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Where's GNU/Linux Usage Headed?

Posted by ryuzaki0 on from the where-will-the-madness-end dept.

deego writes: "Here are the plots of GNU/Linux number of users, on a regular scale , and on a log scale . Though projections have no real bearing on what actually turns out to be the numbers, they are fun :). The final projections from the two plots would seem to be a bit different to the naked eye. So, is GNU/Linx usage asymptotically headed towards, say 'all users' (first plot), or 'half a billion users' (second plot)?"

8 of 298 comments (clear)

  1. Both? by jc42 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    So what are the errror bars on these graphs? It seems likely that they include both asymptotes.

    --
    Those who do study history are doomed to stand helplessly by while everyone else repeats it.
  2. not to mention... by Trepidity · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That using .ps for an image on the web is just dumb. There are already several standard formats for images on the web, PNG being one of the better ones.

    Hell, I'm currently running Mozilla on Debian and it can't even display the .ps (I have to download it and open it in ghostview, which is annoying).

    --
    10 PRINT CHR$(205.5+RND(1)); : GOTO 10
  3. Does anyone else find it depressing... by SlashChick · · Score: 5, Insightful

    ...that since June 2001 (the first month when OS stats were available), that Windows 98 usage has only dropped from 12% (from 55% to 43% of Google users)?

    Windows 2000 and XP have obvious benefits over Windows 98 -- stability being the biggest one, but also a true multi-user OS with protected memory, a real task manager, etc. They also run almost 100% of the existing Windows 98 programs.

    So, if people won't switch off something as flaky as Windows 98 on to 2000 or XP, what makes anyone think that these people will switch to something like Linux (which can't even promise that your old programs will run on it)?

    This isn't a troll... it's something we all need to think about.

    The fact that the majority of people using Google are still using Windows 98 says volumes: even if Windows 98 is flaky; even if Windows 98 crashes or gives weird errors; even if Microsoft makes something better that promises near-100% compatibility with their old programs -- people aren't switching. The question that must be asked is: why?

    --
    Simpli - Your source for San Jose dedicated servers and colocation!
    1. Re:Does anyone else find it depressing... by ergo98 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The fact that the majority of people using Google are still using Windows 98 says volumes: even if Windows 98 is flaky; even if Windows 98 crashes or gives weird errors; even if Microsoft makes something better that promises near-100% compatibility with their old programs -- people aren't switching. The question that must be asked is: why?


      Because switching is an investment of time and money, and if someone has a working computer, why bother? The humorous reality is that Microsoft is their own biggest competitor to people upgrading: Even running Windows 98 you can still run IE 6.0, for example. Of course Microsoft has started to see the satisfaction that people have with their current OS, so things like Media Player are now only coming out in new versions for XP, for instance.


      Personally I find it very hard to believe that as many people use Windows 2000 as Google reports: Windows 2000 is a `professional' OS, and it was never marketed or really sold to the home population (and it's expensive as well), yet 20% of Google users use it? I have to guess that that 20% is mostly corporate users, or developers.

    2. Re:Does anyone else find it depressing... by Quarters · · Score: 5, Insightful
      people aren't switching. The question that must be asked is: why?


      The answer is simple -- The masses view their computers the same way they view their televisions, stereos, and vcrs. They're appliances. They'll use whatever OS comes on the computer they bought up until the day they buy a new computer. Then they'll use the OS that comes on that one, etc...

      Average users aren't geeks. Average users don't care about the pros/cons of a given OS. They just want an OS that will run the shelves of software they see in Best Buy.

  4. Meaningless by KidSock · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I may have been pretty horrible at math but I would feel very confident about walking over and plunking these guys over the head with a big rubber bat for publishing these nonsense plots. Three data points?! Are you kidding me? They obviously freehanded those dotted lines which could have been in the perpendicular direction and maintain the same statistical significance. All these graphs prove is that there are a lot more "gnulinux-users" in 1998 than there were in 1992 and 1993.

  5. Re:GNU/Linux by rasterizerjay · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Uhm, IBM does does that. What's cooler than a cute penguin, a heart and a peace sign?

  6. Re:postscript by guisar · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Be sure to ask yourself this question in reverse the next time you view a web site using Word, Powerpoint, AVI, Quicktime or some other asinine proprietary format to distribute data over the internet. As far as I'm concerned postscript was/is one of the great standard formats- great for printers, great for display and programmable! So of course it's ditched for pdf...

    Justin