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Slate Predicts The End Of TiVo
wiredog writes "Slate has an article about why TiVo (the company, not the idea) is destined to fail. It suffers from the same first mover disadvantage that did in the Newton and the Amiga."
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People have started saying, "I'll just TiVo the show." The name TiVo is directy connected to it's function. Right now, I don't know any other company that does what they do. When I go to a Best Buy, Circuit City, etc. looking for a device to digitally record TV show, I'm going to go look for "TiVo".
I don't think the Commodore 64/Amiga analogy is quite accurate. Somewhat of a slam (apologies), but the Commodore 64 was a very successful product, even by the article's own numbers. 22,000,000 units sold, versus 500,000 TiVos. While Amiga failed on the heel of a successful product, you can't say "Look! TiVo's going to fail! They're trying to make a followup to a successful product! Look at the Commodore 64!"
Okay, I agree a bit in that the TiVo is difficult to extoll the virtues of (in a small number of words), perhaps in the same way as an Amiga. We (consumers) don't have the vocabulary to describe what TiVo does, and that really really has hurt TiVo. Most people just don't get their mind completely wrapped around the product. "Oh. That's the thing that pauses live TV?" "Yeah. Isn't that some kind of television set?"
Perhaps TiVo is more Jack Tramiel than Commodore/Amiga. Jack though that word-of-mouth would carry him through. So much for the Atari home computer division! TiVo needs to educate people on its product.
About the difficult of install? I'd think the learning curve for America Online would be as difficult as a TiVo. But that's its greatest blessing and its greatest bane. It is a very different device.
Probably the best into line I can say when describing a TiVo is the effect: "It completely changes the way you view television at home, and for the better."
Really, in reading this article, I really don't see how they go about providing their title, that it is destined for the trash heap of history. While that might be true, they don't get into any real fact. Just neat stories.
The only thing that keeps my from buying a TiVo is the reoccuring fees. I understand that it is how they make money, but I just don't want or need another monthly bill to continually drain my income. If I just had to buy the device and that was it, I would buy one in a second.
Of course, I don't watch a lot of TV (more of a movie guy), and when I usually do it's usually the history channel or the learning channel. I guess it just isn't important enough in my case to make the jump from progrogrammable VCR to Tivo.
If you had nuts on your chin, would they be chin nuts?
The examples they give would be the same for any PVR, not just TiVo, this includes ReplayTV and XBox2. And a TiVo is really not that hard to use. My mom that has a hard time with email can use my TiVo with no problem. They'll be more scared of a DVD-R because they won't want to waste a blank DVD (yes, even if it's rewritable).
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Slate made a pretty big mistake in their analysis of why TiVo is going to fail. They mostly chalk it up to that "first mover" disadvantage that kills good products.
... which is now dead.
Only, TiVo wasn't the first mover. Panasonic was with the Showstopper
Some of the other tidbits are accurate, such as TiVo's difficulty in explaining what a "PVR" is, but that would be true of ANY device in the market. However, they really aren't trying to compare it to a VCR. The ads have always touted features VCRs just don't have, like the "Trick Play" features that come with having a Live TV "buffer".
There's also one other thing that they neglect to mention (probably because it didn't fit in the author's view), when they mention that other machines will have DVR capabilities too.
TiVo SERVICE is what makes the PVR so popular with TiVo customers. The hardware is all fine and dandy, but it's that software that is easy to use, and the features in it that make it special. TiVo's "Season Passes" can follow programs around when they switch time slots on the same channel. No other competitior can do that, and it's a godsend!
Regardless, TiVo is doing a lot of things right. They MAY go under, but it won't be for any other reason than the mass market just not being ready for it yet.
People who don't have a TiVo belong to at least one of these 3 groups:
* Can't afford it
* Don't know what it is
* Don't watch TV.
I believe the second group is by far the largest. To support TiVo, educate everybody you know about it. Hey, it's Linux based, it's really cool, and they actually perform - GASP, SHOCK! - usability testing.
For anyone out there that watches TV more than 1 hour per week. Get a TIVO or a Replay TV. They are so worth it. It will forever change your viewing habits (for the better), you will never look back. My wife is pretty close to being a technophobe, but she absolutely loves our ReplayTV. Its easy to use, there is always something on that she wants to watch now.
The only downside to having one is that you completely lose track of when stuff is on. Makes it a little hard to participate in the watercooler discussions about certain shows. Not a big deal, but it does happen.
I personally really enjoy sitting down and watch 2 or 3 episodes of the same show in a row. Plus, pausing live TV is about the most useful feature for the parent of a small child that I could imagine.
Anyway, buy one, you won't regret it.
No, I don't work for TIVO or ReplayTV or any other company along those lines.
Casca
Doncha just hate to see good sound products have to struggle slowly up the market acceptance curve while various cruddy products get to be a lot more ubiquitous than they deserve? I do.
I own 2 TiVo's that I've upgraded so combined they hold about one third of terabyte of disk space. I love `em. My wife loves `em. I didn't mind shelling out the $500 for 2 lifetime subscriptions. I find the interface simple and intuitive. There are only minor inconveniences, like the plus and minus few minute automatic buffers on the ends of shows colliding in an non-intelligent way when shows on the same channel and type (eg, marathon sessions of back to back episodes).
I think you find astounding satisfaction with TiVo's from their owners.
At the same time, people outside the geek community are generally unaware of the entire concept of digital PVR and have never heard of a TiVo.
Word of mouth advertising is precious, but slow. It will be really interesting to see if TiVo gets enough growth in its customer base to bring it into profitability or (more likely) to where it gets bought out by some M&A hungry firm and the techy founders can retire wealthy and stop worrying about important but boring business issues. They desperately lack a big general advertising push. OTOH, one of the big selling points, speeding through commercials at 20x or 60x seems like it might raise a few eyebrows in the same advertising community!
I'm curious if TiVo's growth rate is increasing, whether there is any acceleration in TiVo's market.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
TiVo will fail because most people cannot understand what it it.
Most people fail to understand that what they see on the TV screen does not control what their VCR records.
Most people do not understand that when they dial the phone, a bunch of computers are digitizing their voice and routing it around, converting back to sound, and playing to the person they called.
Most people do not understand why the refridgerator gets cold inside.
Most people do not understand that modern "Analog" clocks are also digital.
Most people have no idea how a thermus knows when to stay hot and when to stay cold.
Most people in places where snow is uncommon do not understand that it makes the roads slick.
Most people pay for expensive water when it is free at water fountains everywhere.
Most people do not understand that the Coke in the can costs less then the can itself.
Most people don't understand what is wrong with Microsoft software.
Most people don't understand the difference between a surge protector and an outlet strip.
Most people (in the USA) don't vote.
Most people don't understand that silica is not edible.
Most people don't understand that they should not touch hot surfaces.
Most people don't understand that coffee is served hot, unless the word "iced" appears in front of it.
Most people don't understand the game of chess.
Ask Slashdot: Where bad ideas meet poor googling skills.
I've had TiVo for almost three years, and it's crazy to compare it to a VCR. They are nothing alike, the quantitative difference between what they can do is so great that it becomes qualitative.
With TiVo, TV is no longer a time-oriented medium. You don't watch shows when they're on, you watch them when you want to. The only way time matters is that a new show is only available on or after a certain time. It's more like a webcast, or a magazine-type site like The Onion. You're not required to sit there in front of your computer at 6 AM Monday every week to watch the new update of The Onion. You can watch it any time you want, it's just that you know a new one is available on a regular basis. All of TV is that way once you have TiVo.
Of course TiVo isn't the only way to get this. You can use Replay, or Microsoft's new box, or with a lot more effort you can set up a computer to do it. Any of these will give you those improvements.
But whatever you do, don't make the mistake of thinking it's a VCR. It's not, it's a device that turns TV into something that's more like a subset of the web, in that you have instant access to many, many hours of content, whatever has been updated since you viewed it last.
See also Telephone, Television, Electricity... Just because a product is first to market (or in this case, defining a market) does not mean it is doomed to failure. If you look at the companies that have invested in Tivo, you see that they'll survive (even if that means they are simply acquired). They have a best-of-breed product, a regonizable brand, and the market that they have defined is set to explode.
You've heard the song... 500 channels and there's nothing on.
Really, the problem isn't that there isn't anything on. The problem is that there's so much on, that it becomes increasingly impossible to filter the noise, and find that which is truly appealing to you, the viewer.
Tivo makes this possible. You don't tell it what time you want to record something. You tell it what show to record, regardless of when it is on. You tell it what genres you like, what actors you prefer, what directors meet your expectations. It does the rest.
You can not appreciate how this device will transform your relationship with television. It makes television useful, and entertaining, and it does this by catering to you, as an individual, rather than by allowing a television network to pour some target demographics into the plot generation device so that the program hits all of the right population segments.
I'm no longer "White males, 25 - 35, with a household income between X and Y."
Since I got Tivo, now I'm just me, and I watch the shows that appeal to me, and I watch them when my schedule allows me to.
For those that would die defending it, Freedom
has a sweet taste that the protected will never know.