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Eldred Attracts Heavyweight Supporters

dipfan writes: "Opening briefs have now been filed with the Supreme Court for the Eldred v Ashcroft copyright case, arguing that the Sonny Bono Copyright Term Extension Act is unconstitutional. The anti-extension case has attracted some big name supporters, including Intel, and Nobel prize winning economist Milton Freidman, who argue it is "highly unlikely that the economic benefits from copyright extension" outweigh the additional costs, and that copyright extension reduces consumer welfare. (Previous coverage of the case on /. here and here)"

31 of 230 comments (clear)

  1. I love it by marshac · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "Congress shall have the power... To promote the progress of science and the useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors, the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries."

    So a limited time will now far exceed several generations. I can totaly see how this will benefit all the people of the good 'ol USA.

    Economic recovery, here we come!

  2. If ever there was a case that should win. by dinotrac · · Score: 5, Insightful

    If this doesn't prevail before the Supremes, then all hope may be lost.

    The copyright extension can't reasonably be argued to server any Constitutionally argued purpose. After all, to be extended, the works in question had to be produced.

    Absent a time machine, how do you encourage the creation of something that's already been created?

    The only thing you can do is negate the other side of the deal: transfer of your work into the public domain.

    This is not even an issue of being for or against intellectual property. Congress used its Constitutinally provided powers to grant intellectual property to authors, but demanded consideration in return. That consideration was placement of works into the public domain after the author or subsequent copyright holder had been granted an adequate opportunity to exploit the work.

    We have delivered on our end of the bargain. The copyright holders must deliver on theirs.

    1. Re:If ever there was a case that should win. by gowen · · Score: 4, Funny
      If this doesn't prevail before the Supremes, then all hope may be lost.
      Is easy to win the Supremes over, just before they make a bad decision shout:

      "Stop! In the name of Love
      Before you break my heart"


      How could they resist...
      --
      Athletic Scholarships to universities make as much sense as academic scholarships to sports teams.
    2. Re:If ever there was a case that should win. by Ian+Bicking · · Score: 3, Informative
      Disney can't bribe them with money for their reelections, but it can bribe the Justices with money for their pockets. It's already been done -- Thomas' wife worked on the Bush campaign (no doubt a lucrative job) and he was a deciding vote in Bush v. Gore.

      That he didn't recuse himself shows a very serious lack of integrity among the Justices. Who knows what conflict of interest they'll allow next?

    3. Re:If ever there was a case that should win. by Col.+Klink+(retired) · · Score: 3, Informative

      > how do you encourage the creation of something that's already been created?

      This is addressed nicely in the ecomomists' brief. The Disney argument might go like this: "if we get this windfall, we'll spend it on new creative projects."

      The economists point out that if a profit-maximizing corporation had a potentially profitable project, they could seek funding from banks or investors. If the corporation has more money than profitable projects, they should invest those excess resources on something else.

      A starving artist, they acknowledge, might not be able to get the same kind of investment that Disney can get. But for the starving artist to get anything out of extension, they would have to already own a copyright that was about to expire. And that, they point out, is unlikely.

      --

      -- Don't Tase me, bro!

    4. Re:If ever there was a case that should win. by gdyas · · Score: 3, Funny

      Is easy to win the Supremes over, just before they make a bad decision shout:

      "Stop! In the name of Love
      Before you break my heart"

      Actually, no. That song's not in the public domain, and thus you'll have to be fined on the spot & beaten with Diana Ross's weave.

      --

      The only tool you've got against psychosis is experience.

    5. Re:If ever there was a case that should win. by Ian+Bicking · · Score: 5, Informative
      From this article:
      Justice Clarence Thomas had an even more serious conflict of interest which violated federal law. His wife, Virginia Lamp Thomas, was (and is) gathering and processing applications for the Bush cabinet. Perversely, a Bush spokesman implied the charges were nothing more than veiled sexism. "Like many professional women, Mrs. Thomas should not be judged by her spouse," he said.

      Mrs. Thomas, a former Republican Congressional aide, works for the Heritage Foundation (www.heritage.org). The conservative think-tank first made its first real mark in 1981 when it's Mandate for Leadership was adopted as the "bible" of the incoming Reagan Administration. Since then, the Heritage Foundation has been a cornerstone of Republican presidencies, strongly influencing everything from domestic policy to national security to the very structure of the government itself.

      It also happens to enjoy a revolving-door relationship with US intelligence. Its Board of Trustees includes: Richard Mellon Scaife, the right-wing billionaire and Reagan-era propagandist who has personally bankrolled most of the "Clinton Scandal" industry; Holland H. Coors, beer heiress and trustee of the Adolph Coors Foundation, which helped fund the Contra war; Midge Dector, former chair of the anti-communist Committee for a Free World; and Frank Shakespeare, who served as Reagan's ambassador to the Vatican during the Lodge scandal, and director of Radio Free Europe.

      In her own job at the Heritage Foundation, Mrs. Thomas has solicited resumes "for transition purposes" from the government oversight committees of Congress. By press time, no fewer than eight of Bush's top cabinet designees have worked for or have ties to the Heritage Foundation.

      Despite all this, Mrs. Thomas sternly told the NY Times, "There is no conflict here." She explained that because she "rarely discusses" Court matters with her husband, there was no reason for Justice Thomas to recuse himself from the landmark Bush cases.

      But again, the federal statutes are crystal clear that it is the relationship itself and not whether any "discussions" take place that determines when a justice is required to recuse himself. Despite the clear-cut violation, of course, Justice Thomas heard the case and voted with the majority in favor of his wife's ultimate patron.

      So, to summarize: I don't know how much money she was making. But she was making money from a highly political job, where Bush's presidency would have a considerable impact. As someone else pointed out, Scalia's son was in a similar position.

      That Thomas and Scalia should have recused themselves is absolutely obvious to me. And I don't say that just that it's Bush involved and I dislike him (as an aside, I never liked Gore either). The fact is that the court acted disgracefully in a very important ruling. You can't forget that -- it's not just the effect of the ruling, but that they have revealed that on truly tough cases (not just subtle, but personally tough for those Justices) they will not act fairly. They do not deserve respect, and they do not deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt. They only deserve that when there is no evidence to the contrary, but evidence has been presented, and we need to look at the evidence whenever it's present.

      (Besides this, the volunteer premise is false: Bush's campaign was flush with money. What may have appeared to be volunteer work seldom was. Lots of people worked on that campaign for purely monetary reasons. Get-out-the-vote door-to-door campaigners were being done by employees. Phone soliciters were payed. Everyone was on the payrole. It was not some grassroots campaign done by true supporters. It was a corporate campaign, from top to bottom, for a corporate president. Sure, it had the appearance of legitimacy, but corporations learned to fake that a long time ago.)

  3. GNU files amicus curiae brief by jdavidb · · Score: 5, Informative

    Also, the FSF filed a "friend of the court" brief, though if, like me, you are not a lawyer, you might rather just read the press release.

  4. Good quote by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Eben Moglen's brief for the FSF has a great quote:

    ``Actually, Sonny [Bono] wanted the term of copyright protection to last forever.''
    --Rep. Mary Bono
    144 Cong. Rec. H9951 (daily ed. Oct. 7, 1998)

    1. Re:Good quote by AndroidCat · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Actually, Scientology wanted Sonny [Bono] to want the term of copyright protection to last forever. Otherwise Hubbard's stuff would eventually leak out into public domain. (Some already has due to slip-ups.)

      Although there were rumours that Sonny wanted out shortly before he went eXtreme tree-skiing.

      --
      One line blog. I hear that they're called Twitters now.
    2. Re:Good quote by MadAhab · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Which is why it should be obvious that "forever" or Valenti's "forever minus a day" show the *INTENT* of granting copyright for UNLIMITED terms, which are, specifically, unconsitutional.

      Sure, it brings US copyright law more into harmony with Euro laws, but then again, Europeans have a history of supporting hereditary privilege, which is what "70 years past the death of the author" amounts to. It creates a trust fund for a select few to inherit, a privilege which they did nothing to earn, and it burdens current creators and entrepeneurs with supporting the children of their predecessors. To paraphrase Jefferson, it is a debt levied on the living by the dead. It's a very un-American and anti-democratic viewpoint. The addition of Milton Friedman's name should be a sign that being a rabid capitalist doesn't mean favoring corporate welfare of this sort; the CTEA takes away from the public domain and gives to the corporations without expecting anything in return.

      For the record, I have less of a problem with long terms on works for hire, but the next thing they'll try is "Copyright for as long as the corporation exists", clearly unconsititutional.

      --
      Expanding a vast wasteland since 1996.
  5. I hope copyright extensions get repealed by Black+Aardvark+House · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I have debated this hot topic on the Napster Forum at great length, with people ranging from typical ranters to a small record label owner.

    The biggest issue I have is with the duration of copyright. Originally set to last 14 to 28 years from date of creation, it now stands as 95 years from the death of the copyright owner. The latest lengthening (the Sonny Bono Act) might have to do with strong lobbying from Disney, as Mickey Mouse would have lost its copyright in 2004. And to extend it again, 20 years at a time only takes a mere act of Congress.

    On one hand, I'd like to see creators get just rewards for their work. But I disagree with a near-eternal guarantee, that might stifle creation in the future because current creative minds can rest on their laurels. In other words, they can stop working and continue to enjoy a revenue stream, while I need to keep working to get my next paycheck.

    --

    I am the evil aardvark!

    1. Re:I hope copyright extensions get repealed by Tackhead · · Score: 5, Insightful
      > If something IS so awe-inspiring that it'll really stand the test of time for ninety years, *shrug* I don't have a problem with that, especially with purely artistic works -- there's less public harm in, say, having a nigh-indefinitely copyrighted Mickey Mouse flick than there is in having an indefinitely-patented hypothetical rhinoviral cold vaccine.

      Which raises an interesting question.

      How come our laws are structured so that the guy who cures cancer has to make back his entire investment in 14 years, but RIAA and MPAA get to sponge for 90 years plus the life of the creator?

      If the rationale for these intellectual property "protections" is that they somehow promote innovation and investment, how did we conclude that a fucking cartoon mouse is deserving of 90+ years of protection, but a cure for cancer, only 14?

    2. Re:I hope copyright extensions get repealed by Stonehand · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Well, one's a patent and one's a copyright. Patents might get less protection in general because they cover procedures and systems, which in some cases are useful or even critical for derivative work within a section.

      A writer, for instance, can probably get away with writing quite a bit without deriving from "Snow White", say -- there's nothing, besides constraints on imagination and effort, stopping a writer from designing his own distinct universe. And if they're REALLY creative, the universe might be so distinct that it won't involve axe-wielding dwarves, fair tree-loving elves with bows, and half-height people not named H*bbits to avoid the dreaded Lawyers of Mordor. Worst case? A creative work falls into oblivion, because the author refuses to license it to anybody else at prices that others will accept.

      But systems and methods have to work in reality -- there may not be another satisfactory way around a problem. If, for instance, somebody designs a KSR/RGB Mars-style "treatment" that improves longevity by fixing long-term accumulated genetic damage, restores telomeres, and so forth, then that's a huge amount of IP. Some of the necessary methods may be the only effective solutions. So a long, closely-held patent could be used to throttle potential research in that area. What if, say, a radical anti-"playing God" group set up shell companies to quietly purchase IP, or even set up a biotechnology firm for the sole purpose of blocking applications by winning the research race? Imagine if a group tried to blackmail the world with a patented, 90-year-protected cure to cancer? The threat to society's potential welfare is much worse than that of, say, withholding "Steamboat Willie".

      --
      Only the dead have seen the end of war.
  6. I'm hopeful by jms · · Score: 5, Informative

    I read the opening brief last night and I'm overwhelmed by the quality of the work. The plaintiffs have, over the course of the trial and appeals, clarified and distilled the essence of their case. Their arguments are very persuasive, and the writing is superb.

    This is probably the most important copyright case of our generation. The government has characterized retroactive copyright extension as a "national tradition", and if this case fails, the result will be that Congress will be given the go-ahead to continue the "tradition", and the result will be perpetual copyright. The entire idea of a public domain of ideas will be destroyed.

    Eldred is our last, best chance to prevent perpetual copyright. It's a tremendous effort, the best contemporary legal writing that I've EVER seen. I urge all Slashdot readers to read through the opening brief. It should be required reading for anyone interested in the issues behind copyright extension.

  7. Mickey Mouse is not the issue by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think the core of Eldred's case should focus not on Mickey Mouse, because as Valenti said, who cares if Mikey isn't in the public domain for another 1000 years. The argument should focus on the 10,027 books published in 1930, of which only 174 are still in print. Who is being harmed by these works being put into public domain ? Certainly Disney isn't hurt, nor the owners of the copyrights, since they aren't making any money anyway. We the people, thats who, each year there are less and less readable copies of these books. If these books are not put in the public domain, we are in real danger of loosing them. Project Gutenberg certainly isn't going to spend thousands of dollars to find out who owns a copyright, just to be told, no. As Lessig pointed out, it also stifles creativity, because no derivitive works can be done. He also pointed out two instances where an author has written a piece based on an older work, spent real money to find the copyright holder and been told NO, not, I will licence it to you for X amount of money, but NO. If we allow these extensions to stand, we get Mickey Mouse, if we don't let it stand, we get to preserve a whole body work for all time and we get a whole new body of work, which will never happen otherwise. This lawsuit should really be called Humanity vs Disney.

  8. Siva Vaidhyanathan on the Sonny Bono Act by haaz · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Now I wish I hadn't snipped what Siva said about the Sonny Bono Act from the interview we did! Here it is:

    JH: "In your book, you refer to the DMCA as an example of what you call a "thick" copyright law. Can you explain the difference between "thick" copyright law and a "thin" law?"

    SV: "...One way to measure the thickness of a copyright law is to look at the duration of protection. If works enter the public domain before an author's life expectancy expires, then it's a thin and democratic system. If the duration of copyright protection is absurdly long and potentially indefinite, then it's way too thick.

    "JH: And the DMCA does this?

    "SV: Not exactly. The Sonny Bono Copyright Term Extension Act of 1998, which added 20 years to almost all active copyrights, does this. The Copyright Act of 1976 did this as well, but it took people a while to complain about it. Before THE 1976 ACT, copyright terms were for a fixed amouNt of time: 28 years per term, renewable once. Since the 1976 act, the term has been life of the author plus 50 years, and now 70 years. The Supreme Court will hear a case in the fall about the constitutionality of the Sonny Bono Act. And many of us on the public interest side of copyright debates are hoping that the justices revert to the first principles of American copyright: that copyright is meant to promote creativity and expression, not retard it. Copyright has become corrupted to such a degree that it's now an instrument of censorship, as Dmitri Sklyarov and Edward Felten can tell you."

    -- haaz, who will think twice before snipped for brevity's sake.

    --
    -- haaz.
  9. Who's who by MountainLogic · · Score: 5, Informative
    It just boggles the mind to look at the list of folks filing AMICI CURIAE briefs in the Sonny Bono Copyright Term Extension Act case. Here is just a random sampling of the names:

    Eagle Forum/Phyllis Schlafly

    Milton Friedman

    Hal Roach Studios

    Intel

    Wendell Berry

    Ursula K. Leguin

    Barry Lopez

    Peter Matthiessen

    David Foster Wallace

    National Writers Union

    The United States Public Policy Committee for the Association of Computing Machinery

    Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility

    The Apache Software Foundation

    The Domain Name Rights Coalition

    The Center for The Public Domain

    Public Knowledge, The Digital Future Coalition

    The Public Domain Research Corporation

    The Center for Book Culture

    The Computer and Communications Industry Association

    The Consumer Electronics Association

    1. Re:Who's who by msouth · · Score: 3, Funny

      Yeah, ok, that's impressive, but we're talkin' Sonny Bono here--you're still going to have to come up with some pretty good stuff to counter that powerful a persona--plus he's practically a martyr, since God killed him in that freak accident as a joke about "life of the author plus X years".

      Has Milton Friedman ever had a top ten hit? I didn't think so. Try again, and get us some _real_ names. Get, say Wayne Newton on board, and we'll start paying attention.

      --
      Liberty uber alles.
  10. Re:Problem... by wendy · · Score: 3, Informative
    Eldred's arguments are focused on the retroactive extension, but the petitioners also argue that the provisions are "inseverable" -- if the Court strikes down the extension of existing copyrights, it should strike the whole law, including the extension of future copyrights.

    (The arguments against severability are that Congress wouldn't have passed just the future extension, all the lobbying was for the extension of existing works, and the Court shouldn't be in the business of rewriting flawed legislation.)

    --

    -- Openlaw: Fighting for fair use and the public domain

  11. Re:before DMCA what was there by bnenning · · Score: 3, Interesting

    True, and it makes perfect sense. The DMCA and its buddies are direct assaults on the concept of general purpose computing. If things continue on their present course, it will eventually be illegal for you to open the case of "your" computer, or use it in any other way that Disney or Microsoft disapproves of.

    --
    How to solve most of our problems: 1.Lots of nuclear plants. 2.Cure aging.
  12. Re:Open Petition? by Stonehand · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The justices had better not be swayed by petitions -- their job description includes interpreting the law as it is written, not as how anybody else (including the justices) thinks it should have been written.

    Even if the justices think that a law is a pathetic, weak, idiotic law -- if it's Constitutional and all, they need to uphold it as is. It's the other two branches' job to reflect the populace and consider bending to petitions.

    --
    Only the dead have seen the end of war.
  13. DMCA and technologicly enforced copyright by MSG · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Being NAL as I am, I would like to see some discussion of how limited term copyright is expected to work in a future where copyright is enforced by perpetual technological means.

    As more information is published on digital media, DRM is becoming a means of enforcing the copyright on the information. However, I know of no DRM systems which provide for expriation of protection. So, while the legal protection may go away after the granted term, the data is still protected technologically. I wonder, what are the legal implications of this?

    Copyright was granted on the grounds that after the granted term, the information was to enter the public domain. If the information is designed by the distributors to never enter the public domain, does it still deserve copyright protection? It seems like this is analogous to patents vs. trade secrets where trade secrets have no legal protection because there is no obligation to disclose the way they work. You have to trade one for the other.

    1. Re:DMCA and technologicly enforced copyright by rhadamanthus · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Well, my first inclination is to debate the "perpetual" standing you give DRM schemes. Given time, there is nothing you can do to protect anything heard or seen from being copied, DRM notwithstanding.

      I realize also, however, that thanks to the DMCA, such tactics are now illegal. However, if I remember correctly, fair-use rights imply nothing about tha actual feasability of making said legal copies. I.e., if Sony wants to release musc and movies in a totally new "in-house designed" format which is almost totally impossible to copy, they are welcome to. The problem with that sheme is that past expierience with such products has only lead to miserable failure on the market. No one wants to buy such items.

      It gets worse. Since the majority of the public does not care about the proceedings of this type of legislation/technology, the possiblity of such DRM schemes resurfacing is very alarming. Not necessarily because of the technological implications, but because no one would resist it, thereby leading to its grudging acceptance in the market.

      Your point with regards to copyright protection vs. perpetual protection is well-taken, and I believe you are correct. But I seriously doubt that congress or the courts would make the same distinction with the lobbyists breathing down their necks...


      We might be doomed here.
      --------------rhad
      --
      Slashdot needs to interview Natalie Portman.
    2. Re:DMCA and technologicly enforced copyright by rhadamanthus · · Score: 3, Interesting
      That doesn't make any sense. I don't think you are addressing the same issue at all. Yes, under current law, copyright attaches itself to anything you create, be it an anti-gravity belt or a doodle on a post-it note. However, all copyrights expire after a certain (although unreasonable) length of time. The question is, if you use DRM technology, and couple it with the DMCA, how does a work ever *really* end up in the public domain? When you copyright a work, you agree to be the sole person to benefit from it for the stated length of time, after which the copyright no longer exists (provided it isn't extended or passed along etc.). This is an apparent contradiction. How can a work be both in the public domain, yet still wrapped in DRM technology the DMCA makes illegal to remove?

      --------rhad

      --
      Slashdot needs to interview Natalie Portman.
  14. Re:Do artists benefit? by Stonehand · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Theoretically, they get paid depending on their contracts, without which they shouldn't have transferred copyright. Of course, if there's a conspiracy among the labels to present only highly unfavorable contracts, then there's a bit of a problem.

    The labels, of course, have a huge problem -- the public's tastes can be quite fickle, and advertising a new potential talent is likely quite expensive. Those costs have to be borne by somebody even if the music doesn't sell -- either because it's drek, or because the public simply didn't latch onto it in sufficient quantities to justify costs. I don't know what fraction of artists actually do well enough to justify marketing costs, but if it's low, ugh.

    That means that, realistically, either the labels have to be extremely good at picking (or deliberately building bands -- for instance, composing new boy bands aimed specifically at female pre-teens and early teens, by choosing what they hope are photogenic young males of specific ages, et al, or choosing female artists according to jiggle factor and mid-riff exposure) bands, or artists should be willing to share the costs, because otherwise the marketing machines collapse.

    And without marketing, many obscure artists won't have much of a chance. It may have worked for Wilco, but what happens when there are no major labels and everybody is in the same boat? Then there's no prevailing culture to be "counter-cultural" against; opposing the labels isn't anything special, because there aren't any. That means that bands trying Wilco's approach would no longer be entitled to free publicity because they're trying something different. End result: Probably many bands with smaller audiences and smaller releases driven by word of mouth.

    Keep in mind that nobody's entitled to an income on only their own terms, no matter how much they think they deserve it. If an artist's work is niche, lousy, or underexposed -- then it doesn't matter how much he loves the music. Love != quality or appeal. I'm reminded of the Elaine character on "Seinfeld" -- she loved to dance, but only masochists would have paid to watch her at the Bolshoi. If an artist seems promising enough to get a favorable contract, however, more power to 'im.

    --
    Only the dead have seen the end of war.
  15. Not only Milton Friedman but 5(!) Nobel prizes by sl956 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    From the list of signatories to the brief :

    George A. Akerlof
    Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, 2001

    Kenneth J. Arrow
    Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, 1972

    James M. Buchanan
    Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, 1986

    Ronald H. Coase
    Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, 1991

    Milton Friedman
    Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, 1976

    Impressing!!!

  16. and if the court decides in favor of eldred... by non · · Score: 3, Funny
    i'll be wearing a mickey giving the finger tshirt!


    ___

    --
    ...vividly encapsulates that post-Watergate/pre-punk/coked-up moment when you could trust no one, least of all yourself.
  17. Excellent read on copyright at k5 by jmichaelg · · Score: 3, Informative

    A while back, there was an excellent article on Lord Macaulay's speech to the British Parliament. Macaulay lays out both a solid case for copyright and against unreasonable extensions to copyrights.

    The speech was made over 160 years ago.

  18. Re:The fundamental issue by michael_cain · · Score: 3, Interesting
    At least in law, corporations are "persons" and enjoy many of the same Constitutional rights as "natural persons" like you or me. For example, a piece of land owned by a corporation may not be siezed without the same due process required if the land were owned by a single individual. Corporate "speech," such as an advertising brochure or an anonymous editorial in a newpaper, is provided the same protections as are guaranteed to you or me.

    I believe that the case law establishing that corporations are "persons" goes back to the 1860s when certain railroads were allowed to receive land grants which Congress had promised to "persons" satisfying certain requirements about using the property.

    I do agree with your general sentiment that it is easy for these very rich, very long-lived "persons" to abuse laws intended for mere humans.

  19. DMCA doesn't protect PD works by yerricde · · Score: 3, Informative

    I know of no DRM systems which provide for expriation of protection.

    The Digital Millennium Copyright Act provides no protection against circumvention for works that have fallen into the public domain. From 17 USC 1201: "No person shall circumvent a technological measure that effectively controls access to a work protected under this title" (emphasis by yerricde). Works "protected under this title" include works under a subsisting copyright.

    This means it's lawful to sell DeCSS programs designed to decrypt the pre-1923 content on Charlie Chaplin DVDs. And without copyright term extensions, it would also be lawful to sell DeCSS programs designed to decrypt "Mickey's Early Years" and other pre-1946 content. (Actually, Mickey Mouse cartoons have fallen into the public domain due to a copyright notice flub-up.)

    --
    Will I retire or break 10K?