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Is Global Warming Behind Earth's Gravity Shifting?

MichaelH writes "The good folks at JPL along with the Royal Observatory of Belgium have an explanation for the recent changes in Earth's magnetic field: the melting of sub-polar glaciers causing a mass shift towards the equator. Starting in 1997, a noticeable change in Earth's gravitational field was observed; Earth was beginning to develop a 'bulging waistline.' Sounds like it's time for a diet with fewer greenhouse gases...."

10 of 96 comments (clear)

  1. Let's define 'theory', shall we? by stienman · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Sounds like it's time for a diet with fewer greenhouse gases....

    I *love* it when people postulate that humans are the cause for 'global warming'. It's been shown that
    • The earth has been gradually getting warmer
    • Certian chemicals synthesized by humans can cause some amount of climate change

    But it has never been proven that human activity of any form did cause, (or could stop) the climate change everyone seems so keen to label global warming.

    News flash: Global warming itself is still theory. It has some amount of scientific evidence behind it, but some against as well. This is to say nothing about the theory of human dynamics on climate.

    What is happening, however, is there are groups out there who believe that until we know for certian that we are the problem, we should assume we are and stop what we can. These people are called extremists or fanatics.

    I do not deny that the planet is changing, and likely it is due in part to human life. But it would be just as irresponsible for us to run in and fix something we don't understand (and may well not be 'broken') as it would to wontonly destroy our atmosphere (which is what some are claiming we do).

    Yes, yes, let's reduce our pollution. I, as well as many others reading this, have mild but chronic asthma. Sure, I'd like to breathe cleaner air and know that I won't get as ill as frequently as I currently do.

    Let's just not become couriers of FUD in the process.

    -Adam

    If it ain't broke, fix it 'till it is.

    Earth First! (we'll strip mine the other planets later)
    1. Re:Let's define 'theory', shall we? by Captain+Nitpick · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Global warming itself is still theory

      Welcome to science, where everything is theory, even the stuff we call "law".

      --
      But then again, I could be wrong.
    2. Re:Let's define 'theory', shall we? by kmellis · · Score: 5, Insightful
      " But it would be just as irresponsible for us to run in and fix something we don't understand (and may well not be 'broken') as it would to wontonly destroy our atmosphere (which is what some are claiming we do)."
      Replace "would" in that sentence with "might".

      If we were to go about a risk and cost/benefit analysis as rationally as possible, we'd have to acknowledge that there's a considerable amount of uncertainty as to the side of the equation involving the cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. We do know that it will cost something, and we know an approximate range, and we know that that cost can be translated into other tangible things, like money diverted from reducing non-greenhouse pollutants that cause disease.

      For the sake of the argument, let's invent a fictional economic unit, the "fubar". Let's assume that the cost of eliminating 80% of the production of greenhouse gases is somewhere between 50 and 100 fubars. (Note that I use an 80% reduction amount to imply what is almost certainly true--that approaching 100% reduction would have the cost increase astronomically.)

      Now we'll ask what is the cost of not reducing greenhouse emissions.

      Since we don't know if we're responsible for global warming at all, we have to place the lower limit of the cost of not reducing emission at zero fubars. But what's the upper limit?

      The point here is that the upper limit is very, very high compared to the upper limit of the cost of reducing the greenhouse emissions. I don't really know what the magnitudes are, but I'll guess for the sake of the argument that it's nearly 1000 fubars. And that could be low. Maybe it's 10,000 fubars.

      Your point is that the lower limit is zero and that spending 100 fubars on reducing greenhouse emissions is irresponsible. But that's true only if the cost of not doing so is actually zero. Your default assumption that it's zero is clearly also irresposible. It may be zero, but it may not be. And if it isn't, it's not likely to be 10 or 100, it's likely to be 1000 or 10,000.

      How much in possible financial winnings would it take for you to play a single round of Russian Roulette? (Say that if you don't shoot yourself, you get X amoung of money.) I ask because it's not certain that you'll shoot yourself in the head. Lest you try to argue this point on the basis of causation, it's also not certain whether there is a causal relationship between you pulling that trigger one time and a bullet being fired into your brain.

      So, since there's a prety good chance that there will be no bullet fired when you pull the trigger, will you do it for a dollar? Or ten? Or a thousand? Or, more likely, a million?

      Not spending money on reducing greenhouse emissions is like getting that dollar (or ten) in the Russian Roulette example. If the magnitude of the risk is so large compared to the benefit of not trying to avoid the risk, then it is clearly foolish to fail to avoid the risk, even when it is an uncertain risk. In fact, part of my point here is that the certainty (or lack thereof) of the risk makes no qualitative difference. It just means that the lower value of the range of the risk magnitude is zero. It doesn't mean that this is a special case where it's rational to defer making any judgment at all.

    3. Re:Let's define 'theory', shall we? by stienman · · Score: 4, Insightful

      This can be neatly summed up as A stitch in time saves nine.

      However, the other side of the coin has this story to tell:

      You are present in a room with dozens of walls. A few, at the top, have escapes which you can't see from the bottom. You have one ladder, but it'll take you hours to climb a wall and find out if it's the right one (you have no food or water).
      You have a series of clues, and things become more apparent the more you study each wall.

      Your above theory says, "Let's climb the first wall that seems the most likely." But what you may find out is that you spent several hours climbing a wall that is wrong. You've squandered your time, effort and money. And now you get to go back down and try again.

      Are you as likely to jump up the next wall, or study it out this time? You've already lost several hours, and you feel as though your time is coming to a close. It is rational to defer spending resources on an unknown.

      It's not perfect, we have several people studying all the available clues, but you shouldn't be throwing all your effort into one ladder when you don't even know if it's going to help. The probability that our emissions is *causing* or *accelerating* global warming has such a large range right now.

      All I'm saying is that we shouldn't be crying wolf until we identify the enemy. It is smart to make wise investments in clean air. To leave only footprints, and take only pictures so to speak. It is unwise to run around claiming that we know what's wrong, and that if we don't change we will be in a poor state later.

      -Adam

    4. Re:Let's define 'theory', shall we? by helix400 · · Score: 3, Insightful
      LOL! Your post had to be one of the best collections of terrible analogies, misleading facts, and horrible overgeneralizations that I've ever heard!

      So is Relativity, or Darwinian evolution. This does not help your argument, you imbecile.

      His point did a nice job of helping his argument. He mentioned that human caused global warming is far from being proven. Therefore, we shouldn't jump on the stop-global-warming-bandwagon blindly. Instead, we should instead give it careful study, and weigh out future consequences of our actions.

      As does almost any area of study in science, from cold fusion to ESP. But the great majority of evidence is behind it.

      What the hell? Where did you get this "great majority of evidence" supporting human caused global warming? The Sierra Club of San Fransisco? This issue is FAR from reaching any conclusions, as this site explains quite well.

      An analogy: you are trapped in a bank vault with ten other people...the vault is airtight...blah blah blah...so you light up a great big cigar.

      I'll let that analogy speak for itself.

      the vast majority of the world's scientists accept that global warming is a serious problem and to a significant extent caused by human activity

      Have you ever spent any time reading scientific journals on global warming? Or do you get your information from quick, eight paragraph articles from the New York Times?

      Your post shows that you have a good understanding of political debates, but a terrible understanding of the current state of science. One good way to fix this problem is by impartially and properly researching complicated issues like this in the future. Then you can back up your ideas without sounding like a complete idiot.

  2. In other news... by cyberlemoor · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The White House recently decided that it would be prudent to investigate further before taking any action to combat global warming. Debates were mostly over what research strategy to use. Of particular concern is ensuring that the United States economy doesn't suffer too much.

    Great!

  3. +1 Insightful on the MQR standard by MarkusQ · · Score: 4, Insightful

    So that's what happens when we come out of an Ice Age... ...the globe warms up!

    It's amazing how often this point is convieniently ignored.

    -- MarkusQ

  4. So what? by edunbar93 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Okay, let's assume that burning fossil fuels isn't what's causing global warming, and we reduce or eliminate our use of fossil fuels anyway.

    So now we've just managed to clean up our air to the point where Los Angeles and Toronto no longer have pollution advisories on the Weather Channel, but Rio de Janerio and Amersterdam are flooded.

    Well, we've just done one very good thing, and the other thing was expected anyway and didn't happen overnight, so it's not like we had to rush a huge evacuation or anything. Maybe we've just built better dikes instead.

    If we *don't* do these things, then Los Angeles and Toronto will have even lower air quality *and* Rio and Amsterdam will be flooded too.

    But what of the costs! They'll be enormous! Well, that's what they said about replacing CFC's, eliminating particulate waste from coal power plants, and not using PCB's to cool big electrical transformers. Oddly enough, coal power plants are now selling that particulate waste as a replacement for gypsum in fire-resistant wallboard, the extra cost of not using CFC's in your car's air conditioner is about $20, not $1500, and your electric utility is now spouting on about how good and wonderful they are for not using PCB's in your friendly neighbourhood power transformer (despite the fact that the government had to force them to do so).

    Even better is the fact that we can reduce our current CO2 production just by not wasting our fuel! Are we so wealthy that we don't have to worry about how much we spend on fuel, but not wealthy enough to not use it so much? There was one company here in Canada that went to parliament saying that "hey, this Kyoto thing isn't so hard. We met those goals already and look at the millions of dollars we saved!"

    By forcing people to look at the problem, we can start to find solutions. A large part of the problem here is waste. Waste is bad because its a sign of inefficiency. Why can't some people realize that when it's so blazingly obvious?

    --
    "No problem. I have the capacity to do infinite work so long as you don't mind that my quality approaches zero."-Dilbert
  5. you are pretending that the earth is flat by g4dget · · Score: 4, Insightful
    News flash: Global warming itself is still theory. [...] it has never been proven that human activity of any form did cause, (or could stop) the climate change everyone seems so keen to label global warming.

    Even if that were true, it would be irrelevant. CO2 emissions do cause increases in average global temperature; that is elementary physics. The only question is the degree and when those increases will lead to catastrophes. But increases and catastrophes will inevitably result sooner or later if emissions continue at current levels or grow.

    But it would be just as irresponsible for us to run in and fix something we don't understand (and may well not be 'broken') as it would to wontonly destroy our atmosphere (which is what some are claiming we do).

    Quite to the contrary: the only responsible thing to do is to greatly reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Not only does that address issues of global warming as best we can, in developed nations like ours, it is also good for the economy, for defense, and for quality of life. The only groups who don't benefit are entrenched interests afraid of change.

    In fact, it was completely irresponsible to start such massive changes on a global scale in the first place, initiated by what amounts to a very small group of people, with no oversight and no democratic input from most of the affected populations.

    Let's just not become couriers of FUD in the process.

    Given the global and irreversible nature of these changes, fear, uncertainty, and doubt are completely justified.

    What I find particularly ironic about the bogus arguments you are repeating is that they often come from the same people that formulate our drug policy on tenuous or disreputable scientific evidence. Apparently, it's not OK for me to voluntary inhale or ingest substances that only affect me and have never been demonstrated to be harmful. But it's perfectly OK for big companies to emit substances that I can't escape from and that the scientific mainstream pretty much agrees are going to have deleterious effects on people and the world.

  6. Re:Is this from Trending of the past? by g4dget · · Score: 3, Insightful
    So, where is the trending data over a few thousand years saying that man and his theorized greenhouse gases are heating things up?

    It is debatable to what degree the current, measurable increases in global temperatures are due to human emissions of greenhouse gasses.

    It is absolutely not debatable that human emissions of greenhouse gasses will lead to serious and costly problems sooner or later--that is just basic physics.

    Yo, Slashdot editors, please loose the P.C. Crap.

    When you don't like or understand the scientific realities, you just accuse people of political bias. Sadly, that's how a lot of political decision making happens in the US today.