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Winning the E.T. Lottery
Consul writes "Space.com has a cute story about the statistical probabilities that we have been visited by an alien civilzation. He seems to make a convincing argument."
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The problem with this is that analysis like this are simply interesting reading and speculation. Nothing more. Barely science and really not past the hypothesis stage (there is no evidence he is correct).
I can find good arguments for both why or why not other worlds may have life or intelligent life.
-Sean
You have a quarter in your pocket and decide to flip it in the air. It lands with the heads side facing up. You repeat this procedure, and without fail the heads side is always facing up after the quarter lands. You do this ... oh ... 10,000,000 times and every time the heads side is facing up. What is the probability that on the next throw the heads side will be facing up?
... 50%
Are you ready for the answer?
The existence of intelligent life on this planet does not necessarily imply the existence of intelligent life on other plantes. Just because a quarter lands heads up 10 million times does not imply that the next toss will produce the same result.
The existence of life on any planet must be taken as an individual probability just as each individual quarter toss must be taken as an individual probability.
QED
They spice up our water/air/primordial-soup with some pre-life cake mix and then fly away. They tell all their friends to come and visit when they get the chance, you know, just to look in and see how things are going. Well, then we get visited by aliens for the next few billions years (assume they have long life spans, or collective memories).
Seems this scenario gets rid of all of his improbable probabilities.
...And instead gives the improbable scenario of aliens stopping by tens or hundreds of millions of times over the Earth's history. This would take a significant expenditure of resources, to little end (especially since the hypothetical ant-farm alien could have seeded a barren world in their own system or otherwise closer to home for convenient visiting). It would also require lots and lots of patience and dedication that would probably be more entertainingly spent elsewhere.
In summary, I'm doubtful of this scenario.