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AdAge Predicts Tivo will Fail
geddes writes "Under the obnoxious headline
More U.S. Homes have Outhouses then TiVos, Advertising Age has published an article with a few good points: 1) Tivo/ReplayTV/UltimateTV aren't making any money and their growth is declining. 2) Cable and Satellite TV services are slowly rolling out PVR on thier own boxes. So 3) PVR will become a standard feature for most television users but become as unbranded as programmable VCRs."
PVRs will obviously be subsumed into the TV unit itself...TiVo can only hope to save itself through a superior UI and programming service that it maybe can sell to cable providers.
"The stock of TiVo, meanwhile, is down 95% from 2000; its star has faded on Wall Street even as it's risen on Madison Avenue"
Give me one tech stock that's near what it was in 2000. I notice the article doesn't say a thing about whether Tivo has actually made money or is making money right now. As it is, they're getting $12/month from me and I'm looking to add another Tivo soon.
-- "Freedom is the right of all sentient beings" -Optimus Prime
Everything useful eventually becomes brand-less.
Take PC's , they used to be called IBM compatibles. But now they're just so DAMNED handy and ubiquitous that now nobody REALLY cares what the brand is.
The fact that no one understands you doesn't mean you're an artist.
Another week, another article proclaiming the death of TiVo. Notice how it's posted by a magazine focused on advertising? Of course they want TiVo to fail, it provides the means for skipping all their boring advertisements.
Will TiVo fail? Possibly. Will it become useless? No. Due to their open architecture, people can and already have hacked the TV guide info, and if/when the day comes they go under, hackers will be able to take up the call and keep the service going.
I hope that day doesn't come, since this well designed hardware and software.
"TK-421, why aren't you at your post?"
Despite the relatively low market penetration, I am a bit suspicious as to the motives behind this story. Doesn't AdAge have a vested interest in seeing devices such as TiVo fail? This article has a decent analysis of the financial aspect behind the subscription model, but nary a word about the impact on advertisers from the loss of revenue due to skipping commercials? Poor jornalism, this should be filed under op-ed for ad-execs and the major networks.
They may have brand name recognition, and they may be a 'household name' but does that mean that they are going to be around forever?
;) )
Picks up tha magic 8 ball... signs point to no
The article states that already Tivo/Replay TV are licensing their products. It is very likely that eventually you will find companies that are trying to meet bottom line prices and will buy PVR from whomever can give them the lowest price. That's business. Tivo and the like companies will most likely become more of a software company than a 'hardware' company, especially with the advent of digital cable boxes and satellite boxes in so many homes. Many people will prefer one box that does everything. I honestly won't be surprised if we see television sets soon with PVR embedded into them (does anyone know if this has been done yet?), say within 3 years. Most cable companies are going digital, and to access all the 'great digital features' you have to have an addressable digital cable box, cable companies will gladly install software that will get people to use their product, especially if they think they can charge an extra monthly charge, or use charge, or even simply offer it as a feature and insert a few extra advertisements at the beginning of the program.
A quick summary. Tivo may still be around, but they might have a much weaker hardware division, or none at all. They may also have to diversify to stay around... (diversify, I had to use a buzzword
[Something witty and intelligent should have appeared here.]
{Traicovn}
TiVo's problem is surely their attempt to follow a subscription-based model rather than just selling boxes. It might have been better to manufacture PVRs, sell them at a reasonable price (which is still far above what they cost to manufacture, given the price drops in components over the past few years) and when the market peters out, just retire gracefully and return the profits to shareholders.
Trying to build up a base of paying subscribers may look good on the company's accounts, but shareholders are surely not under any illusions that these subscribers are guaranteed to stay around forever. Meanwhile potential customers (like me) stay away from TiVo because we don't want to pay a subscription for something (TV listings) which is available for free anyway, and the box will become useless once TiVo goes bust or discontinues service. The idea of PVRs is bound to take off, but you can't take that to mean that any particular company will survive.
Just sell the damn things like toasters, pocket the money, and stop making them when it becomes unprofitable. That's all there is to it.
-- Ed Avis ed@membled.com
Me: "I got a new Visor."
Them: "A what?"
Me: "A Handspring Visor."
Them: "A Handspring Who?"
Me: "A Vis-err, Palm Pilot"
Them: "OOOhhh..."
Worked for Coke and Kleenex.
Schnapple
Maybe the magazine/author had an axe to grind but the fact is, Tivo and ReplayTV has never had a very large market penetration. In fact, I don't personally know of any one who owns either one.
I think the reason is simply price. I would love to be able to use the features of these 2 products, pause live tv, skip commericals on playback, very easy recording of tv shows. But the truth is, this type of convenience is not worth the $400, $500, $600, or more that they charge for the unit. That's in addition to the monthly fee.
For approximately the same amount of money, I can take my whole family camping every weekend thru the summer and have a lot more fun!
Also, I don't think it helped ReplayTV when their units began requiring broadband access in order to download the program guide and software updates. Most people in the country still don't have broadband access.
Enjoy your life, it's the only one you've got!
Call me cynical, but I don't believe for a second that you can satisfy all the above requirements for a $200/box flat fee.
1) Gee, an advertising magazine saying that a product that allows skipping advertising is going to fail. There's a surprise.
2) If you don't own Tivo, you don't understand. I have a DirectTv/Tivo system. I can record two things at once, program wish lists, record something after it starts (I'm watching it, decide the wife would like it, so tell it to record the whole program). it records stuff in free space, based on what I watch, some of which I actually watch.