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Tomorrow's 5G Cell Phone
Roland Piquepaille writes "According to Mitre computer scientist Joseph Mitola, next-generation cell phones might be cognitive radios (CRs), or software radios learning from interaction with their users and acting in their best interest. InfoWorld talked with him about how his vision of "cognitive radio" would work, and how it could redefine cell phone technology. Mitola said his vision is still about five to 10 years from realization, but that it could mean a sea change as control is shifted from network operators to users. He also said that sending a 10 MB email in a zone where carrier charges are high might cause the CR to alert its user, and suggest waiting until getting to the office to use the LAN instead. Finally, he talked about serious issues like privacy and security. For example, he envisions that video recognition would allow CR cell phones to visually authenticate their owners. Check this column for selected Q&As or read the full InfoWorld's interview."
Do we really need all these extra functions on a mobile phone? I still use my phone mostly for calling only. It's still not sure if the next generation mobile phones (3G) will be successful. I think most of the people don't want all these gadgets.
Not to be negative; visions of the future are always interesting, but there are so many problems with this idea.
It's solving some problems that don't exist, for example. Does Mitola really think that five or ten years out there will be 3G access that costs $1/minute? I wireless access will be next to free in most urban environments (in his example the setting is a subway). And $1/minute is not next to free, even if inflation kicks in.
Heart monitors... does he mean pacemakers? One problem with upgrading them is the installation can be a bit inconvenient.
Police using a cognitive radio system? Most police already have radio systems. These systems have multi-decade life spans, and take many years to roll out. So there's another installed base problem there.
And do we need a cognitive model and actual user interaction when higher voice quality is needed? If designers really want to give users access to that knob, it might be more simple to make it just an up-front option when the call is placed.
Another problem is a lot of the analysis assumes the current world of artificial wireless bandwidth scarcity and high prices. But that could change. Mesh networks could allow devices to create their own wireless infrastructure, with no access charges, obviating fancy tricks for saving money.
Then there's the face recognition for authentication scenario, where the user is wounded on the battlefield. What happens when the user is in the dark, in a dust storm, has hypothermia so the temperature sensor (required so a photo can not be used) doesn't work, or when the user is wearing cold weather gear that covers the face? A good way to determine if a concept is effectively useless is to ask yourself: how many times a year is this scenario going to happen to the average user? If the answer is less than 1, don't count on seeing that concept in any products any time soon. "Imagine you're an african american police officer and your partner is irish, and you are being held hostage in the back seat of your patrol car and you can see your phone through the rear view mirror... the criminal leaves the car for a minute, but the good guys don't know that because it happens to be a foggy day... now in this exact scenario, xyz technology will save the day!" This scenario fails the test of usefulness, because this situation simply does not happen that often.
Now if Mitola wants to solve a -real- problem of wireless device users, like how to convert any music to a ringtone and download it free to -any- phone, in reality (no links please; they are all vaporware... did you notice the word ANY?) then he might have something. But in the meantime he seems like a guy with a hammer trying to find a nail.
I think the thinking behind banning the use of cellphones in cars in 'several European states' (I dunno why you ignore the several American states that have also banned cellphone use while driving) is more to do with the level of distraction caused by use of telephones. For the most part, the hazard I find cellphone users cause in traffic is that they don't notice the lights have gone green, or that there's a gap in traffic they can pull into - then they drive too slowly when they are moving. I'd like to see more attention payed to people who fill their car with kids, don't strap them down, and then overtake me on their way to school while screaming over their shoulder at the monsters in the back seat.
Regardless, the health risk case is definitely 'not proven' at this stage. As mobile phone technology evolves, personal area networks based on bluetooth evolve, and usage patterns shift, I think we'll see transmitters moved away from the headset anyway.
We need to change the way cell phones are sold in the US.
The only realistic way for me to buy a new phone for most (all?) service providers is by agreeing to a one or two year service agreement. The providers then would allow me to purchase a phone from a small list of subsidized phones.
That, frankly, it a shitty way for things to work.
Instead, the choice of phone and service provider should be decoupled. Landline phones became far more diverse and far less expensive after the era when were rented from AT&T.
Two of the reasons given to justify the current model are that there are several cell standards, so choosing compatible phones would be difficult, and that phones are expensive, so few people would want to pay the entire cost of a phone up front. Neither of these is sufficient justification. It's easy to choose between CDMA, TDMA, and GSM if you want to purchase your own phone. Also, even though the cost of the phone is high, you pay for it fully either way! Either you pay the entire cost of the phone buried in you $35/month or whatever bill, or you pay it yourself.
Here's what I think should be done:
I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one who when they hear "learn from your habits and be more helpful" thinks of Eddie from Hitchhiker Guide to the Galaxy. The ultimate in friendly and helpful and the sort of computer you want to take an axe to in 30 seconds.
A mobile phone with the usability of the MS Paperclip, now f--kin thank you.
An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
... of picking up a small appliance and having it (literally) tell you "I'm yours."
Seriously, though... this could be the start of whole new avenues of creating brand loyalty through psychological manipulation. "CowboyNeal, all the other phones are laughing at you. I'm the only one you can count on."