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Ask Security/Cryptography Expert Paul Kocher
Paul Kocher is unquestionably one of the highest-profile computer and network security experts around. He's president of Cryptography Research, Inc. and one of the architects of SSL 3.0. The floor is now open. Please try not to ask questions that can be answered with a few minutes' worth of online research. We'll post Paul's answers to 10 of the highest-moderated questions soon after he gets them back to us. Update: 03/13 18:18 GMT by M : Let's try this one more time, this time with feeling.
Therefore, "Please try not to ask questions that can be answered with a few minutes' worth of online research." should be rewritten as, "Please try not to ask or moderate up questions that can be answered with a few minutes' worth of online research. "
First, it's not well-known that the NSA is years ahead of the pack. That's purely speculation. The NSA says so little about how much they know that anyone who says "they're years ahead" just shows they don't know what they're talking about.
In the '70s, '80s, and on up into the '90s, the NSA was certainly ahead of the civilian cryptanalytic community. DES, for instance, had its S-boxes strengthened against differential cryptanalysis in the '70s--about a decade and a half before the civilian cryptanalytic community discovered differential cryptanalysis.
But recently, there've been tantalizing signs the NSA is not as far ahead as people once thought. The civilian cryptanalytic community has grown tremendously in just the last ten years, and the quality of scholarship is the best we've seen since Turing and Shannon established the field. The civilian cryptanalytic community is now breaking NSA designs.
For instance: the NSA submitted a pretty cool cipher mode (Dual Counter Mode) for use with AES. People were looking forward to the opportunity to beat on an NSA design--and lo and behold, Dual Counter Mode was broken within a matter of weeks. The cryptoparanoids out there will say the NSA intentionally put out a weak mode in order to fool their enemies into underestimating their talents, but--really. Occam's Razor applies to the NSA as much as it applies to anyone else. The simpler explanation is that the NSA got egg on their face, just like everyone else has had. If you're going to be active in the crypto community, you're going to get your fair share of brain-os. Bruce Schneier presented MacGuffin at one conference only to have his brainchild be broken before the conference ended. If something like that can happen to Bruce, why should the NSA be immune?
The really fascinating NSA braino is, undoubtedly, SKIPJACK, the cipher which was going to be the heart of the Clipper Chip. It had a very solid design and 32 rounds. 32 rounds is a lot of rounds--the idea the NSA would make a 32-round cipher struck a lot of people as evidence that the NSA was being extremely conservative.
Eli Biham took a look at the SKIPJACK design and, pretty much on a mental lark, decided to play around with some numbers. Before SKIPJACK had been published a month, Biham had invented an entirely new differential cryptanalysis scheme--"impossible differential cryptanalysis"--and had used it to break 31 of SKIPJACK's 32 rounds.
Remember: SKIPJACK was the NSA's effort at making a safe, strong cipher. They swore before Congressional intelligence subcommittees that SKIPJACK didn't have back doors, and they allowed a small number of outside experts (incl. Dorothy Denning, who's a crypto luminary) to review major portions of the classified cipher.
So either you've got to believe the NSA lied to Congress, deliberately deceived Denning, and that Denning wasn't smart enough to know she was being deceived... or you can believe the civilian cryptanalytic community is getting good enough to challenge the NSA on the NSA's own terms.
Anyway. Come to your own beliefs as to how far ahead the NSA is of the civilian cryptanalytic community. I think the answer is "not very", but reasonable people will certainly disagree on these things.