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Double Helix: 50 Years of DNA

Dr from the Source writes "Despite previous posts, tomorrow (April 25, 2003) is the real 50th anniversary of the publication of the famous paper by J. D. Watson and F. Crick in the Nature journal. Readers can download such paper, along with a few other classic ones from Nature's archive."

33 comments

  1. Nova program on Rosalind Franklin by PD · · Score: 2, Informative

    Nova had a really great program this week about Rosalind Franklin who did all the crystallography work. Apparently Watson and Crick stole her data and that's what enabled them to come up with the double helix model.

  2. Rosalind Franklin by Hard_Code · · Score: 3, Informative

    For those who didn't catch the Nova episode.

    Rosalind Franklin

    Rosalind Franklin was a brilliant [female] scientist specializing in x-ray crystalography. It was Rosalind Franklin that identified two forms of DNA, and correlated their diffraction images with the helix shape. Watson and Crick were secretly, and intentionally passed Franklin's in-depth research (some would say "stole"). If Franklin had not died of cancer (probably due to working so much with radiation) at such a young age she would have undoubtedly presented the discovery of the helix nature of DNA (she was far ahead of Watson and Crick, while they were still fscking around with broken models). Watson went on to write The Double Helix, which slandered Franklin, to which even Crick objected. Franklin's paper on DNA was published in the same journal as two other papers (one of which was Watson/Crick's), AFTER the other two, and EDITED without her knowledge to imply that her research merely confirmed rather than provided the foundation for Watson's and Crick's work. After being made so miserable working at the same lab with Watson and Crick, she went on to other things briefly virus research, in which her partner, surprise again, also won a Nobel prize.

    Personally I think it is a damned shame. We should be celebrating Rosalind Franklin. Or at the VERY LEAST we should have (and should still) heard her name. Crick and Watson really come off as clueless chauvanistic assholes. Granted, a Nova episode is one data point, but usually their programs are really good, and I'd like to hear other opinions if other people know more about this issue.

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    1. Re:Rosalind Franklin by Vellmont · · Score: 2, Interesting
      I saw the Nova special, and found it to be extremely biased.

      If Franklin had not died of cancer (probably due to working so much with radiation) at such a young age she would have undoubtedly presented the discovery of the helix nature of DNA
      Franklin died 4 or 5 years after the publication of the Nature article, so she had plenty of time to publish anything related to her DNA work.

      Watson went on to write The Double Helix, which slandered Franklin, to which even Crick objected.
      Crick objected to how he was portrayed in the book, so I don't see how this applies. As far has Watsons portrayal of Franklin, I think it only shows he's a sexist dick. (And reportedly still is). Should Watson have cleaned everything up and not been honest about his attitudes toward Franklin? At least now we have a historical picture from one persons perspective about the atmosphere surrounding the discovery of DNAs structure. Taken in context it's a great book that I'd recommend to anyone.

      After being made so miserable working at the same lab with Watson and Crick, she went on to other things briefly virus research, in which her partner, surprise again, also won a Nobel prize.
      Well, I don't know anything about her being made miserable, but she died before she was able to confirm her virus work. Nobel prizes are always awarded many years after someone has done the work and after it's been widely accepted by the scientific community. It's also only awarded to living people, and only shared by three. Franklink died in 1958. Watson, Crick, and Wilkins shared the Nobel in 1962. I don't know which nobel prize was awarded to her colleague, but my guess is she was dead by the time it was awarded.

      I'm actually surprised at how biased the Nova episode was. It made it sound like Franklin did all the work, while Watson and Crick came along took her research, cobbled together a model and published it. Franklin is portrayed as this poor innocent women taken advantage of by the evil Watson and Crick. Especially ridiculous is the line at the end: Franklin died "with no sense of having been edged out in a race that only Watson and Crick knew was a race." There were many people researching the DNA structure around the world, including two time Nobel winner Linus Pauling. If Franklin didn't know this was a race, she was either delusional, or stupid. I don't think she was either, which makes me extremely suspicious of the motives of the author of the book on which this Nova was based. Franklin probbably deserves more credit than she got, but the Nova special was out to make a martyr of her for sexism in science. This is made quite a bit easier because of her early death.
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    2. Re:Rosalind Franklin by chrisseaton · · Score: 1

      At least they're not claiming some random American discovered it. "It was Benjamin Franklin I tell you!"

    3. Re:Rosalind Franklin by BeGeek · · Score: 1

      i also found that program to be surprisingly biased, i had expected nova to be much more objective in its approach to these things.

      i _do_ think that franklin was screwed, but by all accounts, she was a bit of a snob herself, and made it very difficult to work with her at an equal level. the program seemed to simply dismiss this as a woman struggling in a mans world, but that doesn't change the facts.

      one thing struck me as very interesting. this photo 51 that they talked about, apparently, franklin had had it in her possesion for months before watson ever saw it, but watson and crick (aided by 2 or 3 other major breakthroughs and a co-workers brilliant insight) allowed them to build the model in a matter of weeks, it seems like a bit of credit (at least) should have been conceeded by the program to the two for taking her data and actually doing something with it.

      it is a damn shame though. she couldn't have won a part of the nobel, but her name really should be mentioned at the same time as watson and crick whenever referring to the discovery of the double helix, imho.

      CraigL->Thx();

  3. Hershey & Chase (then) forward engineering (no by airuck · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Then:
    I believe Watson and Crick's solution to DNA structure was a fabulous achievement, but press should also be given to Hershey and Chase's 1952 experiment proving DNA as the genetic material. Of course, they too rested on the shoulders of giants in chemistry and biology, but their work has equal claim to initiating an era of reverse engineering hereditary mechanisms.

    Now:
    Biology has come a long way reverse engineering life, but still has a long way to go. Unlike systems composed of similar components interacting to create a complex and often unpredictable outcome, life is composed of a huge variety of components which can interact to create stable outcomes (homeostasis). As we identify the individual components and subsystems, a new field is emerging. This field, called systems biology, is about modeling this complexity.

    Now/Next:
    Perhaps most exciting, there now exists enough information to begin forward engineering life. In living systems we have the ultimate collection of both components and subsumption architectures for making complex systems. Rodney Brooks was brilliant for modeling his robots after living systems, but a living system can be the starting point for further engineering. This work has begun, but consists mostly as limited applied science with pharmaceutical, agricultural, or industrial enzyme goals. Is anyone (else) engineering life for the sake of engineering?

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  4. Rosalind Franklin by dasunt · · Score: 1, Informative

    For the curious, googling for "Rosalind Franklin" is rather informative.

    And no, this isn't offtopic.

  5. We *are* genetically engineered to be intelligent by leonbrooks · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    The Christian Right are just one example among many of the dangers inherent in misreading or ignoring the manufacturer's instructions (you're another). Your brains work a lot better if you don't constantly abuse them in lifestyle and diet.

    Sit down for a few hours and figure out the odds against enough genetic material arising spontaneously (together with a framework to support and replicate it all), no matter how many or how few steps it's done in, to produce the most basic lifeform. It lends new depth and richness of meaning to the term "impossible". The Medieval people called it "spontaneous generation" and we laugh at that concept - but the only new ingredient we add is time.

    Even living critters like us, if we die, don't spontaneously burst back into life again or spawn simpler critters. All of the ingredients are there, in the right arrangements and ideal concentrations, an immensely better situation than any of the ephemeral "primordial soup" scenarios, yet we don't get new life from dead bodies, we just get food for worms and bacteria.

    So if it didn't happen by accident, it happened by design. Is there a third alternative?

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  6. backwards and forwards by leonbrooks · · Score: 1

    Y'know, given how difficult it is for us and all of our technology to even consider forward-engineering from borrowed parts, one has to wonder how life as we know it came together in the first place. The complexity involved is well over the top of anything which can be produced by randomising and selecting - without a plan for making those selections - in any finite time.

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  7. Double Gaylix (7YRS of Homosexuality on webchat) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    kc + ScottK ----^

  8. Re:We *are* genetically engineered to be intellige by Dr+from+the+Source · · Score: 1
    Sit down for a few hours and figure out the odds against enough genetic material arising spontaneously...
    A creationist ever being able to think objectively is even less probable.
  9. Re:We *are* genetically engineered to be intellige by daeley · · Score: 1

    but the only new ingredient we add is time

    If you add a grain or two of sand to your soup, you are unlikely to notice it.

    Now add a handful of sand. You begin to notice the grittiness.

    Now dump an entire beach of sand onto your dining room table.

    Adding ingredients is relative, even if it is only one new one.

    Now, I know you're a troll (even if you may not realize it), but go read this, take a look at the image it talks about, then have a little sit down and realize that this planet we're on (and all of your "intelligent designs") are more meaningless than one microscopic speck of silica in the entire ocean.

    (Where's a Total Perspective Vortex when you need one....)

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  10. Not enough data by roberto0 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The actual article is funny because they never would have gotten it published if they didn't propose the mechanism for DNA replication in the same breath.

    At the time, crystallography was something geologists did in order to study the composition of rocks. The idea of using xrays to study the crystal patterns of biological molecules was really new at the time. Franklin deserves credit for being innovative in that regard. The real credit that Watson and Crick deserve was that once Crick saw that the structure was a double helix, they were able to put together a decent model for DNA replication. Something people had only guessed about before. Their model wasa still a guess, at best, but they turned out to be right!

    The funny part about the whole thing is that the diffraction pattern that they analyzed was no bigger than your fingernail. The picture in the Nature article has actually been blown up from its original size, if you can believe that. Kind of scary how something so important could have been determined by studying something so blurry and small...

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  11. The Mote in God's Eye by leonbrooks · · Score: 1
    Adding ingredients is relative, even if it is only one new one.

    You cannot add enough time to make spontaneous generation work. The closest anyone has come is (in their head only) adding an infinitude of extra universes to reality in the (forlorn) hope that if you toss a coin often enough, you'll come up with 10^umptysquillion heads in a row. Not only are those extra universes strictly an article of faith, but the way odds work the universe we would find ourselves in under those circumstances is extremely unlikely to be anything like as favourable to life as the one we're in. Arguments about "we're here because we're here" are just plain dumb - and the tautology they represent points once again to an article of faith.

    go read this, take a look at the image it talks about, then have a little sit down and realize that this planet we're on (and all of your "intelligent designs") are more meaningless than one microscopic speck of silica in the entire ocean.

    I realise that your nickname is "Cyclops", but aside from the fact that a perspective in which we are insignificant and intrinsically worthless is a useful one - it makes the value placed on each of us so much more meaningful - our planet is indeed special, since it's a cosmic hop, skip and jump from the centre of the universe (in a universe which you hold as an article of faith as having no centre).

    Now I'm wondering why my comment above got modded offtopic and your's didn't. I guess it's a political thing: "I disagree (as an article of faith, not based on complete observations), so I'll blast him". Very SlashDot. (-:

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  12. Offtopic? by leonbrooks · · Score: 2, Insightful

    DNA is one of the best demonstrations in existence that we cannot have arrived here as the culmination of a long series of accidents. If you've got a problem with that, explain your problem to us all instead of voting pointlessly. Even an AC comment is better than an "Offtopic" mod.

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    1. Re:Offtopic? by Dylan+Zimmerman · · Score: 1

      How is DNA a demonstration against macroevolution?

      With billions upon billions of years and billions upon billions of joules of energy flying every which way, I would be very surprised if life didn't start.

      DNA is actually a very simple molecule, and I am speaking as a student of molecular biology, here. It's just _very_ large, so it seems much more complex than it is.

      It consists of four basic units, each of which is simpler than the simplest protein of which I know. In fact, they are about as complex chemically as amino acids, which suggests that the two developed together.

  13. Mathematics 101 by leonbrooks · · Score: 1
    Sit down for a few hours and figure out the odds against enough genetic material arising spontaneously...

    A creationist ever being able to think objectively is even less probable.

    I'm glad you had something objective to say, and didn't stoop to an ad hominem argument.

    In point of fact, given the existence of creationists - and even asserting that they're all literally insane - the odds against one of them thinking objectively are many thousands of orders of magnitude more likely than even the simplest concievable life-form having formed entirely by accident out of 10^81 atoms (the vast majority of those being hydrogen) within 10^17 seconds even aided by the most eye-poppingly optimistic assumptions about the environment(s) that this may have occurred in.

    Now take your religious zealotry elsewhere, materialist (-: or at least get some objectivity of your own installed :-)

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    1. Re:Mathematics 101 by Tuxinatorium · · Score: 1

      news flash: 6.022x10^23 hydrogen atoms = 1.01 grams. If you don't recognize those numbers I suggest you go study some chemistry. The smallest life forms still alive today are on the order of 10^8 atoms. And it had a billion years to form, and was aided by carbon0-based molecules' tendency to coagulate and polymerize. Plus, Earth could have been the one successful "attempt" out of a pool of 10^xx planets in the universe. Thirdly, calculating the probability of one particular type of life form forming is meaningless because there are virtually infinite possibilities. Life could just as easily have been silicon based. The problem with the "argument from design" is that it makes to many narrow assumptions about what environments can and cannot support life, etc. Note for future reference: Don't pull numbers out of your ass.

    2. Re:Mathematics 101 by Dr+from+the+Source · · Score: 1
      A creationist ever being able to think objectively is even less probable.

      ...or at least get some objectivity of your own installed :-)

      You don't even see the logic in my statement :-(
      I'm sorry, but I don't have the time nor inclination to argue with you. Have a nice day.
  14. Intelligence & Creationism by djeaux · · Score: 1
    A creationist ever being able to think objectively is even less probable.
    This may be because evolutionists have spent millions of years evolving objective thought, while creationists have not.

    I once published a monograph on this subject in the old Journal of Irreproducible Results. (I am most emphatically not making this up.) The phylogenetic tree was something like this:

    primordial slime ---> creationist
    primordial slime ---> fish ---> frog ---> lizard ---> lemur ---> ape ---> evolutionist

    Huxley said it better, of course...

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  15. Mathematics 102 by leonbrooks · · Score: 1

    news flash: 6.022x10^23 hydrogen atoms = 1.01 grams

    And Avogadro's number has what to do with probability?

    The smallest life forms still alive today are on the order of 10^8 atoms. And it had a billion years to form, and was aided by carbon-based molecules' tendency to coagulate and polymerize.

    Well, you've made a start, I guess. Pick a lifeform of the order of 10^8 atoms and structure them in all chemically possible ways (ie, all combinations of 10^7 through 10^9 atoms). How many of those ways represent a living organism? Let's be generous and call it one in 10^9 possible arrangements. What does this organism eat/breathe? What proportion of possible locations in the universe contain those substances? Of those locations, what proportion fall within habitable ranges of temperature and radiation? What proportion of them contain no significant concentration of chemicals lethal to our organism-to-be? What mechanism(s) are you proposing to rearrange these auto-polymerising carbon chains? Is this "lifeform" that you've chosen standalone, or a virus? If it's a virus, what are you proposing to use for a host?

    Earth could have been the one successful "attempt" out of a pool of 10^xx planets in the universe.

    I don't think you're reading from the same page as me. Limiting yourself to a planetary surface would tilt the calculations dramatically toward "my" end of the table.

    Way less than 1% of the atoms in the universe are other than hydrogen (92.5%) or helium (7.4%); oxygen (0.06%) and carbon (0.03%) are among the most abundant of those; but we'll ignore that, even though it's critical (because there are even more critical things to consider). If you rearrange every one of the (roughly) 10^81 atoms in the universe stupidly often (say, 10^9 times a second) for the (roughly) 10^17 second nominal life of the universe and ignore the effects of distance, you get 10^107 possible combinations of atoms (which certainly is a shitload of combinations).

    Over against this, we set out the need for at least something like 100 functional proteins to appear in the same location simultaneously. Nothing this simple has been observed in the wild, "simple" one-celled lifeforms like E.Coli are enormously more complex. A protein is constructed from roughly 200-1000 amino acids, so let's select shortish ones that average 300 aminos to improve the odds. This yields 4^300 possible proteins (10^180) at each site. Grant that any one of a million different proteins will function in any particular slot and we're down to odds of 10^174 against; look for 100 such proteins and we're up to 10^176. Not that it makes any difference.

    10^176 may not look so bad over against 10^107, but that's 10^69 short and in order for the numbers to be comparable we'd have to presume that every atom in the universe was an amino acid molecule. Statisticians generally quote somewhere between 10^30 and 10^50 as "impossible", so taking the stricter end of this spectrum and laying it alongside our universe made of amino acids with no space between them, we find that a working lifeform - any working lifeform - is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000 times impossible. This is a fantastic distance from even odds, and you've got to admit, I don't pull any punches when I use phrases like "wildly optimistic" to describe those starting conditions. (-:

    Life could just as easily have been silicon based.

    Firstly, no it couldn't. Silicon has different properties to carbon, and those properties won't allow it to form the kinds of compounds necessary to life. And if it could, why didn't it?

    The problem with the "argument from design" is that it makes to many narrow assumptions about what environments can and cannot support life, etc.

    No, it doesn't. Argument f

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    1. Re:Mathematics 102 by Tuxinatorium · · Score: 1

      It's still ridiculous to attempt to calculate the probability because there are virtually an infinite number of possible cases. It's all speculation and pulling numbers out of your ass, so I don't see the point in it. It is possible that amino acids could polymerize, by chance and physics, to produce a self-replicating molecule. Let's just leave it at that.

  16. April 2, 1953 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Nature v. 171, p. 737-738 (1953) was published on April 2, 1953. See: here, and here

  17. Polemics 101 by leonbrooks · · Score: 1
    I don't have the time nor inclination to argue with you.

    Ya just did, ya drongo! (-:

    If you were truly interested in not arguing you would simply have dropped it.

    I saw the logic in your statement, it was broken, I pointed it out, and now you're having a hissy fit and leaving. Very reasonable... (-:

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  18. Energy != structure by leonbrooks · · Score: 1

    How is DNA a demonstration against macroevolution? With billions upon billions of years and billions upon billions of joules of energy flying every which way, I would be very surprised if life didn't start.

    I'm going to borrow a couple of basic analogies to illustrate the point. Don't get carried away nitpicking the details of each analogy, just consider the broad view. The porpose of the analogies is not to prove or disprove evolution, but to illustrate some things about statistics.

    If you sent a tornado through a junkyard, would you expect it to form a working B52?

    My answer: No. I suspect your answer would be "what are you? nuts? the cases aren't comparable!" - but they are. A tornado brings with it energy, which is needed for assembling things, and the junkyard suplies raw materials, something for the energy to act on. In fact, this analogy gives you the advantage, since a tornado has a good deal more structure available than raw energy does.

    If you sent a trillion tornados, one at a time, through the same junkyard, would you expect a working B52 to form as a result?

    My answer: I would expect it to form a very fine metallic sand. Your answer?

    OK, let's abandon illustrations connected with reality, and start giving you som serious ground. If you sent a trillion tornados through a trillion junkyards, would you expect to see a working B52 formed? Would it help to re-run the experiment a trillion times?

    My answers: no, and no. Your answers?

    If you sent a trillion tornados across a trillion copies of the biggest B52 junkyard in the world, would you expect to get a working B52 in the process? Or even something that flew under its own power, maybe a mutant with nineteen jet engines (three of which worked) and seven wings?

    My answers: no, and no. Your answer?

    Let's go back to that most popular of analogies, the infinite number of monkeys.

    We don't have an infinite number of monkeys, so let's consider a very large number of them. Their task is to type out The Origin of Species, starting with the title. We'll use Golden Tamarinds, because they're small, and pack them and a little typewriter into a cage 10cm on a side. Given a surface area of 500,000,000 square kilometers, if we paved the entire Earth, oceans too, with cages, we'd fit 50,000,000,000,000,000 (5x10^15) cages on Earth. Let's stack those a kilometer high to get 5x10^19 cages. We don't know how many planets there are in the universe, but let's guess that there are 10^22, roughly one for every single star in the universe, and that they're Earth-sized. Cover those with tamarinds too. We're up to 5x10^41 tamarinds - oh, the plumbing...! Being fast little buggers, they type ten random characters a second, so we have 5x10^42 random keystrokes available every second to apply to our manuscript. That's a lot of keystrokes!

    The title of Darwin's work is `On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life.' That's 21 words in 119 characters, and a boring typewriter keyboard like this one has 63 symbols available. We'll tape over keys like tab, carriage return and backspace because layout is of no interest to us. Because we don't want to spend forever dithering around about how often a tamarind will hit shifted keys, or how much favour the spacebar gets because it's bigger, or ASDFGHJKL get because they're central - and also to maintain that typing speed - we'll arrange those 63 symbols in a "mammary" style keyboard with equal-sized unshifted keys and an equal chance of each being hit.

    Ready to roll... each keystroke stands a 1/63 chance of being the right one, so it will take an average of a bit over 10^214 keystrokes to complete the title. Dividing by 5x10^42 gives 2x10^171 seconds to type out the heading... but the universe is less

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    1. Re:Energy != structure by Dylan+Zimmerman · · Score: 1

      Really, typing and making DNA aren't very comparable. There are only a few ways in which atoms can combine and our amino acids happen to be a rather low energy form. Much lower than, say, buckminsterfullerenes. Those take 60 carbon atoms in a very precise formation to make. Surely you don't deny that they are produced quite often by chance.

      The two would be more comparable if the monkeys had 114 keys and they could only hit them in particular combinations. Last I heard that was how many we had, and that includes elements not found in nature. If you only use the natural elements, it's more like 70.

      Carbon triple bonding is very rare, so it would have a much smaller chance of being hit than double or single bonds. Oxygen is extremely electronegative, so it bonds readily and it creates a very polar covalent bond. That attracts yet more reactive material. Hydrogen is the most common element in the universe, so it would be hit approximately 95% of the time, but it can bond with almost anything.

      There are a great many rules governing these basic reactions. Similarly, there are a great many rules governing the creation of sentences. A better analogy than the monkey one might be taking humans and having them type complete phrases (out of a possible vocabulary of 114 words with very specific grammar) until you get the phrase 'On the Origin Of Species'. Chemical reactions are most certainly NOT random.

      Now, as for the tornado analogy, I agree, it seems rather impossible. I've always seen it with 747s instead of B52s, but there isn't much difference. It is flawed in that metal parts can be broken down whereas atoms cannot (at least, not under natural circumstances) and a junkyard can contain an almost infinite variety of parts, whereas the universe only has 114 known to us, many of which are man-made and do not exist for more than a few billionths of a second.

      Again, assume only 114 parts from which a B52 is built. Each part can only attach to another in a particular way. You would almost surely get small machines that performed some useful function. These are roughly equivalent to our molecules.

      I am not trying to demonstrate that complex organisms will inevitably arise from such reactions, I am just trying to point out that DNA (or something like it) is actually fairly likely to appear given the raw materials and plenty of time.

    2. Re:Energy != structure by leonbrooks · · Score: 1

      I am not trying to demonstrate that complex organisms will inevitably arise from such reactions, I am just trying to point out that DNA (or something like it) is actually fairly likely to appear given the raw materials and plenty of time.

      To cut a long story short, the experts in various fields who have actually done realistic calculations or experiments say no.

      For (a classic) example, after the Urey/Miller experiments, Stanley Miller followed up. Google for it if you're interested, but for political reasons don't expect the headlines that greeted his first big experimentt. Far from eliminating the recemisation problem, he established that it was pretty much insurmountable (as were all others). He was also unable to produce any but a few of the simplest amino acids, even racemised, using ignredients-plus-energy experiments. Although the aminos generally represent local minima, most of them have fairly tall maxima on any reasonable "approach" to that minimum. This was (is) very disappointing to Miller; he still holds as an article of faith that spontaneous generation does happen, but has no explanation for how.

      It's also sad-but-true that the conditions required for producing amino acids (to say nothing of more complex products) are also fairly hostile to their survival. It's even more frustrating than the bowling-ball-on-curved-rails arcade game in that if you put enough energy into the ball to get it over the first hump, you also put enough in to get it back over the first hump - in real-life chemistry, the hump is asymmetrical (the ball rolls out more readily than it rolls in). Complex chemicals are easier to break than to make.

      In living biochemistry, the methods of producing and combining complex chemicals are radically different from those proposed for random formation from raw chemicals. To cut another long story short, it looks plausible on the surface but in implementation is high implausible. And of course a lot of people really, really want to believe that it is plausible, each for their own reasons and none of those reasons (that I've seen yet) are really related to doing raw science.

      Now, as for the tornado analogy, I agree, it seems rather impossible. I've always seen it with 747s instead of B52s, but there isn't much difference. It is flawed in that metal parts can be broken down whereas atoms cannot (at least, not under natural circumstances) and a junkyard can contain an almost infinite variety of parts, whereas the universe only has 114 known to us, many of which are man-made and do not exist for more than a few billionths of a second.

      Nit to pick: if you count lightning and cosmic rays as a `natural circumstances', each of them can indeed provoke transmutation. Given the amount of "lightning" (electrical discharge) damage that Mars has taken (it's the only force that explains almost all of the characteristics of Valles Marineris - but nobody's got around to figuring out how it happened yet), that may be an avenue worth pursuing.

      At the level of the anology, the atoms are (very) like unto the steel, copper, aluminium, plastic, rubber, leather etc of which the B52 is built. An individual component like a bolt or a lens might equate to an amino acid (some structure, but not much). A slightly complex part like an electric motor or guage might correspond to a protein, a very complex part like a bombsight or a jet engine might correspond to a set of genes.

      Sigh, I did want to avoid getting stuck in the detail, but in it's own way it's interesting.

      Two successive tornadoes might be useful to your cause in that the first one frees up more random small parts (at the boilt and lens level) for the second one to fill gaps with. But what a B52 does is nothing like as complex as, say, E. coli or any other complete single-celled lifeform. It doesn't, for example, self

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  19. Mathematics 103 by leonbrooks · · Score: 1
    It's still ridiculous to attempt to calculate the probability because there are virtually an infinite number of possible cases.

    Not exactly, and the difference between "very many" and "virtually infinite" is a crucial one.

    If in practically every example you can find or analogy you can invent, the probability is always negative, zero or infinitesimal, this is an indication (not a proof, but certainly an indication) that in reality the probability is effectively zero (-: "or less" :-)

    As I mentioned, it's also important that "lots" is not the same as "infinite". If you can fine your answers down to within, say, 5000 orders of magnitude <grin> then side-issues that only count for a hundred or so orders of magnitude are - in the statistical sense - insignificant.

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