When to Buy Technology Goods?

inblosam asks: "I am about to make 'the switch', but the thought came to me that there may be a strategic time of year to purchase technology goods. Of course once you buy something it is nearly outdated already, but there must be some marketing cycle for lowering prices and releasing new toys. Anyone seen any patterns that may help? I do have one hypothesis: Companies push their products that have been on the market for 10-11 months during the holiday season (December), then afterwards drop the prices some and bump up the product with a new feature or size, etc. I believe this was the case for the iPod ($500 down to $300 ?), and even the Handspring Visor Edge was $300 when I bought it (November?) and then $169 three months later."

Comments

18 month product cycle

[oaklybonn]

One thing to remember is that Apple tends to revamp a product category (consumer desktop/loptop, pro desktop/laptop) approx. every 18 months. This is by design. There are incremental upgrades during this time (larger iMac screen).

Gee, did I get a first post?

MacWorld

[TellarHK]

When you're looking at Apple purchases, try and keep the MacWorld schedules in mind. Usually MacWorld NY offers the 'big' updates and price shifts, but the other MacWorld events do too. It's a good idea to buy right after one, because prices aren't likely to change for a while.

Dont' be an early adopter

[Zygote-IC-]

For Apple products its always best to get wait for revision after a major product overhaul.
Early adopters get burned. Outside of the obviously faster chips, graphics cards, etc, which just goes with the territory of buying computers, with Apple you get the industrial design quirks that haven't been worked out properly.
In the original Titanium Powerbook the battery comes out if you twist the wrong way and the DVD drive can grind if the thing is at an angle at all.
If you are going to "switch," always take the second or third product revision from Apple. You end up better in the long run.

Don't Buy Now

[Drunken Coward]

Most of the major retailers seem to raise their prices for the back-to-school rush of buying computers. If you have to have it soon, at least wait until mid-October.

But computers are considered an "immature" technology, so it's a safe assumption that you WILL save money if you hold out as long as you can until you buy. The prices aren't going anywhere but down.

The obvious - linewidth.

[Christopher Thomas]

For microprocessors and motherboards, prices are tied to the linewidth cycle.

A couple of months after a new linewidth becomes available, you get a few marginally higher-speed samples at a huge price.

Over the next six months, speed ramps up by a factor of 2 and prices drop on the older stuff. During this time any new chipsets introduced for the new hardware mature.

6 months after a linewidth switch, buy from the low end of the new speed grade range. You'll get a good price, and won't be obsolete for a year or more (as opposed to the usual 6 months).

There should be similar cycles for RAM (twice as fast, since they step lithography in cycles twice as fine), but in practice this isn't the case. Because margins are so thin, you get the occasional upset that drastically affects price (sometimes with help - the warehouse fire that quadrupled RAM prices a few years back only affected 3% of production capacity, according to rumour).

Processors are driven by linewidth, and motherboards are driven by processors, but most other things are market driven and so not as easy to predict. Other posters seem to have a better handle on this than I do :).

Re:The obvious - linewidth.

[Mr Z]

Linewidth is essentially that "0.13 micron" number and similar that semiconductor manufacturers quote when they're quoting the process node that their device is manufactured on. It's a size gauge used to advertise how advanced the process is. Smaller is better.

Semi mfgrs usually quote "L_effective", which is the "effective gate length of the smallest transistor". This is usually a bit smaller than "L_drawn" (the drawn gate length), and smaller than the line width. This page (down near the bottom) offers this blurb from a Motorola engineer:

In the case of line widths there may however be some legitimacy to the different numbers they feed you. Each company uses a different definition for this parameter, and within the same Company they may bounce between definitions to suit their purposes. One definition is the drawn width of the minimum poly-silicon feature. Another definition is called Leff ('L' effective), the minimum length of the electrically isolated region under the CMOS transistor. The value in this second definition is modulated by the drawn width from the first definition. It, however, is also modulated by diffusion of ions implanted into the silicon substrate which often makes it 15% to 40% smaller then the drawn width. This definition is also highly dependent on the algorithm and the equipment used to calculate the Leff parameter.

There is yet a third definition also commonly used for line-widths which is very similar to the first definition. This definition gives the average minimum width of the actual poly-silicon where it forms the gate of a transistor. Due to the polymerization of the masking resist during the poly-silicon etch and the magnitude of the exposure during the photo step, this value can be 10% greater or less than the drawn width.

--Joe

Re:The obvious - linewidth.

[jafuser]

I agree. It seems like games don't quite keep up with the CPU's these days, and I doubt they will, especially now that most of the work has been offloaded to the 3d accelerators. See this graph as an example.

now

[bcrowell]

This is an answer to your specific question, but not to the more general one: now is a good time to buy a mac. The reason is that the long-awaited MacOS X 10.2 (Jaguar) has just come out, and the next big (non-free) release is probably a long way off. (If you're like me and bought an earlier version of MacOS X for $130, then 10.2 is another $130.)

Getting at your more general question, the answer is also now. You're always guaranteed that if you wait it will be faster and cheaper. So what? Then you don't get the use of the machine until a long time from now.

End of Life (EOL)

[perfessor multigeek]

If you watch the Mac sites (MacNN, MacOS Rumors, Macintouch, Apple Insider, MacAddict) you'll find that they usually post info on when a given model is reaching what Apple calls End Of Life, i.e. they're about to discontinue that model. That is reliably a good time to buy as you'll avoid getting the bugs of a 1.0 product and usually get some good toys as Apple tries to clear out their inventory.
Remember, Apple is massively paranoid about excess inventory since they were so imfamous for having it in the bad old pre-Steve days.
Of course, you would be even better advised to buy a used Mac at a site like smalldog, macresq (where I bought mine), PowerMax, or the Powerbook Zone. Keep in mind that the useful life of a well cared for Mac (5300s and such notwithstanding YMMV) is about ten years.
Buy a model about a year old, max out the RAM, get a copy of Virtual PC, and score some two-version-old legit copies of your apps on eBay or the used mac sites, and you'll be stylin' on far less cash then you'ld think.
Speaking as both a former IT director in publishing and somebody who has set up stacks of machines for starving artists, that's what I'ld recommend.
Of course you could always drop by the Computing links section of my site and get even more advice ;->
Rustin

When a new version/generation is introduced

[BlueStreak]

Oftentimes with a new version/generation of a product is being introduced (i.e. with a new OS, features, form factor, etc) you can usually get the previous version/generation at a really good price.

This is why I prefer to wait and buy older PC games and hardware (usually stuff that is a 1 generation behind the latest stuff). The added advantage of doing so is that the product tends to be more refined/less buggy.

With specific regards to Apple, right now is a good time to buy a system that DOES NOT have Jaguar on it. I recently picked up an iMac with OS X (for my wife) and, compaired with to the plain-jane iMac, we got it for $200 cheaper (Canadian $) plus ours came with a CD burner and an extra 128 MB or RAM.

Obviously, they were trying to get rid of their non-Jaguar inventory at my local BMac store. We also got a coupon so that we can buy Jaguar for $30 CND (it should arrive any day now).

My strategy

[xee]

I buy right after something big hits the market. I'd get a 2 GHz processor right after the 2.2s come out. A GeForce 3 right after the GF4 comes out. This gives you a good balance of near-cutting edge for a fair price. Your hardware stays up to date longer, and doesn't cost as much as the top of the line.

On buying into technology.

[Mir322]

Define what you need. Don't settle for the advertised price, recognize the concept of mark-up. Be willing to pay good money for good gear, and don't always go with the prices offered at the first store you come to.

It helps to buy somethings over the summer when everyone's on vacation. Prices can be lower, the store more quiet and the sales people more relaxed and less stressed.

$0.02 from a "Switcher"

[amichalo]

When I made the 'switch' I used a strategy not discussed here:

Top Product Line - Least expensive offering

Instead of buying a tricked out iBook, I bought the low end PowerBook G4. That way, I am in the product line with the most features, but I don't pay a significant percentage premium for Mhz, etc.

I used a car example to convince myself. (if you don't agree with the makes I choose, pretend I choose two you do like) I can buy a top of the line Honda with leather and such for about the same as a BMW 325i without talking navigation and expensive sports packages. For the money I would have wasted on so-so Japanese Leatherette, I could have German engineering under the hood. Get it?

It's the old 80/20 rule

As in many things in life, 20% of the work yeilds 80% of the results. In the same way, my Powerbook G4 has 2 FireWire ports, built in Airport dual head capability, IR port, and a much larger screen - all things you cann't add on to a "Top of the Line iBook" at about the same price point. I didn't pay 20% more for a faster processor, and I got 95% of the same stuff.

"Yeah Baby, you're really switched on!" - Austin Powers