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Globe Warmer In Time of Vikings

SEWilco writes "A record of recent global temperatures has been assembled by piecing together the hundreds of studies with past temperature estimates [Discovery, Harvard]. The record shows there was a "Medieval Warm Period" warmer than the 20th Century. This was followed by the "Little Ice Age", which ended around 1900. We're having average climate now. Numerous sources indicated this, but apparently were not gathered into one document" This adds some more background reading to the previously linked Telegraph story.

16 of 93 comments (clear)

  1. In too deep now... by heldlikesound · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This isssue has be politicized to the point that even with the three or four recent findings that seem to support the case that our quickness to attribute shifts in climate to the actions of man may be completely off base, the side screaming bloody murder for the last 10 years will never admit that they may have been wrong.

    Having said that, I am sympathetic to the evironmental movement, there's just nothing I hate more than bad science that persists due to politics.

    --


    Cloud City Digital: DVD Production at its cheapest/finest
    1. Re:In too deep now... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No offense, but I'd say *you* are engaging in poor science. You yourself use words like "seem" and "may be" (and I do like how you chose to bold the next word, de-emphasizing the speculative nature of the results), but you insist that people who don't immediately admit that they may have been wrong are bad scientists. This is very poor reasoning on your part.

      Look at what's been shown: it *might* be the case that Earth's climate has shifted rather rapidly in the past. Without seeing the details of the study and not being myself an expert in the field, I think most of us will accept that. So what? So Earth's climate may have changed rapidly in the past. There have been mass extinctions in the past too (the Cretacious-Tertiary event, for one), but that doesn't mean mankind isn't responsible for the current massive number of extinctions planet-wide.

      In fact, it's worse that that. There are many studies showing that the warming probably *is* anthropogenic. The warning trend tracks smack-on with the rise in atmospheric CO2, for one thing. There are studies on glaciers that must have been quite cold for millenia, but are now suddenly warming up. Computer models - starting with the basic physics, mind you - show the same warming trend. We have a mechanism that points to human involvement, we have evidence that it is humans and we have evidence that this hasn't happened in the past.

      You bring in three or four new studies which don't even actually contradict the anthropogenic theory and expect people to just suddenly change their views, especially when those new studies don't do anything to explain away the previous results as *non*-anthropogenic? I'd be disappointed with any of my fellow scientists who *did* suddenly switch views based on such poor arguments.

      The fact is, politics or not, scientists very rarely suddenly drop old theories and embrace new ones. Evidence seldom comes in so strongly that it makes sense to do so. Usually, it's a slow trickle of data, often over decades, that shift views.

    2. Re: In too deep now... by Black+Parrot · · Score: 4, Insightful


      > This isssue has be politicized to the point that even with the three or four recent findings that seem to support the case that our quickness to attribute shifts in climate to the actions of man may be completely off base, the side screaming bloody murder for the last 10 years will never admit that they may have been wrong.

      > Having said that, I am sympathetic to the evironmental movement, there's just nothing I hate more than bad science that persists due to politics.

      Thing is, we have good sound physics to explain how various gas mixtures deal with radiated heat, and we have good sound evidence that the amounts of some of the relevant gasses in the atmosphere have grown exponentially as civilization has progressed.

      Where's the bad science you're talking about? Do you dispute scientists' claims about the role of atmospheric gasses in the temperatures of other planets?

      Just because the earth's temperature fluctuates as a background noise, doesn't mean we should ignore what we're doing to the atmosphere. Yes, distinguishing signal from noise is going to be difficult until the signal is so strong we're fuxored. But there's lots of good science in this beyond the daily weather report.

      --
      Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
    3. Re: In too deep now... by taphu · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Your misquotation of Schneider total changes what he was trying to say.
      I don't understand how this is a misquotation. Considering your expanded version of the quote, several things are clear:
      • He has some data.
      • He has drawn some noteworthy conclusion from that data (i.e. there is a risk of potentially disastrous climatic change)
      • He is not 100 percent certain about the conclusion (he would not talk of failing to mention doubts otherwise). Yes, he may be 99% certain, but not 100%.
      • He feels that in order to win broadbased support, he must overstate his confidence in his conclusion (he SAYS this explicitly, don't try to hedge here).
      • Contrapositivly, he feels that if he does NOT overstate his confidence in his conclusion (aka. if he tells the truth AS EVEN HE SEES IT), he will NOT win broadbased support (aka. whoever it is that makes "broadbased support" will disagree with his conclusion, even if they have full access to the data that convinced HIM).
      I fail to see how this "misquotation" in any way changes what he is trying to say.

      I also agree with the previous poster's very reasonable conclusion that the reason this person would consider lying to us is that he regards himself as smarter than the people he is lying to, and that he does indeed think there is a very low chance that we will discover his lie.
  2. Hmmm by Henry+V+.009 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Too late. In Western societies, more people believe in Global Warming than believe in God. It is to good a story to stay anything but the global boogeyman it is.

  3. Research sponsored by who? by Glass+of+Water · · Score: 4, Insightful
    The trolling was quite predictable on this one. If you RTFA, you'll note that:
    The study - funded by NASA, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the American Petroleum Institute - will be published in the Energy and Environment journal.
    (from the Harvard article)
    I think the conclusion hastily drawn by many of my fellow slashdotters is an example of post hoc ergo propter hoc. In other words, the argument that is being made goes like this: Global warming is caused by a factor other than pollution. Therefore, pollution does not cause global warming.

    That said, I agree that bandwagon environmentalism is a bad trend. It does not seem, however, that the current US administration is in danger of subverting our economy with overzealous environmental regulation.

    --
    There are no trolls. There are no trees out here.
    1. Re:Research sponsored by who? by jellisky · · Score: 3, Insightful

      In other words, the argument that is being made goes like this: Global warming is caused by a factor other than pollution. Therefore, pollution does not cause global warming.
      --------------

      Hate to break it to you, but that argument is perfectly valid since it's just a restatement of the first statement. It's a perfectly valid and logical argument.

      If the argument went:
      Global warming in this study is caused by a factor other than pollution; therefore, pollution does no cause global warming.
      then there'd be a logical fallacy.

      I'm also not seeing where your post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy is occuring. Perhaps you are insinuating that the scientists in the study are claiming that, since pollution is a modern effect and there was global warming before modern times, pollution was not a factor in the climate change, and thus, is not a factor in global warming at all. From what I read of the articles, I don't see any place where they say that pollution is NOT a factor in current climate. The insinuation of the articles seems to be that perhaps we are overestimating pollution's effect on the climate system, which is not a bad insinuation given recent studies on the carbon dioxide budget (see almost anything published by Dr. Scott Denning over the last two years). As for the /.ers making logical fallacies, let's just say that I wouldn't be surprised... but your example leaves much to be desired.

      As an atmospheric scientist, I've seen enough global warming results from people on both sides of the fence that I feel comfortable saying something that may surprise many people: we don't have enough of a clue of what's going on to make any sort of accurate prediction of climate. These big old climate models that run for months on our supercomputers aren't very useful since they rely on so many parametrizations. And how these parametrizations are implemented can seriously affect the results of the models. We're finding out that the climate is so chaotic over even long times with averaging that prediction is difficult, at best. But, we're making strides in understanding the feedback mechanisms that are present... slowly but surely. In other words, expect even the most basic ideas of the climate scientists to be in constant flux for another decade or two. Climate science is much like nuclear science was during the beginning of the 1900's.

      -Jellisky

  4. Re: What I don't get. . . by Bastian · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Is why so many people seem to want to oversimplify the situation.

    As with any set of data, it's not all signal and it's not all noise. Much of the research in global warming may be due to political motive. (Though personally, I'm not inclined to agree that environmentalism is a purely political issue. I have a lot of reasons to be concerned by the idea that Florida might start shrinking in the next century, and none of them have to do with politics.) However, the focus of all the stuff I've heard about lately is on trying to figure out just how much of the change in global climate over the past century is due to natural fluctuation and how much is due to pollution.

    Besides, even if it turns out to be entirely due to nautural fluctuation, it seems that it would be in our best interests to still modify the actions of humanity as a whole to promote a global climate that is best suited to humans. People don't think irrigation is a stupid idea because Mother Nature didn't put a body of water in the middle of every cornfield. The issue at hand should be what action is ultimately the most beneficial to the world.

  5. Re:One Word: Bull by Dausha · · Score: 2, Insightful

    . . . it's certainly the biggest [thing] since writing was invented.

    Fortunately, writing is a relatively new invention in the history of the Universe. IIRC, if that History were compacted in a day, then humanity is the last few seconds before midnight. So, writing was invented 'just a second ago.'

    --
    What those who want activist courts fear is rule by the people.
  6. Re:Bush and Kyoto by Dausha · · Score: 2, Insightful

    But, I thought the US Senate was supposed to ratify treaties--not the President. If so, then blaming President Bush ignores US law. I found this article that indirectly brings up this point.

    For your reading pleasure, I also cite an article from the opposing viewpoint stating why the treaty is not in the short- or long-term interests of the United States. Additionally, the article futher points to the Senate's perogative in ratification of treaties, stating, "[t]hough the Senate hasn't ratified the treaty . . . ."

    So, please place blame with the agency responsible. If the US Senate does not ratify a treaty, then it is not valid. Oddly enough, some Geneva Convention articles did not pass the US Senate in the 1950s.

    --
    What those who want activist courts fear is rule by the people.
  7. you are completely missing the point by g4dget · · Score: 2, Insightful
    We already know that earth, at times, was much hotter than it is now, and at other times, was much colder. But just because it may have been hotter during the middle ages doesn't mean that climate change was or is harmless or unavoidable. Even the natural climate changes over the last few millennia have caused empires to crumble, diseases to spread, and cultures to disappear. If we are already on a warming trend, all the more reason not to contribute to it further through human activity.

    In any case, the argument against greenhouse gas emissions has little to do with the past; it's a concern about plausible (but uncertain) events in the future. At the rate at which carbon dioxide emissions are growing, we will change the climate some time this or next century; that is simple physics. Furthermore, it takes a long time for the levels to come down again, so we will have to live with the consequences of our actions. The only discussion is when exactly that change will occur, how big it will be, and how much warning we will get. Since there are plausible models that say that change will happen pretty soon and will have serious consequences, it seems prudent to take precautions.

    The real question is why some people are so eager to engage in an experiment with our climate on a global scale by continuing to emit huge quantities of greenhouse gases. Oddly enough, it is many self-proclaimed "conservatives" that advocate engaging in this kind of completely unprecedented behavior.

    The thing that is "off base" is simply to drag historical records into this discussion at all--they are largely irrelevant to whether we should or should not reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  8. Re: What I don't get. . . by PhilHibbs · · Score: 2, Insightful
    ...it would be in our best interests to still modify the actions of humanity as a whole to promote a global climate that is best suited to humans.
    Sure, but lets make sure we aren't wearing blinkers when we consider "best suited to humans". We need a working ecosystem, which means that sometimes our direct short-term interests are outweighed by our long-term interests. So, slow down on that oil use until we have alternatives lined up. Stop hunting those endangered species, they'll be extinct soon (and us in the west, we need to help Africa to do this, they don't have enough information to make an informed decision, and often don't have realistic alternatives). Keep those greenhouse gas emissions down, until we can be sure what the consequences are. Careful with that deforesting (which means: don't buy hardwood furniture), because it isn't sustainable at the current rate.
  9. Re:Bush and Kyoto by Josh+Booth · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's funny how many environmentalists want everyone to switch to electic cars. The problem is that the electricity comes from coal and oil burning power plants that are far worse than the heavily regulated gasoline cars.

  10. Re: What I don't get. . . by sigep_ohio · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I agree with you. I think people(western society) tend to only look at their actions impact in the short term if at all. Our actions long term impact is what we will be remembered in the future by, if humanity survives long enough. Do we really want to be remembered as a culture that raped the land, and left nothing for its children? Or maybe we could be remembered as a culture with enough foresight to take action in preserving our little home in the stars for future civilizations to enjoy.

    --
    Beer Die is the game of champions Learning To walk my own path.
  11. Re:One Word: Bull by jackjumper · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Don't be so quick. The vikings abandoned their greenland settlements when the temperature dropped.

  12. Re:Bush and Kyoto by Veramocor · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The idea to switching to electric cars(if an efficient battery design was ever created) is that a large gas turbine power plant is more efficent than your typical diesel or otto cycle engine. Furthemore its easier to clean up pollutants such as particulates, SO2, NOX, from a single source then it is from 1000,s of cars.

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    Veramocor