File Sharing and CD Sales, Again

Andrew Leonard writes "Stan Liebowitz, an economist studying the effects of file-trading on the music industry, says in an article in Salon that new numbers have convinced him that the decline in CD sales may be partially attributable to MP3 downloading. But he also argues that the decline does not justify draconian new laws."

Comments

Might it possibly be....?

[Newer Guy]

That I and millions of others like me have decided to boycott the RIAA?
Hmmm?

Might we be sick and tired of their power plays and their intrusions into our personal lives?
Hmmmm?

Might we be sick and tired of being called criminals by them?
Hmmm?

Could we be tired of ther inane music they've been producing the past few years?
Hmmm?

Well, My Leibowitz...what do you think??

Soon-to-be author changes conclusions again

[guttentag]

University of Dallas economist Stan Liebowitz, author of an upcoming book (set for publication Sept. 7) titled "Rethinking the Network Economy," is digging hard for quantitative answers.

In May, Liebowitz published a paper suggesting that the record industry would soon be seriously harmed by MP3s. But in June, by the time Salon caught up with him, he was questioning his own conclusions after having examined the numbers and finding little solid proof that file sharing was hurting CD sales.

Two months later, he's changed his mind again.

As an economist, Liebowitz knows as well as anyone how to sell a book:

1. Examine a controversial issue the perspective of your expertise (it helps if one side of the issue is backed by a very wealthy cast of characters who will do anything to promote their side)
2. Announce that you will be writing the book
3. Announce that you have found "evidence" in favor of one side
4. Announce you were wrong and that you now have evidence to support the other side
5. Change your mind again, announcing that further information has revealed that your first conclusions were correct, just two weeks before the book is published.
6. Now everyone wants to read your book to find out if they've been vindicated.

He studied 30 years of record sales data, and in the three months prior to the publishing of his book, he has found "new evidence" that caused him to fundamentally reverse himself twice? If this guy publishes a book on how to sell books, I might read it, but I won't be reading this one. Who's to say he won't change his mind again in October when he needs the cas^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H finds new evidence?

Re:Treat sharing as promotion and reward sales

[Reziac]

Here is the new model, which is already working for some artists (particularly small local bands):

1) Record an album, using completely independent producers and recording facilities.
2) Release the entire album as MP3s, on your own website. (Or save yourself bandwidth, and release it to some P2P network, with an id3 comment tag that points at your site, making it easy for filesharers to find you.)
3) Make it REAL easy, and inexpensive, for anyone who visits your site to buy the CD.
4) Profit.

You will notice that nowhere in this scenario does a dime go to the RIAA. And *that* is exactly WHY the RIAA (and the MPAA, tho independent film production takes a lot more horsepower and know-how than independent album production) is trying to stomp out MP3s in particular and filesharing in general: when the artist discovers that the MP3 is a better promotional tool than the RIAA machine, the consequent shift in production/release methods cuts the RIAA out of the financial loop.

Yet if the RIAA had a clue, they could be jumping on this bandwagon and adding to their own profits. In particular, it would boost sales of marginal artists that they now [claim to] lose money on.