Slate Predicts The End Of TiVo

wiredog writes "Slate has an article about why TiVo (the company, not the idea) is destined to fail. It suffers from the same first mover disadvantage that did in the Newton and the Amiga."

Comments

Too Complicated?

[SimplyCosmic]

From the story:

And compared with a VCR or DVD player, a TiVo is difficult to set up and maintain.

...

When a British media consultancy recently distributed some TiVos, 30 percent of the recipient households "never really got to grips with them"--or, in other words, they preferred to let the pricey boxes gather dust rather than waste another second figuring out the labyrinthine menus.

I suspect that those same families still have their clocks flashing 12:00AM and do little more than read email on their P4 2GHz computers.

You're always going to have people who simply aren't going to make use of technology due to phobia.

However, the opposite side to their figures is that 70% of the people given TiVos ARE using it.

And I honestly can say that once you teach someone initially how to navigate through the menus, having the TiVo automatically catch your favorite shows whenever they're on, despite most schedule changes, is far easier than the hassles of putting in new tapes all the time and manually programming a change in a particular week's showtime.

Commodore / Amiga not a valid comparison

[Tassach]

The Amiga failed in the marketplace not because they were the first mover, as the article suggests, but because the management at Commodore was hopelessly inept and corrupt. Instead of spending money marketing the Amiga and creating markets for them, they instead blew hundreds of millions of dollars on executive perks like private jets and company yaghts, not to mention obscene bonuses and stock option deals. It's failing had far more to do with Enron-style executive hubris than it ever did with market forces.

Thank you Microsoft

[KFury]

Last year TiVo spent almost nothing on advertising, and it's interesting why:

It turns out that MS was pumping millions into Ultimate TV advertising, and enthused customers were flocking to Circuit City and Good Guys, only to be told that they'd have to also get a satellite dish and service, regardless of what they already had.

Seeing their frustration, salespeople show them the TiVo, which works with whatever service they already have. Every dollar spent by Microsoft generated more TiVo revenue than UTV revenue...

A lot of posts miss the point

[astrashe]

The point isn't that PVR will fail -- just that the long term prognistics for this company aren't good.

I bought a PVR card for a pc. It sucks, the software is no good. But the card was $50. There's no reason why the software couldn't be good -- it just isn't. There are 3rd party apps that tie into tv listings just like TiVo does.

TiVo is nice, and they make it work, but you pay an awful lot for the storage space. TiVo is vulnerable to pressure from the big media companies, too, in a way that other solutions won't be. And I have to say that it's very nice to be able to record to Divx files that can be saved or shared.

TiVo won't die -- but it should.

[davinciII]

OK, maybe I'm a little biased. I was a happy TiVo owner for almost a year -- until the modem broked. TiVo only offered a 60 or 90 day warranty, so I would have had to send them the box, wait a few weeks, and pay them at least $99 to repair it.

So I bought an Ultimate TV. Since MSFT was shutting down the division, you could get them for $99 including the dish and installation.

Plus, with the UltimateTV, I can record 2 shows at once, in original quality(including Dolby Digital).

The reason I say it should die is their service policy. The failing modem is an extremely common problem with the units (just read any TiVo board), and they fail to recognize it.

TiVo has a far superior and faster interface. Their service releases give great new and timesaving features, and they listen to user feedback and do usability. If it weren't for their lousy service, I would be their biggest advocate.