoever: I don't know whether you have to 'purchase' the commercial version from Sun, but it can't be cheap.
I suggest two things:
a) reading the SUN licenses
b) downloading the stuff, its for free, as in beer.
Your customer can download it as well. And most stuff like JRE can be redistributed with your own stuff, for FREE. No special license required.
In fact Java is less vendor-neutral than Windows, since the Wine project seems to have done a better job of cloning the Win32 API than the various free Java projects have with the JDK and libraries. (Not to diss the work these projects have done: but there's just so much of it.
Well, you gave the reasons why FREE solutions failed so far. The point is: FREE is a political or ideological term. The free as in libre is simply not interesting for 90% of the java users. They only need free as in beer or free as in java community lisence.
And every new release brings another set of 'standard' APIs for which the only existing implementation is Sun's.)
Plain wrong: tomcat, JBoss, Jetty, Orion, BEA Web Logic, WebSphere, HPs XYZ, Sonys XYZ, Soniq MQ
Java has succeeded by marketing and not for technical reasons. Microsoft is better than Sun at marketing, so C# will win.
-- Ed Avis epa98@doc.ic.ac.uk
I disagree. As soon as you can call me with a mobile phone on which C# and
Regards,
angel'o'sphere
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
By Way Of Example: This article, the strangely prophesied Unix Isn't Dead, and this booster for the next version of Windows.
Although I might be paranoid to wonder about this, it would be a pretty impressive use of grassroots resources. It seems like what they're doing is writing articles that cast doubt on the official Microsoft position. These articles naturally become (in a free spirited discussion site) a thread with some people defending MS and some people attacking it, which provides an excellent position for posting Microsoft's stronger arguments which then reach open-minded developers.
Anyways, it's an amusing thought. :)
Lisp OO systems are even more different, as they have no methods, but they deal with base types just fine. Instead of methods they have functions, with overloading similar to C++ -- except, unlike C++, all type checking and dispatching is done at runtime, not compiletime. In fact, this isn't that much different from other OO systems -- they all boil down to calling a normal function, where that function is determined by the type of one or more of the arguments.
The problem with Java is that it is statically typed. Whether dynamicism beyond static typing is necessary for OO is less clear, but Smalltalk is more dynamic than Java in more ways than just typing -- it also makes things like proxy classes very easy (also used heavily in Objective C). But that's just cool, I don't know if it's necessarily OO.
Actually, I'm not so sure I buy into this. From where I'm standing, it is still very hard to get clients updated quickly to the latest bleeding edge Java (no thanks to Microsoft's desktop dominance), so I don't see how Java is not moving as fast as it could be. Are you keeping track of all the specs and extensions they churn out? RMI, EJB, CORBA, JDBC, XML support, Servlets and JSP, JDO, Mail libraries, JNDI libraries, LDAP libraries, 3D graphics support, now they even have a serious Java Gaming push! Java seems to be moving very fast to me.
Just wanted to quote that because I wholeheartedly agree. C# is primarily a migration path for *MS developers* to step into a world which until now J2EE has been the sole citizen. Of course MS is going to hype it if it can detract from Java, but that's just extra. And frankly, I'd rather see MS software written in C#/CLR (which is actually a decent architecture, with security, etc.) than C and C++.
It's 10 PM. Do you know if you're un-American?
Portability of code to many platforms is a major consideration at the server level, particularly if you can only have one server at a time. If it runs right on one standards-conforming server, it should also run right on another standards-conforming server, with no nasty surprises. The realistic choices are COBOL, PL/I, ADA, and Java provided Sun can keep everybody from screwing up the language. That's of course assuming that the stuff on the server is actually important.
I don't recall MS saying much one way or the other except saying you could download a JVM from their site. The Java community themselves planted this seed of doubt.
Yeah, but the friggen Java download is 6 MB's! (So I've heard.) That's nothing for corporate users on broadband connections, but when you're trying to appeal to Joe Consumer surfing the web with his modem at home, with an attention span of maybe 20 seconds, he's not going to be patient enough to sit through a 30 minute download just so he can view your site. More than likely, he's gonna keep on surfing.
If broadband had 80% saturation with consumers, then maybe it wouldn't be a big deal. But I'd bet large amounts of money that this is Micros~1's plan, to push Java into irrelevancy by making it difficult to use. They couldn't own it via their embrace and extend strategy, so they're attacking it by slieghting it.