Eight Technologies That Will Change the World

lostincyberspace writes "This story looks at existing advanced technologies, and contemplates how they may combine in the future to create the technology of 70's TV shows. Sensors + Mobile Power + Biomanufacturing = ... Bionics. ("We have the technology") The most fascinating part is that all of these new technologies seem like they'll be available in the not too distant future."

Comments

Gee-whiz predictions the future tend not to work

[Seth Finkelstein]

I'm always skeptical of any gee-whiz predictions of the future. They tend to have a bad track record , e.g :

The future isn't what it used to be. Take Tomorrowland. When it opened in 1955 as one of the five original sections of Disneyland, Walt Disney himself appeared on the live opening-day telecast and promised "a step into the future with constructive predictions about things to come." He may have been a dull public speaker, but in envisioning "the world of 1987," as it was at one point conceived, he did offer up such astounding attractions as TWA's Rocket to the Moon and Monsanto's all-plastic House of the Future ("Hardly a natural material appears anywhere"). We now know that people still live in wood and brick houses; and that even if TWA did fly to the moon, no one would go because the service would be ghastly; and that if Disney could have given 1950s parkgoers a genuine look at the future, the most amazing thing about 1987 would have been the presidency of Ronald Reagan, ...

Where's my flying car?

But then again, we do have Soma, err, Slashdot :-)

Sig: What Happened To The Censorware Project (censorware.org)

Power Sources?

[TheNecromancer]

Seems to me that this technology is limited, not by what it can do, but by the energy it consumes performing its function. Think about it, the SmartShirt that is talked about has electronics embedded in the fabric, but how is it powered? Current batteries in PDAs don't last very long, and it would be easy enough to replace batteries in the SmartShirt, but what about replacing power cells of electronics embedded in a person's skin? Once we are able to miniaturize powercells enough without sacrificing longevity of power, this field will thrive enormously!

Don't drool, beware! (The Luddite approach)

[juliao]

All of them seem like great things to happen! But are they? Let's take a look...

Biointeractive Material: An idea with a lot of potential, and that may see light sooner than we think. The risk here is reverse interaction, that may allow your shirt to be hacked into heating just a bit too much...

Biofuel Production Plants: They mention the risks themselves: using bio-engineered plants for fuel production may create mutated species that grow beyond our control. And on another issue, growing GMO for fuel will legitimise using GMO for food, won't it?

Bionics: A wonderful potential, but so many risks: yes, it can be use to cure the deaf, and the blind, but as you go on it allows you to replace organs, even to enhance them, and in due time it will allow you to slowly become a bit like a cyborg. It sounds great to me, but maybe it will create even a greater divide between the "have"s and the "have not"s. Will humanity (the poor of the world, their strenght being the numbers) rebel against the cyborgs (the bionic we) someday?

Cognitronics: The greatest of all greats, but... If ir can control, can it be controlled? If it interacts, can you read my mind? It kind of redefines the notion of "0wn3d"...

Genotyping: Hmmm... What was this one good for, again? Too much potential for the wrong things happening...

Combinatorial Science: Wow! At last, a way for the government to find all about life, the universe and everything without having to bother with those pesky scientists and their silly notions of "moral" and "ethics"...! Anyway, anything that is comparable to Excel has to be a bad thing. :)

Molecular Manufacturing: One of the coolest technologies ever. And yet, a great potential for being abused. This effectively removes the limit of scale on anything we build, be it large or small. But the planet isn't large enough for us to start building our private megalopolis and robot armies anytime soon. This had better come true after generalized space travel and colonization.

Quantum Nucleonics: Hmmm.. Boom?

Interesting theme.

[Junta]

Not too long ago, the top list of techs that would change the world were typically all about computers and the internet, focusing on how people interact with each other and get information. The big internet bubble kinda grew out of this whole excitement over computer and internet technology as an end in and of itself rather than a means to another end.

Now it seems like the general populace have tired of thinking of computers and the internet as they did before. This lack of interest and the recession have fed each other to a downward spiral. It seems that now the populace is getting more excited about biotech things, as reflected in this article. e-everything and fast communications got boring, but now people see biotech as having the potential for enhancing and extending life in a very real and pervasive way.

So are we about to see a "biotech" bubble like the "internet" bubble we saw in the past few years? Are bio-engineering, genetics, and biology programs about to reach record high enrollments like computer science and engineering programs saw a few years ago (when the general populace thought computer knowledge = big bucks).

Anyway, though boring to the public in general, botany research could have great impact on our lives. Things like spider silk and insulin from plants, as well as enhancing foods to feed more people could offer further reaching impact than anything mentioned in the article, in terms of reaching third world countries, for example. It's pretty exciting. Before long, they expect to be able to produce enough insulin to supply all the world's diabetic population in a few farms. Pretty cool stuff, just hope this stuff doesn't get lost in the noise of "bionic man" super-hyped research.

Re:Gee-whiz predictions the future tend not to wor

[Untimely Ripp'd]

We now know that people still live in wood and brick houses

Well, yes, but ... Your kitchen cabinets and most of your cheap, assemble-it-yourself furniture are made of particle board (wood fibers glued together in a plastic matrix). Your countertops are particle board and formica if you're a working joe, and Corian if you're a yuppie. Your subfloor -- and your roof sheeting -- are Oriented StrandBoard (wood fibers glued together in a plastic matrix). Your floor is probably "tiled" with either polyurethane or vinyl, and carpeted with recycled polyester. Your exterior walls have an OSB layer (if you're lucky), a polystyrene insulating layer, and more probably vinyl than brick to face the elements. Your bathtub is either acrylic or fiberglass (silica fibers in a polyester matrix). Your deck is quite likely to be either sheathed in plastic, or simply made of plastic. Your couch is upholstered with polyurethane foam covered with polyester fabric. Your patio furniture is, of course, resin (plastic). Your LOTR chess set is resin (plastic). etc.

Re:cognitronics - dangerous?

[Thornae]

Very true - and naturally, David Brin has already written about this. He describes a computer interface called a subvocaliser, which reads your unspoken pre-speech impulses in the larynx before they actually get to the word stage, and is the nearest thing to a direct brain interface you can get.

From my well-thumbed copy of Earth:

"Even the tiniest signal to her jaw or larynx might be interpreted as a command... Few people used subvocals, for the same reason few ever became street jugglers. Not many could operate the delicate systems without tipping into chaos. Any normal mind kept intruding with apparent irrelevancies, many ascending to the level of muttered or almost-spoken words the outer consciousness hardly noticed, but which the device manifested visibly and in sound.
... When invented, the subvocal had been hailed as a boon to pilots - until high-performance jets began plowing into the ground. We experience ten thousand impulses for every one we allow to become action. Accelerating the choice and decision process did more than speed reaction time. It also shortcut judgement.
...If they ever really developed a true brain-to-computer interface, the chaos would be even worse.
... Imagine giving a machine like this to young, libidinous, hormone-drenched male pilots! Of all the silly things to do."

Written in 1988, set in 2038, Earth is probably the best 50 year prediction of the future I've ever read. Brin actually extrapolated from the state of usenet at the time of writing to predict something that looks very much like our present www (only with more discussion and less ads. He was out by about 45 years there...).

While much of the novel may well turn out to be inaccurate, and (much to my concern) overly optimistic, it covers many issues that are just beginning to be recognized as important - privacy, globalization, eco-crimes, and so-on. I'm convinced that his "Sea State" - a floating, multi-boat/raft 'nation' of asylum seekers and the like - is only a matter of time (no, Stephenson wasn't first with this idea - although Brin probably wasn't either).

Of course, the subvocaliser is the nearest Brin actually gets to any of the above-mentioned eight. Instead, there's a heavy focus on Gaia theory - very popular at the time of writing. He also invents a new branch of gravitational science, which I won't spoil for you by expanding upon.

Finally, the book has an excellent postscript in which Brin discusses his basis for many of his extrapolations, and issues he considers likely to arise in the next few decades. Those wanting some entertainment along with their speculation upon the next thirty-six years could do far worse than chasing up a copy of Earth.

(My, that wandered a bit. But it's all relevant. Honest.)