File Sharing and CD Sales, Again

Andrew Leonard writes "Stan Liebowitz, an economist studying the effects of file-trading on the music industry, says in an article in Salon that new numbers have convinced him that the decline in CD sales may be partially attributable to MP3 downloading. But he also argues that the decline does not justify draconian new laws."

Comments

Re:Obviously, it does affect CD sales to SOME exte

[GiMP]

> You're always going to have the fellow who likes
> to support artists, and buys original CDs. Catch?
> He now listens to MP3s to sample new albums. He
> doesn't like the sample...he doesn't buy the CD.

This would certainly be me, as are many others.. yes, it decreases sales... but none less then the radio has. The difference is that with the internet, the quality is a little better and you can avoid commercials.

There is also a 4rd group, like my sisters.. they buy the CDs, but download the mp3s because they aren't knowledgable enough to rip & encode their own.

The only sad thing is that there are some who abuse the power and never buy the cds.

Might it possibly be....?

[Newer Guy]

That I and millions of others like me have decided to boycott the RIAA?
Hmmm?

Might we be sick and tired of their power plays and their intrusions into our personal lives?
Hmmmm?

Might we be sick and tired of being called criminals by them?
Hmmm?

Could we be tired of ther inane music they've been producing the past few years?
Hmmm?

Well, My Leibowitz...what do you think??

Re:Obviously, it does affect CD sales to SOME exte

[Russellkhan]

You're always going to have the normal guy who doesn't care about "branded" CDs or the slight (and sometimes perceptible) quality loss of MP3s over CDs...he goes ahead and burns his MP3s to a 5-cent CDR and listens to it anyway.

There's also the guy who uses MP3s to sample new albums but wasn't falling for the "CD as a sample" trap before - he just wouldn't buy a new album if he didn't know it - he'd wait until perhaps he got a chance to hear it as a friend's place, or just do without. This guy actually buy more CDs since MP3s have come along.

Are there enough of these guys to balance the others? I don't know, but there are definitely enough that they shouldn't be ignored as a part of the market.

Russ

Soon-to-be author changes conclusions again

[guttentag]

University of Dallas economist Stan Liebowitz, author of an upcoming book (set for publication Sept. 7) titled "Rethinking the Network Economy," is digging hard for quantitative answers.

In May, Liebowitz published a paper suggesting that the record industry would soon be seriously harmed by MP3s. But in June, by the time Salon caught up with him, he was questioning his own conclusions after having examined the numbers and finding little solid proof that file sharing was hurting CD sales.

Two months later, he's changed his mind again.

As an economist, Liebowitz knows as well as anyone how to sell a book:

1. Examine a controversial issue the perspective of your expertise (it helps if one side of the issue is backed by a very wealthy cast of characters who will do anything to promote their side)
2. Announce that you will be writing the book
3. Announce that you have found "evidence" in favor of one side
4. Announce you were wrong and that you now have evidence to support the other side
5. Change your mind again, announcing that further information has revealed that your first conclusions were correct, just two weeks before the book is published.
6. Now everyone wants to read your book to find out if they've been vindicated.

He studied 30 years of record sales data, and in the three months prior to the publishing of his book, he has found "new evidence" that caused him to fundamentally reverse himself twice? If this guy publishes a book on how to sell books, I might read it, but I won't be reading this one. Who's to say he won't change his mind again in October when he needs the cas^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H finds new evidence?

No, "music from yesterday isn't available"

[tlambert]

No, in fact, music from yesterday *isn't* available for purchase these days, even from Amazon.

As one example, I still can't buy Isao Tomita's "Bolero" album on CD. You can get "Bolero" itself as a single track of a collection (who would want 10 different versions of the same song, just to get the one you wanted?!?), but you don't get "The Mother Goose Suite", "Daphnis and Chloe: Suite No. 2", or "Pavan for a Dead Princess".

As another, I can't get a "Baltimora" album, except as used vinyl (if then); the only thing available on CD is one song, "Tarzan Boy" (good tune, but ruined by the "Listerine" commercial), and it's only available on "Beverly Hills Ninja" or in some *LAME* 80's dance collection (two exceptions: a cover band, and an "Italo" Italian dance CD sold in the U.S.: a *LAME* non-80's dance collection).

Frankly, I'm amaze that "Buffalo Springfield" or Harry Nilsson is available (incredibly hard to find, though).

-- Terry

Audio CD's too expensive for what you get

[MtViewGuy]

I think the biggest problem is the fact in terms of bang for the buck, the audio CD is losing big time.

Think about it for these reasons:

1) Today's videogame consoles cost between US$150 and US$200, but many games give you 30 to 60 hours of fun to play all the way through; in the case of sports games (like the excellent Madden NFL 2003), it's even longer than that. It's that time you spend on the game that makes the relative high cost of a game (around US$40 to US$50) still a pretty good bargain.

2) The DVD has also become a major bargain; you can get pretty good console players for under US$100, and the price of DVD discs (US$20 to US$30 for the latest releases, frequently under US$15 for the older releases) are a bargain considering the content of what you get. The MPAA (despite what people here on /. think about their anti-piracy policies) realized that the sell-through model for video distribution pioneered by Disney works extremely well, hence the reason why DVD's are still reasonably priced for what you get. Small wonder why many movies that didn't quite make their money back in theatrical release are making it back in video release.

Re:Treat sharing as promotion and reward sales

[Reziac]

Here is the new model, which is already working for some artists (particularly small local bands):

1) Record an album, using completely independent producers and recording facilities.
2) Release the entire album as MP3s, on your own website. (Or save yourself bandwidth, and release it to some P2P network, with an id3 comment tag that points at your site, making it easy for filesharers to find you.)
3) Make it REAL easy, and inexpensive, for anyone who visits your site to buy the CD.
4) Profit.

You will notice that nowhere in this scenario does a dime go to the RIAA. And *that* is exactly WHY the RIAA (and the MPAA, tho independent film production takes a lot more horsepower and know-how than independent album production) is trying to stomp out MP3s in particular and filesharing in general: when the artist discovers that the MP3 is a better promotional tool than the RIAA machine, the consequent shift in production/release methods cuts the RIAA out of the financial loop.

Yet if the RIAA had a clue, they could be jumping on this bandwagon and adding to their own profits. In particular, it would boost sales of marginal artists that they now [claim to] lose money on.