Rand Expert Says To Keep Mum About Killer Asteroids

crashnbur writes "NASA is conducting a survey of the sky to find asteroids large enough that a collision with earth could 'extinction-type impact', and none studied so far will threaten us in the next 200 years. Of course, if a doomsday asteroid is discovered, the current policy is not to say a word: 'If you can't do anything about a warning, then there is no point in issuing a warning at all', says Dr. Geoffery Sommer. The issue may be making its rounds because an asteroid was discovered orbiting the sun between Venus and Earth earlier this week. Space.com presents a lengthy, four-part 'Impact Debate' (next three parts coming next three Tuesdays). Apparently we are just as likely to die by asteroid impact as in a plane crash."

Comments

Why not warn?

[Buzz_Litebeer]

The issue for me, is if they beleive that nothing can be done about it, maybe they have not thought of the clever solution to fix the problem.

Yes you will frighten the populice, yes the world may increase in suicides etc. The thing is, if you had undeniable proof that an asteroid WOULD hit the earth, and it WAS BIG ENOUGH to destroy it in a very convincing, end of the dinasours way, you could drive any arbitrary amount of money into finding a solution. Who is to say that with the combined ability of every nation on earth that there wouldnt be a way to put enough explosion on target to move such an object?

I mean, we have TONS of nuclear weapons, and possibly even the ability to create even more horrendous things that can explode quite violently, who is to say that a 100 year or so effort to put that much firepower into space to avert such an object wouldnt come to not? I mean imagine if you had the entire planet set forth to figuring out a solution, instead of a small relatively smallg roup going "welp sucks to be us lets not tell anyone that our kids or grandkids are going to explode in a fireball"

even if it was going to come within a few years, at least SOMETHING might be done, some way to preserve what as humanity are. I know it sounds a bit star trek, but having something aroudn to say "we were here" would be just as important as doing nothing.

Oh well, probably a lot more info in the article, but hey, can't just ignore it, especially if it won't go away.

Re:This is why...

[destiney]

Simple.. cloning.

The cloned humans may only live 6 years or so, and may have serious health issues the entire time they are alive, but what the hell..

Sure beats _not_ playing God huh?

Code Red

[kindbud]

'If you can't do anything about a warning, then there is no point in issuing a warning at all', says Dr. Geoffery Sommer.

Would sopmebody pass this along to Tom Ridge and the rest of the Bush administration?

Re:Excuse me?

[EvilTwinSkippy]

Nah, they'll just have an expose in the "New New York Times" or the "New Washington Post" 50 years later about how we really did know about the impending asteroid crash, but were planning on using it as a pretext for something.

Bah.

I know I'm going to live through whatever it is. I just seem to have that kind of luck. Look on the bright side, all those whackjob survivalists will finally discover there is no way to stockpile solar power, potable water, or oxygen. If you think a little bunker with tanks and cans is going to save you, I'd like to point out that I'm going to be enjoying oblivion at my local bar having a party to celebrate? Why? Because wherever we end up after this world has got to make a lot more sense than here.

The living at least get the option of Envy

[Syncdata]

But would you want to survive?....but when your options are dying instantly or dying gradually over the next few years (blocked out sun = no photosynthesis = no green plants = no food = good luck)
I don't like to see this kind of pessimism, at least not on /.
Okay, so the asteroid hits, dust in the air, no sunlight. Check. Sounds like it's about time to crack open a couple of books on hydroponic gardening, and rigging up an impromptu electric generator.
I've never bought the whole "living will envy the dead" cliche. By god, I like to think humanity is made of sterner stuff. Asteroids. So you killed the Dinosaurs....big deal. If you can't pull off a mass extinction more than once, you can't do it at all.

Re:somebody else mixing up statistics vs. probabil

[target]

Uh, no.

If, on average, a certain even over the course of a long time has some chance of happening, like, say, a plane crash or an asteroid hitting, then it's reasonable to compare them. If an asteroid hits, a ton of people are going to die, but it's unlikely. If a plane crashes, relatively few people are going to die, but it's much more likely.

The thing that isn't being taken into account is variance. Asteroid impacts are low-probability, high-variance events, kind of like winning the lottery in a really bad way. But, like the lottery, when it hits it has a much bigger impact.

So if I bet a dollar, and half the time I lose my dollar, and half the time I get back my dollar plus another 50 cents, I would expect to win as much money on average as if I bought a lottery ticket. The money won, on average, is the same. It's the same concept, except instead of dollars won in this case, you're picking people from the population to die. Grim, I know.

It seems to me that in a world of restricted resources, you should tend to put those resources not necessarily in the place that has the highest number of expected deaths, but rather in the place that will lower the number of expected deaths the most. So I think it's reasonable that we spend more money on airplane safety than on asteroid detection.

- target

Re:ummmm.

[artemis67]

Are they saying that as many people have died by asteroid strike as plane crash?

I don't think so; not yet, anyway.

Look at it this way: If, over a 10 year period, 100 people die each year in plane crashes, then the total will be 1,000 deaths.

However, it only takes one event for a meteor to kill as many people. Same ten year period, but no meteor deaths until the last minute of the last day in the tenth year, a meteorite strikes the earth and kills 1,000 people.

Statistically, the odds of dying either way are the same.

So, right now, we have lots of people dying in plane crashes, but no one dying from meteorites. But when a meteorite strikes the earth, it is estimated to kill as many people as plane crashes have.

Very simplified. I'm sure someone will want to flame me and clean this up a bit....

"Can't Do Anything About It"???

[Tuxinatorium]

Most of the asteroids >1km diameter that go anywhere near earth have been cataloged, and their orbits have been simulated hundreds of orbits in advance, with the closest match being like a 1 in 100 chance of being hit by a certain 3km asteroid in 8000 years. It would be pretty hard not to discover an asteroid that large with an orbit that intersects Earth's at least a few years in advance, in which case you could just blow it off course with a 100 megaton nuclear missle that NASA would build in a hurry. ;)

Re:Not in a long time...

[MeanMF]

In fact, earth has not been hit by an asteroid in at least several hundred thousand years. Why do people suddenly feel protection is urgent now?

Tell that to the Russians... The last major impact was less than 100 years ago, and released about the same energy as a 10 megaton nuclear weapon. It wasn't nearly enough to cause any kind of extinction, but I sure would want to be able to push one of those off course if it was headed towards a populated area.

Moon Impact

[jeepee]

I was wondering what would happen if the moon was hit by an asteroid.... Do the earth would have to fear darker nights (maybe a coube of degree less at night), orbit change, no more tide.... sound like a strange question but im very curious about it....

not completely erroneous

[Trepidity]

The analysis is the same if you want to discuss probability of dying in either event. There is a very good chance that there will be a plane crash (several, in fact) during your lifetime, but a relatively poor chance that you will be on one of the crashed planes. On the other hand, there is a very low likelihood that an asteroid will hit the earth, but if it does, there is a very good chance that you will be killed by it. This is why statistics and probability are very closely related, since the number of people killed in an event affects your probability of being one of those people (the more people killed, the more likely you are to be one of them, all other things being equal).

silly conclusion

[Anonymous Coward]

Besides the quotee claiming he was quoted out of context, of *COURSE* it's possible to do something. There are two problem areas with an asteroid strike:

(1) Surviving the initial impact.
(2) Surviving the climate-changing "nuclear winter".

Part 1 is a case of moving people away from the place where the impact is about to occur. Water strike: away from coastal cities to higher ground. Ground strike: away from the general area of the continent that's about to be hit. Nuclear weapons are unlikely to be able to do anything about an asteroid. They probably wouldn't change the asteroids course. Might break them up into smaller pieces that do less damage when they hit individually... but it would make them radioactive. Time needed is merely how long it would take to evacuate the predicted impact area in an orderly manner. The worst problem is going to be panic, fear, the generaly stupidity of the population, their tendancy to riot and act like idiots when in perceived danger.

Part 2 poses a much more difficult problem, assuming huge clouds of dust get kicked up into the atmosphere. With a worldwide crop failure as ecosystems die and global temperatures change. Giving ourselves enough clean drinking water, feeding ourselves and providing enough energy to keep ourselves warm will become the major problem facing humanity. Greenhouses would have to be used extensively to grow foodstuffs - coal, oil and nuclear energy sources would be extremely stressed. Farming animals would likely be impossible under the conditions as they're a very inefficient source of food.

And then the rebuilding would begin.

Re:Godd news

[LordNimon]

You have fallen victim to what I call the Engineer's Curse. Being an engineer allows you to understand better than anyone else all the ways a particular mechanical device can fail.