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China Plans Moonbase
jfruhlinger writes: "According to this BBC news article, the Chinese government plans to put a human on the moon by 2010, with the long-term goal of 'set[ting] up a base on the moon and min[ing] its riches for the benefit of humanity.' The article seems to think that the program is more for the benefit of China's defense and aerospace industry. D'ya think they can pull it off?"
They should switch to democracy instead!
I wonder what would happen if China offered the US participation in the program. It probably would not happen but if China is serious about benefiting the whole of mankind (?) they should consider such an offer.
"Can they pull it off"
I hope so. Perhaps this is the start of the second space race?
It would not necessarily be a bad thing if the US government thought China might successfully build a moon base. Perhaps there would be more serious initiatives to encourage more space exploration and development on this side of the Pacific.
Hey, it worked with Sputnik...
Funny, yes, but realistically, what riches are there to be mined on the moon? And if there are riches, they would have to be pretty valuable to justify throwing a rocket and a mining mission to the moon to collect them. ~my $.02
I don't give a damn who pulls this sort of thing anymore, as long as I get to see it in my lifetime. I'm sick of waiting for cool things to become profitable before actually being done. I can't believe that the ISS is still being built, although it has had some very close shaves in the US Congress over the past few years, all because of fucking money. What's so difficult about kicking the secretary's personal assistant's secretary's page off of the government payroll, stopping the spending on idiotic pork projects and $6,000 curtains (thanks Asscroft), and just using the tax money to do things that our decendents will look back at and say, "Bitchin'?"
Actually, 1kg of iron mined and made into satellite parts on the moon plus the difference in processing costs (to earth creation is equal in value to 1 kg of iron similarly processed on earth *plus* the value of the propulsion system cost differential to loft it into space. If you can live on the moon cheaply enough, things get rather valuable there simply because they are easier to loft into outer space.
Even if the manufacturing costs are higher, the military position (uphill on the gravity well compared to earth) could only be beaten by orbital systems backed up by asteroid and orbital mining/manufacturing.
...if 1.5 billion people say they say they are gonna do it, they will.
Be it in business, life, current affairs -- whatever the situation. It's almost ingrained into the Chinese worldview. This has been shown time and time again, through the projects that have been completed and/or worked upon, in China. The Great Wall and The Three Rivers Gorge are the first two obvious examples that come to mind; the manmade Kunming Lake elicits the same thoughts, as well.
Now, I'm not saying these tasks are/were not costly, both in terms of dollars and human lives, nor am I saying that many (especially current) Chinese projects are without corruption and/or controversy.
Rather, what I am pointing out is the historical Chinese trend of "progress" against odds. I don't really want to use the term "determination", because there is certainly the very real possibility that people work on these things against their will. Yet in any case, foreigners who've worked there on corporate projects for a while will tell you that, when working with a Chinese corporation, while they may promise you something seemingly outrageous... but short of a few exceptions, they won't promise you something they can't/won't complete.
The aforementioned exceptions are, however, predictably tied to corruption, where unwilling corporate heads -- or even middle management -- can very easily tie up a project with red tape, unless there's a little cash to "oil the wheels". If China's going to build a moon base, this corrupt undercurrent, in my opinion, is the most likely stumbling block. (As an aside this goes for the 2008 Olympics, too. After just getting back from Beijing a few weeks ago, I will be most amazed if they solve, at least to a large degree, the pollution problem, as they have promised.)
In most cases, however, while a project may take 10, 20, or two hundred years, the Chinese have historically tended to accomplish any goal that they've set out to do.
Again, it's all in the mindset... a "slow but steady" one, at that. Westerners tend to think in short, digestible timeframes. "Project ABC has to be completed in X months." The Chinese, on the other hand, look at things across a much, much larger timetable. What's a hundred years, when you've been around for several-thousand, already?
Granted, in a modern world, this opens the door to corruption and inefficiency... but how many of those "really cool projects", on which you've spent countless hours at work, have gotten tossed into the circular file because they were deemed too costly or too time-inefficient by the corporate heads?
So they say they'll have a moon base? I really don't doubt it. It may not happen in my lifetime, or yours... but it will probably happen, nevertheless.
I think you're seriously underestimating 1960s tech.
Actually, the Saturn V was better, cheaper (per lb of payload) and about as reliable as the Space Shuttle. The only big failure (ignoring Apollo I) was Apollo 13, and that wasn't a launch vehicle failure.
It also launched much more payload than the Space Shuttle can; the Space Shuttle simply can't reach the moon because of this.
-WolfWithoutAClause
"Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"If the title was "US to build Moon base", 90% of the discussions would be related to technical issues, and similar things.
When the title is "China to build Moon base", 90% of the discussions are related to 'communists', 'stealing technology', 'human rights'. I presume, most of the people have never been to China.
Couldn't people stop 'stealing technology' stories for a moment (think US would have nukes if they haven't *stolen* German scientist and research?), and talk about feasibility of this project, no matter who does it.
There are so many sites dealing with politics - don't turn Slashdot into another one.
Technically it's an orbiter. Economically, it's a disaster.
-WolfWithoutAClause
"Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"Don't you think it's kinda double standards ?
Only if you use a race based standard, like the theme of your poost.
The USA blocks China mainly because of their overt statements that they want to destroy the US and some of our allies, like Taiwan.
We had an embargo on Japan when they were saying similar things pre-WWII.
Besides, even those efforts wained during the Clinton administration, with plenty of US payloads and US rocket technology launching from China for Irridium.
Hope this helps you.
Eve Fairbanks says I drive a hybrid!LOL
As always, the essential question is why. Prestige only gets you so far. Notice that after mankind proved it could be done in 1969 - 1974, we just plain stopped. Know why? We'd gotten all the scientific information we could reasonably have gotten, it was very dangerous, and very expensive. So now we have to ask why and look for deeper responses, an actual purpose to flying out into space. What possibly could be done on the moon that couldn't be done right here, or perhaps on our money pit noisemaker, the Int'l Space Station (ISS)? I strongly suspect the answer is nothing.
Speaking in a larger, world exploration of space sense, couldn't we get more scientific gain by sending out many, many more satellites equipped with finely engineered sensors? I know our human nature makes us feel that if there's not a biped there we haven't really experienced it, but putting a base on the moon, landing on mars, doing deep space exploration, etc - these are all things that become exponentially cheaper if we decide to send machines instead of people to do it.
Before we went to the moon it held an air of mystery for us. But when we got there we found it was just a big dusty gray rock, and so our fascination was with ourselves with succeeding in getting there, not with the destination itself. People who dream of moonbases fail to realize that it'll never happen. It's like going to a far-away island - anything you need you have to bring with you. Food, housing, any and all equipment to do anything - it's ridiculous and there's no reason for it. We'll also never practice interstellar travel, or likely even get beyond Mars & Venus as humans, mainly due to the gamma ray problem. And will it be worth it? For science, yes. But not for any practical purpose.
The only tool you've got against psychosis is experience.
It might be a whole lot easier to accomplish getting somebody to the moon to live if you didn't have to worry about getting them back. I'm willing to believe that the Chinese would send people up to the moon with supplies to attempt to set up a moon base, and keep sending them more stuff, but not worry about the return trip, at least not right away. Send 3 guys up with O2, food, water, and equipment to process lunar dust and rock to extract O2. Use the weight budget that would have been used for a return trip for more survival supplies. Send up resupply rockets. Once the people on the moon have had a chance to experiment on the lunar dust and get a better idea of what would work (perhaps dying in the process), send more people with better equipment. Keep sending people. Don't worry - those who died on the moon did so in the firm belief that they were paving the way for those who followed. They'd be heros on the ground.
The dynamics are way different if you are willing to accept casulties.
...phil
"For a list of the ways which technology has failed to improve our quality of life, press 3."