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Winning the E.T. Lottery

Posted by michael on from the offer-them-reeses dept.

Consul writes "Space.com has a cute story about the statistical probabilities that we have been visited by an alien civilzation. He seems to make a convincing argument."

1 of 80 comments (clear)

  1. Re:Vanishingly small probabilities by TwP · · Score: 4, Informative

    You have a quarter in your pocket and decide to flip it in the air. It lands with the heads side facing up. You repeat this procedure, and without fail the heads side is always facing up after the quarter lands. You do this ... oh ... 10,000,000 times and every time the heads side is facing up. What is the probability that on the next throw the heads side will be facing up?

    Are you ready for the answer? ... 50%

    The existence of intelligent life on this planet does not necessarily imply the existence of intelligent life on other plantes. Just because a quarter lands heads up 10 million times does not imply that the next toss will produce the same result.

    The existence of life on any planet must be taken as an individual probability just as each individual quarter toss must be taken as an individual probability.

    QED