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Jupiter Forecasts 50% Increase In Spam

Mr. Sketch writes "According to Yahoo, the amount of spam is expected to increase 50% in the next five years, meaning the average american will get over 3600 of them a year. The future of email is??"

15 of 469 comments (clear)

  1. Re:One word.. by Jugalator · · Score: 5, Insightful

    you only specify who you want to receive email from, and don't receive any other mail.

    That would be a start!


    Yeah, a pretty bad start, since it would take away most reasons you leave out your e-mail address; to let people you don't know contact you.

    If we have to start whitelisting people to make e-mail usable, we have clearly lost the battle against spammers, since it would make e-mail much less usable than it is today.

    --
    Beware: In C++, your friends can see your privates!
  2. Good bye privacy? by USC-MBA · · Score: 4, Insightful
    As a libertarian, I am concerned by the tension between wanting to stamp out the flow of spam, and the two-pronged threat anti-spam forces pose both to free speech and to email anonymity.

    The ability to send unsolicited email to practically anyone has long been a valuable online tool for everything from online protests (like filling your Congressman's mailbox with anti-DMCA flames) to communicating with intriguing personalities. A good deal of anti-spam legislation can be interpreted in ways that infringe on this basic cyber-right. Worse, the anti-spam cause could also be used by authoritarian interests to crack down on all unsiolicited emails.

    Likewise, anonymous remailers and open relays have been used by people to protect their privacy almost as long as email has existed. These valuable tools of freedom can also be targeted by the Ashcrofts of the world in their bid to tie back our liberites, all in the name of crushing "spam".

    Let us hope that privacy-loving interests will continue to develop technological solutions to the problem of spam, thereby keeping the solution to the problem market- and freedom- based rather than relying on the "good graces" of the State to keep junk mail out of our inboxes

    1. Re:Good bye privacy? by Steve+B · · Score: 4, Insightful
      As a libertarian, I am concerned by the tension between wanting to stamp out the flow of spam, and the two-pronged threat anti-spam forces pose both to free speech and to email anonymity.

      If you're a libertarian, then you know perfectly well that you don't have a right to "free" speech on my dime.

      The ability to send unsolicited email to practically anyone has long been a valuable online tool for everything from online protests (like filling your Congressman's mailbox with anti-DMCA flames)

      Any communication to your Congressman about federal legislation is inherently solicited -- it's part of the job.

      Worse, the anti-spam cause could also be used by authoritarian interests to crack down on all unsolicited emails.

      The anti-crime* cause in general could be (and is) used by authoritarian interests to attack privacy, the right to keep and bear arms, the right to keep private property, etc. However, nobody in his right mind suggests that crime should be tolerated as the price of liberty.

      (*I am referring here to real crimes such as theft and assault, not to politically invented ones such as drug possession. Spam, being a theft of services, properly falls into the former category.)

      Likewise, anonymous remailers and open relays have been used by people to protect their privacy almost as long as email has existed.

      Reputable anonymous remailers have always limited message flow, precisely to prevent them from being used to steal bandwidth from others.

      Let us hope that privacy-loving interests will continue to develop technological solutions to the problem of spam

      Technological solutions and legal solutions complement one another. We lock our doors and arrest burglars.

      --
      /. If the government wants us to respect the law, it should set a better example.
  3. Re:5 to 10 a day? by mackstann · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Same here, i get *maybe* one email a day, and thats usually from a mailing list or something.

    i only recently got a couple spams on my "real" email account (the one i run myself), my yahoo account i dont check for weeks or months on end (its one of those spam catching accounts for registering places, etc.) and my email at myrealbox.com never gets spammed.

    i have never done any sort of spam blocking/filtering/etc.

    here are some tips in case you dont know them already:

    • don't put your email address anywhere that web crawlers can find it. change s's to $'s, insert little [REMOVETHIS]'s, whatever. just dont put the real addy there, and make sure you obscure the domain name (they can still mail to jackass@ or webmaster@yourdomain and it'll get to someone). any text files, etc, that have even a remote possibility of leaking onto the net (it happens, you dont even need to be famous, there are tons of blah.net/~someuser/ listings with all kinds of interesting files in them on the net...) irc logs, mailing lists!!!, etc. if your address gets on the net, you will be spammed.
    • use a junk address for registrations/etc that might send you junk. common sense.

    andeuh.....thats about it! so, to recap, do type your real user@host email address, anywhere!, and don't sign up for shady stuff with a good email address. man, this sounds so easy, why is it people have such a hard time...

  4. The future of 3rd world countries is? by MS · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Modern countries have adopted laws against spam:

    Spamming is illegal throughout the European Union - I don't get hardly any spam from Europe (I get about 60 a day!), and if I get some, I am entitled to cash 250 Euros from the spammer... it works!

    Unfortunately some third-world countries like Korea, China, Brasil and USA (!!!) still allow spam or are reluctant to fight spammers, so spam is still a big problem to the whole world.

    Until those countries don't wake up and outlaw spam, the problem will persist

    PS: I recently have put most of APNIC in my sendmail access-list - it eliminates 60% of the spam, but spam from USA is still an issue.

    Greetings,
    ms --

  5. Re:The future of email by hkmwbz · · Score: 5, Insightful
    You don't care? Interesting.
    • Are you on a dialup?
    • Do you receive lots of e-mails every day?
    • Do you find that your own mail drowns in incoming spam?
    Probably not. Not only do I get plenty of spam every day. That extra minute of having to deal with spam really bothers me, because I shouldn't have to waste my time like that. It might lead to me accidentally skipping a valid message because I mark a lot of spam messages for deletion and don't notice that important e-mail from a friend from long ago who's trying to get in touch with me because he has important news... Down the drain.

    Spam doesn't bother you? Fine, but don't pretend that it is not a problem to others. Don't try to blow it off like that.

    It is, in fact, a major problem to a lot of people. Not only for personal e-mail, but our network administrators have to deal with absolutely huge amounts of spam that affect the network and its stability and reliability.

    Our company has to spend considerable resources on fighting spam - resources that could have been spent fine-tuning other parts of the network to make everything run smoothly.

    And then there's the amount of spam written in HTML and with images. Why should I spend money on downloading a huge spam message over my dialup connection?

    Spam costs me money. It costs my employer money. It costs a lot of people money.

    Spam is a real problem to a lot of people.

    --
    Clever signature text goes here.
  6. How About a Thousand Spams per Month by serutan · · Score: 5, Insightful

    A little calculation...

    There are about 12 million businesses in the US alone. If one tenth of one percent of them sent you one email per year, it would amount to 1000 messages per month. Just a single, polite inquiry once a year by a tiny fraction of the legitimate businesses in the US, none of whom would suspect that they are causing a problem. As common as spam may seem, most businesses haven't discovered unsolicited email as a marketing tool.

    That's the main reason we need anti-spam legislation. Not especially because of the aggressive efforts of a few assholes, but because of the clogging potential of even light usage by a vast number of businesses who mean no harm.

  7. how about a sane upgrade to SMTP? by CoughDropAddict · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The future of email is??

    I'm no fortuneteller but a good start would be an email protocol that fucking authenticates the sender so that you could be guaranteed that every email in your inbox has a from header that doesn't lie. No more untracable spammers. No more viruses that claim to come from your friends. As an added bonus, this would stop the flood of emails from various postmasters warning you that an email you never sent was not able to go through.

    Seriously, SMTP needs to be redone and the sooner the better. I know there are things like TLS and SMTP auth floating around, but they are not pervasive or mandatory, so they do no good at all.

  8. Story on Yahoo? This will be the same yahoo... by blowdart · · Score: 4, Insightful

    .. that refuse to disconnect anyone spamvertising yahoo store URLs? I'm surprised yahoo has the gall to carry the story.

  9. Client filtering has no future. by Martin+S. · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I write as the postmaster for a consumer email service, who enforces a strict abuse policy to prevent abuse at source. I do not consider client level filtering as a viable solution, it is a temporary stop-gap.

    It cures the symptoms not the cause, around 90% of all inbound traiffic to our email system is UCE and somebody has to pay for this, in both traffic charges and server capability. This is a hidden cost passed on all email users, ultimatly the consumer.

    It is for this reason that client side filtering is not a long term cure, it addresses the symptom not the roor cause. The long term solution must be the introduction of a trust network. The technology to make to possible is readily available in public key cryptography, what is lacking is the WILL. A system like this need not compromise anonymity, there are cryptographic protocols that allow for the establishment of anonymous trust with virtual identities. These same system can also be used to ensure email is cryptographically secure.

    This system requires the introduce of a core network of trusted directory servers as part of the MTA backbone, a network of authoritive MTA's which can and will vouch its users.

    This system is also vastly superior to the current black lists, which are far too centralised, clique and arbitrary, and fundamentally ineffective.

    This proposal does no even prevent commercial email, if anything it allows this to legitimise, punishing the fraudsters and crooks whilst rewarding the responsible. It is entirely feasible to choose to accept commercial/bulk email from their bank, or OSDN.

    Given time this will also provide participants a two fold advantage reduced costs and superior service.

    1. Re:Client filtering has no future. by wheany · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I agree that client-side filtering is done "too late" to currently save bandwidth, but if people start using efficent filtering, the amount of spam they see, and possibly respond to, decreases.

      As response rates go down, the profitability of spam goes down, and people stop spamming. So in the long-long term, it will decrease the bandwidth spam consumes.

      A quicker solution would be if (all) "regular" servers blackholed known spamhauses and open relays, but unfortunately few commercial ISP are ready to do so...

    2. Re:Client filtering has no future. by LX.onesizebigger · · Score: 4, Insightful
      As response rates go down, the profitability of spam goes down, and people stop spamming. So in the long-long term, it will decrease the bandwidth spam consumes.


      I really, really wish you were right. Over the last year or so, the profitability of banners and popup ads on the Web has decreased significantly, and the effect of that has been a frightening increase in the amount, persistency, and content intrustion of ads.

      --
      I for one welcome our new SCOviet Russian overlords to whom all our base are belong.
  10. Re:The future of email by Textbook+Error · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If people don't have the mental capacity to fairly easily filter out most spam, maybe they should stick to dead-tree-based mail...

    -1, Utter Bollocks...

    Why should I have to put up with endless financial scams and obscenity laden drivel whenever I check my email? Saying "oh, it's not hard to hit delete" is a cop-out. If you don't object to deleting 10 mails a day, what about 50? 100? 200? 1000? Presumably you have a limit on how much you'll take personally, so what are you planning to do when you start getting double that?

    You wouldn't put up with it in any other medium (phone, post, people coming to your house), so why email?

    --

    Nae bother
  11. Ah yes, SPAM.... by xA40D · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I've been seeing a marked increase in the number of articles claiming we're all going to be knee deep in spam any day now. Most of these stories seem to be based on information comming out of a press release from MessageLabs - who interestingly sell services to defeat spam.

    So IMHO I think the story should really be...

    FUD increases sales of SPAM related services by 50%

    SPAM is annoying, it's true. However, filtering it out is not rocket science - but then most people pull out the cheque book before engaging their brain.

    --
    Do you mind, your karma has just run over my dogma.
  12. Jupiter Media Metrix == con artists by MacAndrew · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Consider who is bringing you this information and take it with a grain of salt. Jupiter is in the business of consulting, and is on nearly every reporter's Rolodex as a source of that all-important statistic to anchor whatever tech story they're writing. So right off the bat they have a potential conflict of interest -- accuracy v. self-promotion as "the source" the data.

    If you listen carefully, nearly every time a web usage statistic is cited it will be attributed to either Jupiter or Forrester Research -- another (surprise) consulting firm. Listen to the news for these names and you'll be impressed how lazy and naive reporters can be, they often do a lot less research than it appears.

    Next, the NYT profiled them a couple of years ago in the Sunday Magazine. I don't have a link, but recommend you consider buying it (and I never do that!). Basically, it detailed how little experience the average analyst has; how difficult and unscientific it is to come up with data on things like banner ad clicks or to extrapolate tech trends; and quoted one analyst admitting that they were instructed, should the media call with a question they couldn't answer, they should make something up. Often they are spectacularly wrong, but who calls them on it? Again, the all-important goal is to get their name in the press, Jupiter is willing to give an opinion, it's free advertising. Note how Jupiter's name made it into even this short posting?

    I hate to think of businesses making important decisions based on such loosely-derived bits of data. So when I see a spam prediction such as here, I know there's a fair chance it's either an uneducated guess or simply pulled out of someone's ass. Maybe they're right, but I'd like to hear about their methodology. If they say they just went to the Oracle at Delphi (don't those names sound familiar?) then get on with our lives. Spam will still be a problem either way; there are proven ways to fight it; realistically we will never allow it to get to such levels.

    I encourage anyone interested not to believe me and do their own research. IMHO, this is one of the biggest scams this side of the pollsters and brokerage houses. I am deeply contemptuous of their work. Just a statement of opinion, not libel, no siree.

    P.S. May I throw in that I don't like seeing spam victims blamed for their plight. I have been scrupulous with my email for years and still the spam is inexorably growing, largely because of some idiot who opted-in to a dozen things mistakenly typing in my email address instead of his. Now my address is burned into a CD somewhere. Fault is unnecessary; and regardless of fault, the blame lies with the spammer. Naive users do not "deserve" to have their email paralyzed, rather they deserve our sympathy and help.