Slashdot Mirror
What, Me Worry?
Space.com dissects (or see the same story on MSNBC, with handy Torino scale graphic) the asteroid scare that's been in the news for the past week, asking some good questions about the roles of the news media and the scientific community. I suppose my take on it is something like this: given that truly insignificant threats to individuals get hyped all out of proportion routinely, at least in this case it was an insignificant threat to the entire planet.
In an attempt to figure out how statistically significant the article's 6-in-a-million chance of the asteroid hitting earth is, exactly, I ran a search on the most popular statistic--the odds of being hit by lightning. Turns out there's even controversy about that. The odds cited range from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 5 million. So was this asteroid statistically significant? Turn to Mark Twain for that one.
The whole "on collision course" phrasing thing was, in my opinion, poor choice of a headline, but news is a product just like any other media item, and sensationalism sells.
"I may be quite wrong." - Socrates
A good discussion of the asteroid/comet collision risk is covered by the Near Earth Object Information Centre's website, which is a not-so-secret agency maintained by the UK government:
/. discussion along similar lines from back in September 2000:
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk
Also of note is a
UK Publishes Asteroid Armageddon Report
When you have nothing left to burn you must set yourself on fire
A few weeks ago, John Stossel of ABC's 20/20 news show did a whole 1-hour special on media hype, exposing truths in things like road rage, car magazine reviews, and terrorism warnings. He also did a "Junk Science" special a few years ago, pointing out large-number scare tactics, hype over medical problems that never existed to begin with, etc.
This story with the asteroid is right up his alley.
The One Rule Of Chess You'll Ever Need: Don't play someone who carries a kit in their bookbag.
It was referred to as DHMO. Dihydrogen monoxide. First mentioned in the Washington Post--here's a link to an article about it, from the same site I posted earlier in the article about misleading statistics.
"I may be quite wrong." - Socrates
http://www.circus.com/~nodhmo/
[From the link above:]
Dihydrogen monoxide:
* is also known as hydroxl acid, and is the major component of acid rain.
* contributes to the "greenhouse effect."
* may cause severe burns.
* contributes to the erosion of our natural landscape.
* accelerates corrosion and rusting of many metals.
* may cause electrical failures and decreased effectiveness of automobile brakes.
* has been found in excised tumors of terminal cancer patients.
See also:
http://www.dhmo.org/
I'm probbaly not the best person to explain this, but:
Classical theory: is the belief that the markets are perfectly in balance, self-correcting, and nothing should be done to disrupt this equilibrium.
Keynsian Economics: Keynes formulated an alternative, arguing that governments should step in with deficit spending in order to boost the economy in times of recession. The theory came from his observation of the Great Depression. His theory was eventually implemented (the great public works projects in the US) and the depression was brought to an end. He is the only economist to have an entire field of economics named after him -- Keynsein Economics.
Monetarist Theory: The failure of Keysian Economics was the stagflation of the 70s. Friedman stepped in with a Nobel prize winning theory -- Monitarist Theory -- that states that inflation is a monetary problem. he came up with the concept of velocity & acceleration of money, and the idea that you could control the supply of money. This is the basis of interest rate adjustments.
This sketchy outline should lead you to sites on the web that'll give a clearer & more complete explanation than I am capable of. I found this site: The Virtual Economy that looks like a good start.
"Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." --Napoleon Bonaparte
I thought the whole asteroid thing was kind of neat, so I made a little box on my web site that grabbed the latest impact data from NASA and shows year of impact, probability of impact, and danger rating.
Here's the (php) code .
"If at first you don't succeed, lower your standards."